A white Christmas will be a U.S. rarity in 2011; November the globe's 12th warmest
A white Christmas will be a rarity across most of the U.S. this year, as December temperatures have been more typical of November, and very little snow has fallen. Large portions of the eastern half of the country have been more than 4°F above average so far in December, with temperatures averaging 8°F above average over portions of North Dakota.This is quite a switch from the previous two winters, which were both much colder and snowier than average. All three winters featured La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, so that cannot explain the difference. A key reason for the December warmth this year and the cold and snowy Decembers of 2010 and 2009 is a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average over the 30-day period ending on December 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
Figure 2. Top: snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2011, after a month with a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Bottom: Snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2010, after a month with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.
The Arctic Oscillation and its influence on winter weather
The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, the AO and NAO control the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive AO/NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild winter in the U.S. and Western Europe. Positive AO/NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative AO/NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative AO/NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, but leads to very warm conditions in the Arctic, since all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic gets replaced by warm air flowing poleward. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO and AO since record keeping began in 1865; a very extreme AO/NAO also developed during the winter of 2010 - 2011. But this year, the pattern has flipped. The AO has been almost as strong, but in the opposite sense--a positive AO, leading to very warm conditions over the U.S. Unfortunately, the AO is difficult to predict more than a week or two and advance, and we don't understand why the AO can vary so much from winter to winter. The latest predictions from the ECMWF and GFS models show this positive AO pattern continuing for at least the next ten days. Real winter conditions won't arrive in the U.S. until the first week of January, at the earliest. Between now and the end of 2011, the only major winter storm the GFS model expects in the U.S. will be in the Pacific Northwest, on December 30 - 31.
This week, NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine posted an excellent tutorial on the Arctic Oscillation and how it is affecting our winter weather this year.
Figure 3. The departure of temperature from average in Centigrade during the November - December - January period during various phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive AO conditions lead to warm winters in the U.S., while negative AO conditions lead to cold winters. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
November 2011: Earth's 12th warmest on record
November 2011 was the globe's 12th warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). November 2011 global land temperatures were the 16th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 20th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the November 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.
Figure 4. Departure of temperature from average for November 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
A warm November for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., November ranked as the 25th warmest November in the 117-year record. Thirteen states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest recorded a top-ten warmest November, and no states had a top-ten coldest November. Eight states had a top-ten wettest November--Indiana, Ohio, Missouri,Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. One state had a top-ten driest month, Minnesota. Texas had its 39th driest November on record, keeping 76% of Texas under extreme to exceptional drought as of December 13, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
A weak La Niña continues
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during the first half of December. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.
Arctic sea ice extent third lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its third lowest on record in November, behind 2006 and 2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice records date back to 1979.
Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.
Posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster
This will be my last post until Tuesday. Have a great holiday, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Oh wait, nevermind, I live in Florida.. where its 85 degrees out in THE MIDDLE OF WINTER.
LOL
ya know, we are only a few days into official winter..the middle would be more around early febuary:)
lol. get your point tho, i was sweating today in shorts and a t-shirt working here in central NC, felt like 75...
My website traffic counter DOES NOT count me. yay lol
Tropical Cyclone Advice #17
Tropical Low 04U
4:00 PM CST December 24 2011
===================================
At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low 04U (997 hPa) located at 10.8S 131.4E or 135 km west northwest of Croker Island and 190 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest slowly.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Sunday. It should remain slow moving north of the coast over the next 18 to 24 hours before moving south. It is likely to move into the Van Diemen Gulf early Monday with a possible landfall east of Darwin later on Monday.
GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop between Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands, Cape Don and Croker Island, early on Sunday.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h may develop if the cyclone continues to intensify, affecting parts of the coast between Snake Bay and Croker Island, late on Sunday.
Darwin may experience GALES on Sunday night on the edge of the tropical cyclone as it passes to the east. GALES may also extend inland to Jabiru on Monday.
GALES may extend further east to Nhulunbuy on Monday if the tropical cyclone takes a more easterly path.
HEAVY RAIN is is expected to cause localized flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur districts. The Territory Controller advises residents from Snake Bay to Croker Island, including Cape Don, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
Residents of remaining areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi should now make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use. For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
The Territory Controller advices residents of Darwin and Rural Areas that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi including the Tiwi Islands and Darwin
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy and inland to Jabiru
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 10.9S 131.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 12.4S 132.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 13.5S 133.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
Additional Information
======================
System currently located north of Cape Don based on consensus between surface observations, visible imagery and Berrimah radar. Nearly stationary. Fix quality is improving.
Dvorak analysis yields DT 2.5 based on a poor 0.4 spiral wrap. MET 3.0 with PT adjusted down to 2.5. FT based on PT. ASCAT pass indicated 25/30 knots winds in west near Tiwi Islands.
Model guidance is becoming more consistent, with slow movement in the short term due to system being balanced between the monsoon westerlies to the north and the mid-level ridge to the south. Models start weakening that ridge later on Sunday, leading to movement of the system south to land and then east towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, as the monsoon westerlies become the dominant steering influence. GFS remains the outlier with eastward movement in the short term. Track forecast is based on shifted consensus of NWP models other than GFS.
Environment remains favorable for development with low vertical shear, plentiful vorticity in the monsoon trough, good upper outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. Expectation is that TC intensity will be reached in 12 hours.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..
Thank you blog for keeping me entertained and informed this year. It's been tough for sure, 2011 has not been kind :( so hopefully next year will be better.
Be safe, healthy and happy
cheers and beers
Kty
It's fascinating to look at the snowfall forecast maps and realize that the areas that are most likely to get any snow at all are above 6000 feet....
Here in Naples, I've had the A/C running all night; it's too warm and humid to open the windows right now. Even the 10-day forecast shows highs from the mid 70s to low 80s for the duration, so no real cold can be expected until the middle or end of the first week in January at the earliest. Yesterday was our 34th out of the last 40--and 15th consecutive--above normal.
Ho, ho, ho...
Oh...sorry. Given some of the posts on here I just assumed the usual. That's what I get for not reading the whole thread through. :P
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
Tropical Low 04U
10:00 PM CST December 24 2011
===================================
At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low 04U (996 hPa) located at 10.8S 131.9E or 85 km west northwest of Croker Island and 210 km north northeast of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 2 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone tonight. It should remain slow moving north of the coast over the next 12 to 24 hours before moving south. It is likely to move into the Van Diemen Gulf early Monday with a possible landfall east of Darwin later on Monday.
GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop between Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands, Cape Don and Croker Island, tonight.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h may develop if the cyclone continues to intensify, affecting parts of the coast between Snake Bay and Croker Island on Sunday night.
Darwin may experience GALES on Sunday night and Monday on the edge of the tropical cyclone as it passes to the east. GALES may also extend inland to Jabiru on Monday.
GALES may extend further east to Nhulunbuy on Monday if the tropical cyclone takes a more easterly path.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Don and Goulburn Island. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localized flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur Districts. The Territory Controller advises residents from west of Goulburn Island to Snake Bay, including Cape Don to TAKE SHELTER NOW.
Residents of remaining areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi should now make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
The Territory Controller advices residents of Darwin and Rural Areas that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
REPEATING: Residents from west of Goulburn Island to Snake Bay, including Cape Don, are advised to TAKE SHELTER NOW.
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi including the Tiwi Islands and Darwin
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy and inland to Jabiru
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 11.3S 132.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 12.9S 132.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.8S 133.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
Additional Information
======================
System currently located north of Cobourg Peninsula based on consensus between surface observations, infrared imagery and Berrimah radar. Very slow eastward movement is evident on radar and satellite imagery. Fix quality is improving.
Dvorak analysis yields DT 2.5 based on a 0.4 spiral wrap. FT based on PT= MET = 2.5. Recent ASCAT pass indicated 25/30 knots winds in west near Tiwi Islands.
Model guidance shows slow movement in the short term due to system being balanced between the monsoon westerlies to the north and the mid-level ridge to the south. Models start weakening the ridge later on Sunday, leading to movement of the system south to land and then east towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, as the monsoon westerlies become the dominant steering influence. OOZ runs of UKMO, NOGAPS, GFDN favor a southwesterly track, but with little meteorological support, this seems unlikely to eventuate. GFS on the other hand, has an excessively rapid eastward movement in the short term. Track forecast is based on shifted consensus of NWP models other than GFS, NOGAPS, GFDN.
Environment remains favorable for development with low vertical shear, plentiful vorticity in the monsoon trough, good upper outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. Expectation is that TC intensity will be reached in 3 to 6 hours.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST December 24 2011
===================================
The low pressure area over southern parts of southeast Bay of Bengal now lies as a well marked low pressure area over the same region. The system would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours and move in a west northwesterly direction initially.
Wishing you and Your's the Very Best this Christmas Season.
Merry Christmas from Uptown NOLA
Have a nice day, everybody!
Nice spin going on in the Central Atlantic.
Merry Christmas, WU!
Took the words right out of my hand, mouth and keyboard!!!!!
The image says it all... lol
Since so few have real snow for tomorrow, I dug out this 2006 picture from Montana's Road Webcams to share...
Looks like most of the Rockies have snow. Guess that's the place to go for skiing and stuff during the holiday season...
Link
Not sure if I like the idea of someone his age running a country with nearly global bad relations and nuclear weapons...could turn out pretty bad.
Merry Christmas!
Current weather conditions, in Houston, Texas, is 47 degrees. Solid overcast, slightly breezy and with a 100% chance of rain. The rain, I will guess, is Houston's Christmas present. Thank You!
I wish to thank each of you for your many splendid posts, knowledge, companionship and general great fun. The present I wish to give to us all is a Very Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and may 2012 be the best year of your life. May we all remain safe, happy and well! .. I look forward to seeing each of you in the coming year. To my extended family, on this blog, all the best!
Merry Christmas, Dr. Masters!
How high up are you?
Kim Jong-Un?
Kim Young-un?
Kim the Un-dead?
Kim the Commie Zombie?
Santa getting close. In Pakistan now. Heading for Karachi.
Kelley
Current location
Mazar-e Sharif, Afghanistan
wow
how march snow do you have ? and is that snow falling ?
I didn't.
Scroll over to my blog to see it, and Cindy's, which was released a few days ago.
Will they let him through customs?
~500-700 feet. Normally, temperatures here are about 5-10 degrees cooler during winter.
Aibonito, Puerto Rico is Puerto Rico's highest town at 2,401 feet and has been as low as 40F.
So far in Valdez this season (began snowing Halloween):
Snowfall for the Past Week
15 inches
Snowfall for the Month So Far
112 inches
61.5 inches above normal
Snowfall for the Season
184 inches
79 inches above normal
Snowload in Pounds per Square Foot
72 lbs
Our yard is a variety of 5-6 feet with drifts much higher. We are expecting a white Christmas tomorrow :)
This picture taken this morning :)
idk it could be close whether you get a white christmas ;)
AND THE BEST IN THE NEW YEAR YET TO COME
REGARDS
KOTG.
Thanks for this, Articuno.
Your welcome.
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