Category 4 Kenneth the strongest East Pacific late-season hurricane on record
Hurricane Kenneth has intensified into an impressive Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds in the Eastern Pacific. Kenneth is by far the strongest hurricane to appear so late in the season in the Eastern Pacific; the previous record was held by Hurricane Winnie of December 5, 1983, a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. There has not been an Atlantic hurricane as strong as Kenneth this late in the season, either; the latest of the seven November major hurricanes in the Atlantic was Hurricane Kate of November 21, 1985 (120 mph winds). Since 1949, here have been just three named storms that have formed in the Eastern Pacific after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983.
Kenneth is over 27°C waters and under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could conceivably intensify further. However, I expect the storm has peaked, since it's tough for a hurricane to get much stronger than Kenneth's current intensity with ocean temperatures so close to the 26.5°C hurricane formation threshold. Satellite loops show an impressive storm with a large eye, good symmetry, and plenty of upper-level outflow. The relative lack of spiral bands and large, thick eyewall may qualify Kenneth to be a rare breed of hurricanes known as "annular". Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that are significantly stronger, maintain their peak intensities longer, and weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. The latest SHIPS model output indicates that Kenneth has passed the initial screening step to be considered an annular hurricane. Only 4% of all hurricanes are annular hurricanes.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Kenneth.
Unnamed tropical storm from September 2 brings the Atlantic's 2011 tally to 19
Re-analysis has shown that a tropical disturbance that formed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia on September 2 briefly attained tropical storm status, according to an article posted yesterday by Ken Kaye at SunSentinel.com, quoting NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell. The addition of the unnamed tropical storm to the record books brings this year's tally of named storms to nineteen, tying 2011 with 2010, 1995, and 1887 as the 3rd busiest year for tropical storms. Only 2005 and 1933 had more named storms since record keeping began in 1851. An average season has just eleven named storms. Here's my blog entry from September 2 on the unnamed tropical storm:
A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.
In addition, the Atlantic has gained one more hurricane for the year, as Nate was upgraded to a hurricane in post-season analysis. Nate hit Mexico's Bay of Campeche coast near Veracruz on September 11 as a weak tropical storm. The storm killed five people and caused minor damage near Veracruz. Nate brings this year's tally of hurricanes to seven, one hurricane above average.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Invest 99L in the Atlantic moving over colder waters
In the Atlantic, Invest 99L, an extratropical storm in the middle Atlantic that is generating tropical storm-force winds, has moved over colder waters of 24°C and is looking less tropical than yesterday. The storm is moving northeastwards out to sea and over even colder waters, and is not a threat to any land areas. NHC is giving 99L a 10% chance of becoming a named subtropical storm.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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maybe we should make another account and talk trash to ourselves xD
LOL
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/(username)/ignor euser.html
adding your username to the list. (Remember, this is not recommended) XD
99L is a nothing.
I would laugh if someone tried it and couldn't undo it.
XD
here i go. if you dont here from me for 24 hours, that means i couldnt undo it and are making SPLbeater2 lol
1:00 PM PST Tue Nov 22
Location: 12.6N 114.9W
Max sustained: 145 mph
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb
if it was any other time of the year he probably would have gone straight for cat5.
My biggest question is how do they have more info in retrospect than they had at the time. I mean, excluding landfalling systems and systems that peaked in between advisories, wouldn't they still be working with the same data?
Edit: Katrina was down graded.. at landfall anyway.
The National Hurricane Center will be debating the October system that affected Florida next week...So we may get 20 named storms.
The reason storms are usually upgraded is because the NHC is conservative when it comes to classifying and analyzing storms. If something is on the border between TS/Cat1, they'll classify it as a TS and check back later to see. Main reason behind this is they don't want the public to lose their trust in them.
If anything, their conservative bias causes them to name fewer storms and hurricanes. Since they are considerably conservative during the season itself, when it comes to the post season analysis of storms they tend to upgrade more storms than downgrade them.
Reams of data are gathered about any storm as it's going on. As conscientious as the folks at the NHC try to be, it's sometimes impossible to process all those data in real time. But once the season is over--or at least winding down--each storm's data is looked over at leisure. And since the NHC tends to err on the side of being conservative the majority of the time, more often than not they discover new data after the fact that necessitates an upgrade.
There were a number of storms last year that weren't downgraded, but did have their maximum windspeed lowered in the post-season.
If those evil meteorologists were going to "generate data to help correlate storm frequency and intensity with the global warming phenomenon", why would they stop at 19 storms? Why not manufacture a 2005 every year?
As some have noted before, for every person who wonders whether the NHC is classifying storms to fulfill some mysterious GW mandate, there's someone else who wonders whether the NHC is failing to classify storms for opposite but equally nefarious reasons. Maybe both sides should get together and talk out their differences. ;-)
Exception of 3: Fernanda, TD Eight-E, and TD Twelve-E
How long have you lived there. So far Orlando is .4 degrees BELOW average for the month of November ...
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=mlb
select preliminary monthly climate data to see for yourself
TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) data was used to show the line of severe thunderstorms in 3-D. The line of storms were pushing through North and South Carolina on Nov. 16, 2011. Strong updrafts had pushed precipitation within some of these storms to heights of 15km (9.3 miles). Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce
32 years which is my age. It has been hot here. Temps have been in the mid 80's many days but the difference is these 65 to 75 degree dewpoints which has helped kick in the heat index.
Bedford Nova Scotia... up to a foot forcasted!
purty sure your not serious...thats an insult lol
that's just what happens when you live on a peninsula, surrounded by 70+ degree water ....
According to AP’s Seth Borenstein, that’s “higher than the worst case scenario outlined by climate experts just four years ago.” He’s talking about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, which is, if anything, considered "conservative" in its projections of future catastrophe by many climate scientists. Put another way, we’re talking more greenhouse gases than have entered the Earth’s atmosphere in tens of millions of years.
Probably the most worrying quote on the article.
In other words, we are no longer asking if you want toast. We are asking, "What would like on your toast?".
I agree but the air is usually a lot drier come November. The humidity makes a huge difference.
No comment? ;-)
No. I have always been told that I am pretty thoughtless.
Consider some Asian news... (new posible war scenario)
Flash-point: China issues warning to India on disputes in the South China Sea
Link
or what about some European news...
Perfect Storm the Most Likely Scenario; Is Europe Set to Declare a Chapter 11 in Early 2012?
Link
lol....wait, red from laughter or somethin else? xD
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