Tropical Storm Rina forms
Tropical Storm Rina formed in the Western Caribbean Sea just off the coast of Honduras last night, and is headed north-northwest towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Rina's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to seventeen, making it the 7th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005, 1933, 1995, 1887, 2010, and 1969 had more named storms. However, 2011 has had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. Only 29% of this year's named storms have made it to hurricane strength (five), and normally 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for this very unusual occurrence.
Visible satellite loops show that Rina has had a respectable burst of thunderstorm activity with high, cold cloud tops this morning. This "Central Dense Overcast" (CDO) is characteristic of intensifying tropical storms that are a threat to reach hurricane strength. Rina has been bringing sporadic heavy rain squalls to the Cayman Islands over the past day; George Town on Grand Cayman Island had received 2.28" of rain and a peak wind gust of 31 mph as of 9 am EDT from the storm. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina's southeast side, inhibiting heavy thunderstorm development there. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. We don't have any surface wind reports from the vicinity of Rina; the closest buoy is Western Caribbean buoy 42057, about 60 miles east of Rina's center, which had top sustained winds out of the ESE at 29 mph this morning. We'll have to wait for the next hurricane hunter flight, scheduled for 2 pm this afternoon, to get a better idea of Rina's intensity.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Rina.
Forecast for Rina
The intensity forecast for Rina has a high amount of uncertainty. Rina should be able to slowly intensify through Tuesday, becoming a strong tropical storm. On Wednesday, Rina will be approaching a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since Rina is a small storm, these hostile conditions could cause the storm to dissipate on Wednesday as it nears landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models. The completely opposite scenario is predicted by the GFDL and HWRF models, which forecast Rina will stay just south of the high shear/dry air region, and attain major hurricane status. The official NHC forecast of a Category 1 Hurricane Rina late this week is a reasonable compromise between these extremes. The track forecast for Rina also presents difficulties. A west-northwest to northwest motion towards the Yucatan Peninsula is likely through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, but the models are increasingly suggesting that Rina will not be far enough north to get caught up in the trough, but instead will remain trapped in the Western Caribbean. None of the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) model runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, or HWRF models are predicting that Rina's center will make it north of Cuba during the next five days. In any case, heavy rains from Rina should begin affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, and extreme Western Cuba on Wednesday.
97L
A broad region of low pressure about 300 miles west of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L), is moving west-northwest at 10 mph through the Caribbean Sea. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air, and no signs of a surface circulation. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L is under low wind shear less than 10 knots, and this shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By the time 97L reaches the region between Jamaica and Nicaragua in the Central Caribbean on Thursday or Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression. The NOGAPS model predicts 97L could develop into a tropical depression by Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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There comparing this to that monster, because of the short time length this thing took to get to cat 1.
Very unexpecting.
i noticed that Kman about 1.7 miles NE of previous fix its just sitting there wobbling around right now
I'ma Dolphin fan.. I laughed HARD at that you cold hearted person.
Vortex Message Fix as of 3:27 pm EDT
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1708'N 8302'W (17.1333N 83.0333W) (View map)
Vortex Message Fix as of 1:40 pm EDT
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1707'N 8303'W (17.1167N 83.05W)
Oh.
Ok.
Thank you for the clarification. Yes, it is quite surprising that Rina has intensified so quickly all of a sudden.
I'm sorry but I had to comment, that is funny!
;)
ROFL, i'll admit that was a good one. I was at the game. Once the Dolphins get Luck, the team and results will be different.
No surprise if Rina has stalled. Here is the new steering layer for the current pressure. You can see the weakness very clearly oriented to the NNE with the shortwave digging down in between the two ridges.
And in the same general area and with close projected paths.
I wonder how far west she will go with steering like that she may just meander around the western carib a while slowly moving somewhat northerly but im no pro at reading those maps what do you think Kman?
Does this interpret into a more northern or westwern direction?
Wilma at it's 8th advisory was a TD still.
On the other hand Rina at it's 8th advisory was a CAT 1 hurricane.
Wilma didn't explode until 2 days after it formed.
And is moving right into it....
interesting...
Not liking the "record" breaking storm already.
Hi, very few Cubans here but several Caymanian families have Cuban connections. As for the weather, right now fairly calm but overcast.
She's gone from a storm many thought wasn't worthy of being a T.D yesterday to a hurricane in one day.
• 12z HWRF & GFDL.
Both models have the cyclone reaching a peak intensity in the 2-3 day time frame (sub-945mb pressure).
A stall typically precedes a track change but not always. The high to the West might serve as a blocker to progress in that direction unless it can build over the top of the hurricane fairly soon.
It looks as if the influence of the steering from the East is about equal to that from the West with the shortwave trying to exert some pullon Rina.
Some motion to the N NNE or NNW would not be out of the realms of possibility now. Let's see what the HH finds on the next pass near the centre but probably very little if any movement since the last pass.
Will be back later
Was looking at the forecast soundings. Too warm in the boundary layer (nearly isothermal below 900) for NYC and the Bouroughs, but maybe northwest of the Metro and of course in the Poconos on to the northeast.
Yea, I was there too. If that was not divine intervention I will never know what is.
The Epiphany Bowl
I don't know where this "weather guy" is, or how he's qualified to make such statements. If he's refering to Florida, there is no "monster hurricane" forming. I would be a lot more worried if I lived in Belize or the Yucatan, but we're talking about a storm, if it survives, that is at least seven days out from getting anywhere near Florida. The accuracy of seven day hurricane forecasts is about the same as a flipping a coin. No need to get a milk and bread panic started yet. :)
Ayup. It's been raining up town since after 1:30.... I actually got online to see where this unexpected rain is coming from, only to discover that Rina had been upgraded to hurricane status...
Not convinced yet that S FL and NW Bahamas is completely out of Rina's reach, but I guess we shall see....
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