Dangerous Jova approaching Mexico; welcome rains hit Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT en Octubre 10, 2011

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In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Jova continues to intensify. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has developed a prominent eye with very cold cloud tops. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to arrive at Jova near 11 am PDT today. The computer models are in good agreement that Jova will turn northeast and then north on Tuesday, with storm expected to hit near Manzanillo on Mexico's southwest coast Tuesday afternoon. The intensity forecast also appears relatively straightforward. Jova is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and Jova is now approaching a region where these warm waters extend to great depth, which should allow the storm to maintain major hurricane strength until landfall. The GFDL model predicts Jova will be a Category 3 at landfall on Tuesday afternoon, while the HWRF model predicts Category 4 strength. The hurricane is likely to undergo the usual fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles major hurricanes typically experience at this stage of their lifetimes, so Mexico will have to hope it catches Jova on one of the downswings of this cycle. If Jova maintains its current central pressure of 960 mb until landfall, it will rank as one of the ten most intense Pacific hurricanes to hit Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. According to a comprehensive list of Eastern Pacific hurricane landfalls at Wikipedia, only seven hurricanes with a central pressure of 960 mb or lower have hit Mexico's Pacific coast since 1949. Jova is a modest-sized hurricane, with hurricane-force winds that extend out only 15 miles from the center. A relatively small stretch of moderately to lightly-populated coast will see Jova's high eyewall winds and very dangerous storm surge. A much larger swath of Mexico will see very heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches, and these rains are capable of causing high loss of life due to heavy flooding and mudslides.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Tropical Storm Irwin, farther to the west, may also be a concern. The computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a tropical storm on the Mexican coast late in the week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. However, Irwin is a weak storm that is expected to weaken further as it approaches the coast, due to high wind shear, and Irwin may end up not being a significant threat to Mexico.

93L bringing heavy rains, high winds, and a tornado threat to the Southeast U.S.
A large extratropical low pressure system with heavy rain and gale-force winds (Invest 93L), is centered over Northern Florida. Water vapor satellite loops show that the center of this low is filled with dry air, and 93L is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph. The west side of this low also has a large amount of dry air, which is limiting precipitation amounts along the Gulf of Mexico coast, but the east side has plenty of tropical moisture. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts since Friday are already in excess of ten inches just inland along the Central Florida coast. Melbourne, Florida had its second wettest October day in its history on Saturday, with 5.68" of rain. Much of coast of Northern Florida, Southern South Carolina, and Georgia, including Brunswick, are under a flood watch, high surf advisories, tornado watch, and a high wind watch for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds offshore the Southeast Coast are not quite as strong as last night, when tropical storm force winds occurred along the Central Florida coast. Buoy 41009 offshore from Cape Canaveral recorded sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 67 mph, at 10 pm EDT Sunday. St. Augustine airport had sustained winds of 38 mph with gusts as high as 51 mph Sunday night. Due to the large amount of dry air near the storm's center and west side, plus the fact the track of the storm will spend little time over water, 93L will not have time to organize into a subtropical storm that gets a name. NHC is currently giving 93L a 10% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Wednesday morning. This large diffuse system will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, both the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict a strong tropical disturbance could form in the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua in about seven days.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Tampa Bay, Florida radar as of Monday morning.

Heavy rains for drought-stricken Texas
A slow-moving low pressure system brought the heaviest rains of the year to large portions of rain-starved Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas over the weekend. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts reached eight inches over portions of Texas between Dallas and Abilene. Houston got 20% of their rain for the entire year--3.02"--on Sunday, breaking a string of 256 consecutive days the city had gone without a one-inch rainstorm. The longest previous such streak was 192 days, set in 1917 - 1918. The last one inch rainstorm in the city was January 24, 2011. The last time Houston had a two inch rainstorm was 383 days ago. Yesterday's rains brought the year-to-date precipitation to 15.25", which is 22" below normal.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Dallas, Texas radar as of Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Vero Beach, FL (rjlebleu)
Flooding in neighborhoods from 10+ inches of rain in the last 3 days. Photo by R.J.LeBleu
Vero Beach, FL
Streets turn into temporary creeks. (guygee)
Luckily I was on the shallow side of this divided roadway as I slowly inched along to avoid stalling. On the Space Coast barrier island the waters generally flow west back into the Banana River Lagoon.
Streets turn into temporary creeks.
a reprieve from drought. Bosque River (vostro)
Erath County, City Park at Stephenville.
a reprieve from drought. Bosque River

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530. Ameister12
5:39 PM GMT en Noviembre 24, 2011
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Member Since: Agosto 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
529. CaicosRetiredSailor
3:56 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
From previous blog

Quoting BahaHurican:
Sorry, couldn't resist.... lol

Seriously, I only remember it seemed like yeah forever a long time, expecially taking into consideration how long QuikScat was supposed to have been done before it actually finished. It would be nice to get some new imaging technology up there to give us more detailed and sophisticated data. On top of that, if it doesn't go up for another 3-5 years, how long do we in the general public wait before we get access to info from the newest satellite?

Anyway...


Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


----------

A joint project for creating a new satellite with the next generation of equipment has been announced by NASA and the NHC. The new satellite is scheduled to be operational in 2015, at which time it will be put in orbit around Earth.[9]

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurr icane/blog/2009/11/quikscat_satellite_dies.html
^ a b c Ken Kayes (November 24, 2009). "QuikSCAT satellite dies". Sun Sentinel. Retrieved November 24, 2009.





Perhaps we should encourage StormKen to do a followup article on the status of the plan to replace Quikscat... in these times of so many budget cuts.

Now that I type this, I realize that we could encourage Dr. Masters to do an article on this, and find out "what's up" with the QuikScat program.
Member Since: Julio 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
527. skosty
2:01 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
How about 93L was a extra-sub-tropical mesoscale vortex?
Member Since: Diciembre 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
526. skosty
1:57 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Yeah 93L is unique, so much so that if it weren't it would merit a new kind of storm classification.
Member Since: Diciembre 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
525. skosty
1:55 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
By the way anyone know Irene's effects on the UK as it passed. Didn't hear much but I thought it was supposed to have a big impact in some parts over there.
Member Since: Diciembre 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
524. skosty
1:51 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Even though we haven't had "the big one" develop this year I have to say that Irene was the biggest, strongest, most devestating Cat 1 I've ever seen. Even when it became extra-tropical the CP was still that of a major hurricane. WOW!
Member Since: Diciembre 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
523. TomTaylor
1:45 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
New blog, folks
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
522. CybrTeddy
1:40 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
493.

Entirely possible that 93L wasn't anything we've ever seen in the Atlantic. It doesn't meet the requirements for a tropical or subtropical storm, but it didn't meet the requirements for a nontropical low, a landcane, or anything of the such. Wasn't a tropical wave, wasn't a nor'easter either or extratropical for that matter. Was a warm core feature, that's for sure, with a closed circulation, that's pretty much for sure to. But looking closer into it, you only had the warmcore features in a small core surrounded by an entirely non-tropical system. It was almost two systems in one, I have never seen anything like 93L in the Atlantic before.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
521. Cotillion
1:39 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Link

Interesting little piece (with photos!) of glacier change on the Himalayas.
Member Since: Agosto 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
520. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:36 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sorry, couldn't resist.... lol

Seriously, I only remember it seemed like yeah forever a long time, expecially taking into consideration how long QuikScat was supposed to have been done before it actually finished. It would be nice to get some new imaging technology up there to give us more detailed and sophisticated data. On top of that, if it doesn't go up for another 3-5 years, how long do we in the general public wait before we get access to info from the newest satellite?

Anyway...


----------

A joint project for creating a new satellite with the next generation of equipment has been announced by NASA and the NHC. The new satellite is scheduled to be operational in 2015, at which time it will be put in orbit around Earth.[9]

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurr icane/blog/2009/11/quikscat_satellite_dies.html
^ a b c Ken Kayes (November 24, 2009). "QuikSCAT satellite dies". Sun Sentinel. Retrieved November 24, 2009.



Member Since: Julio 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
519. CaribBoy
1:35 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
OP GFS AND GFES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FINALLY BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT TUE OCT 18 AS A SERIES OF POLAR
PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND BASE OF ERN NOAM MEAN TROF ERODE THE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE
LAST TEN DAYS OF OCT. INTERESTINGLY...A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST TC FORMATION NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AROUND THE 19TH AND
LATEST CPC GLOBAL TROPICS BENEFITS/HAZARDS ASSESSMENT PAGE AND MJO
FORECASTS HAVE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A
MODERATE CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR WEEK-2. SO...
AFTER A RATHER QUIET FIRST
HALF OF OCT THINGS LOOK TO TURN MORE EXCITING FOR THE END OF THE
MONTH.



YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Octubre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
518. skosty
1:33 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
thx for the link really makes me appreciate the kind of tools and networking we have in this country
Member Since: Diciembre 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
517. coffeecrusader
1:31 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
MJO on the move, should be in Caribbean by the end of the week. This is the strongest upward pulse of the season and the same pulse that just brought Jova to the eastern Pacific. The entire Carib. will be oozing with moisture and its very likely something will develop over the next 1-2 weeks. With the high THCP all we need is low wind shear and a strong Hurricane would not be out of the question.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
516. BahaHurican
1:20 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


I wanna say 2015, but don't quote me on that.
Sorry, couldn't resist.... lol

Seriously, I only remember it seemed like yeah forever a long time, expecially taking into consideration how long QuikScat was supposed to have been done before it actually finished. It would be nice to get some new imaging technology up there to give us more detailed and sophisticated data. On top of that, if it doesn't go up for another 3-5 years, how long do we in the general public wait before we get access to info from the newest satellite?

Anyway...
Member Since: Octubre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
515. speedwell
1:09 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
About generators... I live in a Houston apartment that faces into a courtyard, and I have no secure place to put a fuel-burning generator. If I put one in the courtyard, it would wake up the neighbors (the design tends to collect and magnify sound). If I put it in the apartment, I'd be dead.

The best I could do was a Freeplay Weza (the foot-powered rechargable "generator"), and it works great. However, they've been discontinued long since by the company that made them.

What have you guys seen as far as options go for people who live in small apartments and can't use generators?
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
514. Sfloridacat5
12:57 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
NAM develops the Cuba low, but keeps it just off shore the East Coast.
That seems likely with the dry air moving into Florida this week.

GFS shows (2 weeks out) a Caribbean system. We'll have to see if that continues with future runs.
Member Since: Septiembre 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9304
513. Sfloridacat5
12:52 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
Tom~ Anything more than 50 miles from the COC was moving East to west..not with the circulation. The circulation was very small at landfall. The center that was seen by PWS & such was on land nearly from the beginning. Atleast an hour before what was on radar hit KSC.

Islander~ Mesoscale vortex have closed circulations too.. I usually refer to them as landcanes.

Atleast they have months to evaluate it. Had it been called a STS at landfall..even though it was questionable stacked & feeding on temp diff..the mob would be chanting..NHC failed..they only had 15 mins STS warning.


TWC expert was calling the center of circulation (93L) observed off Cocoa Beach area that moved into Florida's East Coast a "Microscale Convective Complex."
From reading about this that doesn't seem right. But that's what he called it. He was basically saying the weather(strong localized wind gusts) was not representative of the system as a whole.
Member Since: Septiembre 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9304
512. GeoffreyWPB
12:38 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW LOW IS CENTERED E OF JAMAICA AT 18N75W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...HAITI...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
72W-76W.

Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
511. whepton3
12:20 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Good Morning...


Interesting 850 MB vorticity in relation to the convection near the eastern tip of Cuba:

Member Since: Julio 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
510. TropicTraveler
12:13 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
I'm definitely laughing at myself. Googled Manzanillo weather radar and Wunderground popped up with complete data - but no radar available. Best site for out of country up to the minute wx report.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
509. TropicTraveler
12:08 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Here's a webcam link for Puerto Vallarta.

Webcam courtesy of: http://www.puertovallarta.net/interactive/webcam/i ndex.php#
Member Since: Julio 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
508. robert88
12:05 PM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Good to see the dry air from the Mts. disrupted the core of Jova. This is still going to be a very bad situation with the flooding and surge. Jova could of been barreling down on MX as a Cat 4 with much higher winds. They lucked out there.
Member Since: Mayo 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 908
507. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:59 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF JOVA MOVING ONSHORE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 105.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32829
506. TropicTraveler
11:59 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting TropicTraveler:


Should be at Puerto Vallarta (big airport there), Acapulco, Manzanillo, maybe Ixtapec though it may be too far south.

At Manzanillo when you land in a light plane the surf is right beside you and looks like it's higher than the runway. Sure to be flooded if any surge at all comes on shore.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
505. TropicTraveler
11:57 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting skosty:
Anyone know if there are any radar or radar links in the region where Jova's headed?


Should be at Puerto Vallarta (big airport there), Acapulco, Manzanillo, maybe Ixtapec though it may be too far south.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
504. TropicTraveler
11:55 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Good morning everyone. Jova looks scary to me - from the standpoint of being in the bullseye of her at those wind speeds, even if she weakens, it's a dangerous storm. I've flown over those mountains in a small plane and a lot of the rain will get lifting from the upslopes from the many 10,000+ peaks, row after row of them. People who live among those hills have poorly constructed houses. It won't be a good day for them. Thanks to all of you on the blog for the good weather information and excellent arguments. Conflict is good as it brings out all sides of the information and lets the reader learn more.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
503. skosty
11:53 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Anyone know if there are any radar or radar links in the region where Jova's headed?
Member Since: Diciembre 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
502. skosty
11:51 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
also looks like the overall size of Jova's convection has almost doubled overnight
Member Since: Diciembre 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
501. skosty
11:46 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Looking at Jova this morning makes me think Cat 4 landfall could be a possibility. Its 5mph forward speed along with the deep warm waters give it plenty of time to reorganize and strengten. I'm thinking more along the lines of 125-130 mph at landfall. Regardless it's really all about the extreme rainfall amounts that will be the big story with this one.
Member Since: Diciembre 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
500. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:44 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Little old, but still shows Jova's absence of a closed eyewall with a much large outer eyewall taking shape.

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32829
499. wn1995
11:41 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
gonna be hard for her to get stronger but her EWRC is almost over and she looks better than last night. im calling 110 or 115 at landfall


It will be hard but not impossible by any means. She is getting close to landfall though so she doesn't have much time.
Member Since: Julio 17, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
498. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:32 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Good morning all.

Jova is an impressive hurricane, but not as strong as it could've become. Thankfully, some dry air entrainment helped the onset of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, which has since destroyed its eyewall. With it being so close to the coast, it won't have enough time to make a new one and then rebound from where it is, so I am calling for a landfall intensity of 105/110 mph.

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32829
497. wunderweatherman123
11:29 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting wn1995:


It is possible that she weakens a little bit more before landfall, but at the same time the possibility also exists for her to maintain intensity or even intensify just slightly. 110-120 is a good guess range.
gonna be hard for her to get stronger but her EWRC is almost over and she looks better than last night. im calling 110 or 115 at landfall
Member Since: Agosto 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
496. wn1995
11:23 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting ClaySFL:


+1000000. Worry not about whether it should've been named, worry about the damage.


I disagree. Topics like this most certainly deserve a respectful debate. This is a storm to learn from and discuss for sure, and the fact that they didn't name it warrants friendly discussion.

Worry about the damage too, as it is important, but no reason NOT to discuss the naming issue.
Member Since: Julio 17, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
495. Vero1
11:22 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
As long as 93L was not named Hurricane Deductibles do not apply for wind damage for falling trees..
Member Since: Julio 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
494. wn1995
11:20 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
she looks to be maintaining in fact possible almost finished with her EWRC. i checked her infrared loop and i saw her inner eye wall get eroded and now a new outer eye wall is trying to form. i think she will maintain 115mph at landfall. what about you?


It is possible that she weakens a little bit more before landfall, but at the same time the possibility also exists for her to maintain intensity or even intensify just slightly. 110-120 is a good guess range.
Member Since: Julio 17, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
493. Skyepony (Mod)
11:16 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Tom~ Anything more than 50 miles from the COC was moving East to west..not with the circulation. The circulation was very small at landfall. The center that was seen by PWS & such was on land nearly from the beginning. Atleast an hour before what was on radar hit KSC.

Islander~ Mesoscale vortex have closed circulations too.. I usually refer to them as landcanes.

Atleast they have months to evaluate it. Had it been called a STS at landfall..even though it was questionable stacked & feeding on temp diff..the mob would be chanting..NHC failed..they only had 15 mins STS warning.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
492. wunderweatherman123
11:13 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting wn1995:


She is certainly an impressive hurricane, but I would say 115 is a good estimate of current strength, it probably isn't much stronger than that at this point.
she looks to be maintaining in fact possible almost finished with her EWRC. i checked her infrared loop and i saw her inner eye wall get eroded and now a new outer eye wall is trying to form. i think she will maintain 115mph at landfall. what about you?
Member Since: Agosto 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
491. wn1995
11:10 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
jova down to 115mph although she looks better than before..


She is certainly an impressive hurricane, but I would say 115 is a good estimate of current strength, it probably isn't much stronger than that at this point.
Member Since: Julio 17, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
490. Roark
11:08 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
There's other ways around a noisy, dirty, expensive generator. Capped a shallow well with a hand pump. The rest is like camping. Starting to piece together some solar luxuries but I think this we all need a generator to get by has been to get people to buy generators. Certain instances I can see where the end justifies the mean but I certainly haven't lost enough stuff in the fridge & such to even begin paying back on a that sort of investment.


Yup. There isnt any subsitute for a sustainable infrastructure, and having deep fallback is always a good idea. I put in a shallow well with "decorative" hand pump after Rita. And then for personal reasons got serious about generators, which is when I learned you definitely get what you pay for. In the gas genny world, there is Honda and then there is everything else. For serious longterm support, there is diesel.

Both houses and my office are backed up with automatic diesel sets. When Rita and Ike came calling, power was out for 19 days (Ike) and 11 days (Rita), but the margaritas stayed cool. :) In Ike by Day 2 we had morphed into a soup kitchen of sorts. By Day 3 we had a running Yatzee game going 24/7 and cots appeared at the office. At home there was nary an unoccupied chair or bed, and most of them were new friends we hadnt met just two weeks before. Sorta neat cooking for 20 every meal and getting advice from the Oldsters on how to "make do" when we ran-out of something in the pantry.

Many folks tend to look at hurricanes as a disaster, and for some they certainly are. We mourn their individual losses as a community and help where we can. But in a wierd way I sorta look forward to these things because I always learn something new and useful when generations collide for a common cause.
Member Since: Agosto 31, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
489. Cotillion
11:07 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Activity still ongoing and maybe increasing in the El Hierro volcanic region. If the submarine eruption continues long enough with sufficient force, maybe we'll see a new Canary Island. Interesting stuff.

In other good news:

"The Fukushima disaster provides no reason to restrict UK nuclear reactors or stop building new ones, the official nuclear regulator has concluded"

Good. No need for an overreaction (like the Germans and their mass lapse of reason), we do not live on a tectonically active region. Not many really like nuclear power (I include myself), but it is the most efficient option outside of coal and gas which is no good.

An energy portfolio approach would be best, harnassing wind, wave, nuclear, solar and geothermal energies when possible.
Member Since: Agosto 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
488. GeoffreyWPB
11:07 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
487. wunderweatherman123
10:53 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
jova down to 115mph although she looks better than before..
Member Since: Agosto 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
486. islander101010
10:28 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
the outer rings of the circulation are hitting the high mountains of mex. this might be one of the causes of it weakening
Member Since: Septiembre 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5002
485. MahFL
10:24 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Quoting nymore:
I understand the first point but the others can be solved. If an apartment complex wants one and does not have space on the ground mount it on the roof for a flood put it on a raised platform above the waters.


Apartment complex's do not buy generators, these days your lucky if they fix a broken toilet in 3 days....you living in la la land ?
Member Since: Junio 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3839
484. robert88
9:27 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Jova weakening..some slightly better news for MX

Member Since: Mayo 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 908
483. aspectre
7:57 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
461 wxgeek723 "Jeez people a lot of arguing for a simple storm. Why does the classification matter?"

Well to start with, it's downright embarrassin' when ya can't come with nothin' better than
"It was a dark and stormy night; the rain fell in torrents..."
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
482. islander101010
7:45 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
when the sucker passed just to the east we had a wind shift from the west it had a surface circulation
Member Since: Septiembre 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5002
481. robert88
6:52 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
Starting to wonder if the Pacific is going to hog all the energy from the Caribbean during the MJO pulse and the Atlantic basin shuts down for the season. We shall know soon enough. Time is running out...Goodnight
Member Since: Mayo 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 908
480. robert88
6:40 AM GMT en Octubre 11, 2011
The NHC and Melbourne did their job right coordinating together and putting out advisories way ahead of the storm. Anyone that has a degree in meteorology and a brain in their head knew it was not subtropical. 93L was purely a extratropical mid level latitude cyclone that enhanced the T-storms and brought those winds down to the surface...end of story. If you removed all the upper level energy could the system still have powered itself?...nope
Member Since: Mayo 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 908

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
29 ° F
Nublado

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron