Major rains for Southeast U.S., TX, KS, and OK; Jova and Irwin a threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT en Octubre 07, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is expected to develop over Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. I doubt that this storm will acquire enough organization to evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name, based on the latest model output, and the fact that the storm's center may well be over the state of Florida. This will be a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Portions of the coastal waters along the Florida Panhandle, as well as from Northeast Florida to South Carolina, are likely to experience sustained winds of 30 - 40 mph Monday and Tuesday. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will not be able to intensify quickly.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 12, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 11 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Heavy rain event coming for drought-stricken regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
A strong low pressure system is expected to track across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this weekend, bringing the heaviest rains of the year to drought-stricken portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, including Abilene. Rainfall in this region has been 13 - 20 inches below normal for the year; Lubbock, Texas has had just 3 inches of rain this year, compared to a normal of 16 inches. Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend. As of yesterday, Houston had gone 253 consecutive days without a one-inch rainstorm, a new record. The longest previous such streak was 192 days, set in 1917 - 1918. The last one inch rainstorm in the city was January 24, 2011. Remarkably, the local National Weather Service office has not issued any flood products in over a year.


Figure 2. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Philippe being ripped up by wind shear
Hurricane Philippe, the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, doesn't have much time left as a hurricane, due to high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots that is starting to tear the storm apart. Satellite loops show Philippe has become lopsided and is now missing its eye. Philippe will continue to degrade in appearance over the next few days, and will die in the middle Atlantic without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Philippe over the mid-Atlantic taken at 10:45 am EDT October 6, 2011. At the time, Philippe was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jova and Irwin: double trouble for Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, two new tropical storms spun up yesterday. The storm of greatest immediate concern is the one closest to the coast, Tropical Storm Jova. Jova is currently headed west-northwest, parallel to the coast, but will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have a fairly wide spread for the track of Jova, with the region of coast centered on Puerto Vallarta between Manzanillo and Tuxpan at greatest risk of a strike. Jova is under moderate shear of 10 - 20 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Monday on the Mexican coast. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing Jova to Category 1 strength. This is probably too conservative, and I expect Jova will be at least a Cat 2 at landfall. One possible impediment to development may be Jova's close proximity to Hurricane Irwin to its west. Upper-level outflow from Irwin could weaken Jova, and the two storms may compete for the same moisture. The two storms are close enough to each other--about 650 miles apart--that they will affect each others' track, as well. Whenever two storms of at least tropical storm strength approach within 900 miles of each other, a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect comes into play. This effect causes the two storms to rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Since the degree of rotation will depend on the relative strengths of the the two storms, and our ability to make good intensity forecasts is limited, the track forecasts for both Jova and Irwin will have a higher degree of uncertainty than usual. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Sunday night.

Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Hurricane Irwin, which is gathering strength farther to the west. Irwin is also moving to the west-northwest, and will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect Jova. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a hurricane on the Mexican coast late next week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:


ECMWF has been hinting that a broad area of low pressure would form in the Caribbean for several runs now (not to denigrate your post). The GFS has also been suggesting development in the long range as well, and with the upcoming pulse of the MJO it certainly would not be out of the question as the activity shifts from the Eastern Pacific to the Western Atlantic.
just came back from orlando, the rain was coming down so hard, I-4 was doing maybe 20-25 mph..so you know how bad it was, you could not see the car in front of you nor on the side of you, guess this is what we can expect more of this weekend
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bigger still (:



Really blowing up now.

Looks like here in southern Palm Beach/northern Broward Counties we're the only ones in SE. FL with clear skies
Member Since: Julio 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
Bigger still (:

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
ECMWF showing Carribean system way out in time (240), take it for what you think of that kind of timeframe.




ECMWF has been hinting that a broad area of low pressure would form in the Caribbean for several runs now (not to denigrate your post). The GFS has also been suggesting development in the long range as well, and with the upcoming pulse of the MJO it certainly would not be out of the question as the activity shifts from the Eastern Pacific to the Western Atlantic.
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FWIW... the new S. FL NWS discussion in part:

THERE IS A HIGH POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE LINES DEVELOPING WITH SHOWERS/STORMS TRAINING (ONE AFTER THE OTHER) AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST PALM BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...AND MIAMI METROPOLITAN AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST.

And the much anticipated low developing:

MODELS STILL ADVERTISE THE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF A HYBRID LOW/CYCLONE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...HOWEVER THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AS TO WHERE THIS COULD HAPPEN. GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST IT WILL BE SE OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVE NORTHWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST, WHILE ECMWF IS VERY PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THE LOW OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES IT NORTH. THIS SHOWS DIFFERENT IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL AREA DEPENDING WHAT MODEL TURN OUT TO BE RIGHT. GFS PUTS MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...HEAVIER PRECIP AND HIGHER WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL TREND TOWARD THAT MODEL SOLUTION...HENCE THE HIGH POPS...HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER WINDS INDICATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.



Member Since: Julio 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
Quoting jcpoulard:


Finally some one have some interest on this mass of cloud who have multiply its size by 4 since this morning....
Any possibility for Tropical system to pop up front that ?
Yes , I would like to hear and opinion on that mass of cloued myself, is very close to Dominican Republia and western Puerto Rico.
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Bigger view:

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting Skyepony:


I'm 20mins south of you in Melbourne & just had our 4th driest Sept on record. We came into the season with drought over all..some got rain since & some didn't.

This is my favorite FL drought map..



I'm in southern Osceola county....39.08 inches for the year which is below average. Only had 31.53 for 2010. I think most areas in Florida are below average with a few localized areas perhaps being above average. Overall, we can use the rain going into the dry season.
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Quoting JasonCoooolMan2011:
WOW!!!! PHISH STORM PHILIPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Hey, Congrats! You nailed it this time!!!
Member Since: Marzo 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
ECMWF showing Carribean system way out in time (240), take it for what you think of that kind of timeframe.


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The upper trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico seems to be the catalyst for shower and thunderstorm activity in the Bahamas. Increased activity from yesterday...

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting Levi32:
This isn't a hurricane.


You're right, its not:

AL, 17, 2011100718, , BEST, 0, 299N, 551W, 60, 989, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 40, 30, 40, 1012, 175, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
This isn't a hurricane.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes.

It develops that Subtropical storm right before landfall in Florida/Georgia. It then develops a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean that moves in the Bay of Campeche, and hits Mexico. Lastly, it is developing another storm in the western Caribbean at the end of the run.
i mean on the western side of the country area #1 epac 30% that area got hit bad about 5 yrs ago
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Since it's a little slow at the moment, thought you might like this newly-posted video of nature doing its thing at the Cornish North Cliffs:



Newspaper story


Very cool. Thanks for posting!
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Quoting Levi32:


0s represent missing data.

In order:

50 - Wind radii in this file are given for an intensity of 50kts.

NEQ - Radii defined for northeast quadrant.

20,20 - radius of specified wind intensity in 1st,2nd quadrants (50kt).

1009 - last closed isobar around the system

165 - radius of last closed isobar in nm.

20 - radius of max winds

E - subregion code (eastern Pacific)

JOVA - storm name.

M - storm has medium depth in the atmosphere.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link

Thanks.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
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Quoting islander101010:
gfs seems to have landfallers in mex as well as one in nicaraqua if im reading it right


Yes.

It develops that Subtropical storm right before landfall in Florida/Georgia. It then develops a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean that moves in the Bay of Campeche, and hits Mexico. Lastly, it is developing another storm in the western Caribbean at the end of the run.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
WOW! south Florida has barely any drought... in fact this storm is going to hit all the areas of Florida, except the areas that actual need it get your facts straight people!



In a way your correct, in a way your not. My county, Palm Beach, is 14.24" below normal for the year and 5.27" below normal for this rainy season. Heading into the dry season with those kinds of deficits would plunge the ground water numbers in a hurry. Once the rains stop the ground moisture goes away.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody want to explain to me what the bolded part means?

EP, 10, 2011100712, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1101W, 50, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1009, 165, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, M,


Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody want to explain to me what the bolded part means?

EP, 10, 2011100712, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1101W, 50, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1009, 165, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, M,


0s represent missing data.

In order:

50 - Wind radii in this file are given for an intensity of 50kts.

NEQ - Radii defined for northeast quadrant.

20,20 - radius of specified wind intensity in 1st,2nd quadrants (50kt).

1009 - last closed isobar around the system

165 - radius of last closed isobar in nm.

20 - radius of max winds

E - subregion code (eastern Pacific)

JOVA - storm name.

M - storm has medium depth in the atmosphere.

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Quoting 167. Neapolitan:
Since it's a little slow at the moment, thought you might like this somewhat weather-related, newly-posted video of nature doing its thing at the Cornish North Cliffs:

Wow! Thanks for sharing.
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gfs seems to have landfallers in mex as well as one in nicaraqua if im reading it right
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Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
Has anyone seen StormW lately? I always appreciated his posts.


www.stormw.com
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

so it was basically between me and Neapolitans answers...

Well, Neap said $1.79 trillion, so I think he just miscounted the zeroes. :P
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
14.85N/69.23W


Finally some one have some interest on this mass of cloud who have multiply its size by 4 since this morning....
Any possibility for Tropical system to pop up front that ?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I did.

$1.8 billion.

so it was basically between me and Neapolitans answers...
Member Since: Julio 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 862
Anybody want to explain to me what the bolded part means?

EP, 10, 2011100712, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1101W, 50, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1009, 165, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, M,
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883

t.s jova
Member Since: Julio 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 862
Quoting tiggeriffic:


I hope you got the answer to your question from earlier... :)

Yeah, I did.

$1.8 billion.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
Has anyone seen StormW lately? I always appreciated his posts.


just google stormw and you will find him
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Since it's a little slow at the moment, thought you might like this somewhat weather-related, newly-posted video of nature doing its thing at the Cornish North Cliffs:



Newspaper story
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well Philippe...You struggled and struggled to reach hurricane status, and you did it. I hope you were happy as a hurricane, but now its time to say good bye.



I hope you got the answer to your question from earlier... :)
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Latest GFSX MOS PoP came out for my area... shows 87 and 83 PoP for Sat and Sun, respectively... then keeps PoPs at or above 40 all week. Reminiscent of the rainy season to me. Also keeps dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the week as well. QPF (MOS dramatically undercuts in these type situations) comes in at 2-4" for Sat-Sun timeframe.
Member Since: Marzo 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Rain fall varys greatly within the same area. In my area of S.W. Florida (Ft. Myers) as of Oct. 1 totals range from 22.52" out at the beach (Lovers Key) to 46.86" at the Waste Energy Plant.

I live just east of I75 (good sea breeze effect)and we've had over 46" at my location.

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Well Philippe...You struggled and struggled to reach hurricane status, and you did it. I hope you were happy as a hurricane, but now its time to say good bye.

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
Has anyone seen StormW lately? I always appreciated his posts.


No longer here...sorry...but i always did as well...
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Irwin is up to 90 mph:

EP, 11, 2011100718, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1207W, 80, 980, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 15, 1010, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IRWIN, D,
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
159. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting islander101010:
been a wet late summer here in this part of e cen fl. there for a while we were getting it everyday asked neighbors been over 20 yrs since we've seen it rain like it has. then we look over the nws in melb. and tv always talking about the drought not here


I'm 20mins south of you in Melbourne & just had our 4th driest Sept on record. We came into the season with drought over all..some got rain since & some didn't.

This is my favorite FL drought map..
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37817
Philippe has been deprived of his hurricane status-

AL, 17, 2011100718, , BEST, 0, 299N, 551W, 60, 989, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 40, 30, 40, 1012, 175, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
000
CDUS42 KMLB 070635
CLIMLB


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE
235 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011


...................................

...THE MELBOURNE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 6 2011...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1939 TO 2011


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
................................................. .................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 85 246 PM 92 2001 86 -1 81
MINIMUM 76 114 AM 60 1980 71 5 62
1963
1938
AVERAGE 81 78 3 72

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY T 2.78 2004 0.19 -0.19 0.00
MONTH TO DATE T 1.24 -1.24 T
SINCE SEP 1 2.43 8.88 -6.45 5.94
SINCE JAN 1 31.06 42.73 -11.67 30.33

SNOWFALL (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.0
MONTH TO DATE 0.0
SINCE JUL 1 0.0

DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0
SINCE SEP 1 0 0 0 0
SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0

COOLING
YESTERDAY 16 13 3 7
MONTH TO DATE 69 82 -13 59
SINCE SEP 1 566 548 18 586
SINCE JAN 1 3162 2774 388 3008
................................................. .................


WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 24 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION E (70)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 30 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (60)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 15.4


SKY COVER
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.5


WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.
LIGHT RAIN


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 74 1100 PM
LOWEST 51 1100 AM
AVERAGE 63

................................................. .........


THE MELBOURNE CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 86 93 2009
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 70 55 1964


SUNRISE AND SUNSET
OCTOBER 7 2011.......SUNRISE 718 AM EDT SUNSET 702 PM EDT
OCTOBER 8 2011.......SUNRISE 719 AM EDT SUNSET 701 PM EDT


- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




Member Since: Julio 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 862
Quoting carlakid50:
Long time lurker here. Any rain will be gladly accepted in Houston. I don't remember a year without one flood warning here since before I was born which as pre-Carla.
And Carla was a huge hurricane..
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Every storm seems to suck up any possible moisture we might have been predicted to get this year.
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Quoting whepton3:


This is weird. I came to a weather blog, and now I find myself thinking about buying eggs.

Maybe before our S. FL deluge hits I will do that, but I need to decide quickly before the value of the dollar (and therefore the cost of the eggs) changes.


lol...it was a question that was asked back on page one...since the blog is running sooooooo slow...i didn't see any harm in answering it... :)
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Long time lurker here. Any rain will be gladly accepted in Houston. I don't remember a year without one flood warning here since before I was born which as pre-Carla.
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Quoting islander101010:
been a wet late summer here in e cen fl. there for a while we were getting it everyday asked neighbors been over 20 yrs since we've seen it rain like it has. then we look over the nws in melb. and tv always talking about the drought not here


However, Melbourne is in a deficit of 11.67". Meanwhile, 20 miles north of there, where I live... my lake is full, beyond where it normally would be, after starting the summer way below where it needed to be. I have had over 35" of rain this wet season... and slightly over 7" prior to the start of it. I think any drought conditions are spotty, and the drought monitor is an average over a given area.
Member Since: Marzo 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
WOW! south Florida has barely any drought... in fact this storm is going to hit all the areas of Florida, except the areas that actual need it get your facts straight people!
Member Since: Julio 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 862
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm going to be honest, that Palmer drought map is not very accurate, we have a 13 inch surplus for the year here in Central Florida, and most of central and south Florida except the far eastern areas are at or above average.


Palmer Drought Index - October 2010 to September 2011

"The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (known operationally as the Palmer Drought Index (PDI)) attempts to measure the duration and intensity of the long-term drought-inducing circulation patterns. Long-term drought is cumulative, so the intensity of drought during the current month is dependent on the current weather patterns plus the cumulative patterns of previous months. Since weather patterns can change almost literally overnight from a long-term drought pattern to a long-term wet pattern, the PDSI (PDI) can respond fairly rapidly."

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Quoting Jedkins01:


Exactly my point, the Florida drought monitor you posted here is much more accurate. I'm not sure why Dr. Masters used that map because it makes it seem like the whole state of Florida is dying of drought when its really only the panhandle and portions of Eastern and Southeastern Florida.

I'm not trying to cause controversy, but being a very scientific minded person, I always ask a question and examine carefully, its just how I think.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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