Ophelia weakening; Hilary an impressive Cat 4
Tropical Storm Ophelia is weaker today, thanks to dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has almost no heavy thunderstorms near its low level circulation center, which is entirely exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are in a band several hundred miles to the east and south, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show the center of Ophelia is entirely within a large area of very dry air. We don't have any current buoy, ship, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia; the Hurricane Hunters will be making their first flight into Ophelia this afternoon near 2 pm EDT.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.
Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. I believe that the combination of shear and dry air will probably dissipate Ophelia on Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS models. Ophelia will bring a few heavy rain squalls to the Lesser Antilles on Saturday and Sunday. At longer ranges, even if Ophelia dissipates this weekend, it could encounter a lower-shear environment south of Bermuda early next week and regenerate. Ophelia (or its remnants) may may pass close to Bermuda as early as Wednesday. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to know.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at Category 4 strength, with 145 mph winds. Quite a contrast from Ophelia!
Hurricane Hilary hits Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has intensified into an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds, and has brought 2 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the Mexican coast west of Acapulco. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm's rains should not cause major flooding problems for Mexico. However, a trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. early next week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, and both the GFS and ECMWF models predict Hillary could hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Thursday. If this scenario does occur, Hilary would likely be much weaker, due to the colder waters it would have to traverse to get to Baja. It is possible that moisture from Hilary could work its way northwards into Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas late next week, bringing some drought relief. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds. The GOES-West satellite is in super rapid scan mode today for Hilary, and you can view satellite loops with images taken every minute from the NOAA/CIRA website.
Elsewhere in the tropics
In the far eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday is predicted by the GFS model to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The disturbance is currently moving west, but steering currents favor a west-northwest to northwest track early next week. NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook.
Japan is cleaning up from Typhoon Roke, which made landfall near Japan’s Hamamatsu City in Shizuoka Prefecture at 2:00 pm local time (05:00 UTC) on September 21. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 180 km/h [112.5 mph], making Roke a strong Category 2 storm. AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Roke were $150 - $600 million, mostly from wind damage. The typhoon killed 12 and left 5 people missing in Japan.
Jeff Masters
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(~ 27.29 inHg) 719 meters
(~ 2,359 feet) 1003.4 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg) - From 40° at 58 knots
(From the NE at ~ 66.7 mph) 21.8°C
(~ 71.2°F) 20.5°C
(~ 68.9°F) 59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph) 51 knots*
(~ 58.6 mph*) 7 mm/hr*
(~ 0.28 in/hr*) 50.1 knots* (~ 57.7 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 86.4%*
Caribbean still mostly untouched...Won't last much longer, IMO.
Very rare for a CV system this late in the year to go any other track.
Link
I meant when he said "not weakening much, as forecasters predicted",since the forecast weakens it back to a TD.
Out to Sea.
True, but it's been the pattern during the whole season.
Still has a good potential of becoming at least a hurricane.
SHIPS takes it up to 78 knots within the next 120 hours. Not saying it will, but that implies favorable conditions over the next five days.
Fine by me.
Irene was enough.
Its heading west...like it has been.
Ah I see.
Isn't it supposed to be heading west northwest? :\
She isn't north of her projected course, she is right on it. If anything, since she is still moving west, her course may be shifted to the west some.
???
Link
Has the NHC they not updated their projected paths overlay on their sat loops?
I have her at 16.4 N and 103 W right now?
No, it hasn't been updated. That's from 8AM this morning (the track).
Ahh...my bad. Much apprieciated.
Ophelia is building thunderstorms at the center. I wouldn't be suprised if it intensifies, and tomorrow be at like 60mph. I expected to weaken to a depression after Puerto Rico and regenerate near Bermuda.
Hilary is also going under eyewall replacment.
The update will be a very conservative one from the NHC, as always. If it says it jumped to 50 KT, they will still say 45 at most, I think.
How do you know that?
15.35N 53.4667W
Heading west, with a hint of S, according to the HHs.
I hope this is just a wobble.
They'll probably end up having to issue TS Watches.
HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011
...VERY INTENSE HURRICANE HILARY MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
That's why I love the HHs. XD
They show us what's really happening.
Yep.
Location: 15.5°N 53.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
000
WTNT41 KNHC 232056
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR AND OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50
KT BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE
WINDS OF 50-51 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13...AFTER ONCE AGAIN HAVING TO SMOOTH
THROUGH ALL OF THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES IN THE TRACK. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LIKELY PULLED
THE BARELY-CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NORTHWESTWARD...
WHICH IS BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION. OTHERWISE...THERE HAS
BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD
INITIAL POSITION...BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
OPHELIA IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN QUITE
STRONG...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. BY 72 HOURS
AND BEYOND...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ERODE
AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE OPHELIA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 3-4...AND THEN ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD
TURN BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN OR LEFT SIDE
OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL IS ASSESSING NEAR 20 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE...THE UW-CIMSS MID-LEVEL
SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THE SHEAR IS 15 KT OR LESS. THIS HAS LIKELY
ALLOWED THE RECENT RESURGENCE IN INNER CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...
THIS BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE TO
MORE THAN 25 KT IN 12-18 HOURS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 96
HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE WAXING AND WANING OF THE CENTRAL
DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND OPHELIA MOVES UNDERNEATH OR
NEAR A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 15.5N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.3N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 17.5N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 18.6N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 19.7N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 21.8N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 24.0N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 26.5N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
It will move westward then west/northwestward after 35-40°
This?
Yeah, that is what is left of what was Invest 99L.
Near 0%.
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