Ophelia weakening; Hilary an impressive Cat 4
Tropical Storm Ophelia is weaker today, thanks to dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has almost no heavy thunderstorms near its low level circulation center, which is entirely exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are in a band several hundred miles to the east and south, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show the center of Ophelia is entirely within a large area of very dry air. We don't have any current buoy, ship, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia; the Hurricane Hunters will be making their first flight into Ophelia this afternoon near 2 pm EDT.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.
Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. I believe that the combination of shear and dry air will probably dissipate Ophelia on Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS models. Ophelia will bring a few heavy rain squalls to the Lesser Antilles on Saturday and Sunday. At longer ranges, even if Ophelia dissipates this weekend, it could encounter a lower-shear environment south of Bermuda early next week and regenerate. Ophelia (or its remnants) may may pass close to Bermuda as early as Wednesday. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to know.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at Category 4 strength, with 145 mph winds. Quite a contrast from Ophelia!
Hurricane Hilary hits Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has intensified into an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds, and has brought 2 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the Mexican coast west of Acapulco. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm's rains should not cause major flooding problems for Mexico. However, a trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. early next week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, and both the GFS and ECMWF models predict Hillary could hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Thursday. If this scenario does occur, Hilary would likely be much weaker, due to the colder waters it would have to traverse to get to Baja. It is possible that moisture from Hilary could work its way northwards into Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas late next week, bringing some drought relief. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds. The GOES-West satellite is in super rapid scan mode today for Hilary, and you can view satellite loops with images taken every minute from the NOAA/CIRA website.
Elsewhere in the tropics
In the far eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday is predicted by the GFS model to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The disturbance is currently moving west, but steering currents favor a west-northwest to northwest track early next week. NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook.
Japan is cleaning up from Typhoon Roke, which made landfall near Japan’s Hamamatsu City in Shizuoka Prefecture at 2:00 pm local time (05:00 UTC) on September 21. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 180 km/h [112.5 mph], making Roke a strong Category 2 storm. AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Roke were $150 - $600 million, mostly from wind damage. The typhoon killed 12 and left 5 people missing in Japan.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Space junk hurtles towards Australia
I will be taking a few days off, My favorite uncle passed away this morning, I was able to see him in hospital yesterday for 40mins and he was talking about being home next week. Well, he is home now, He is back with his beloved wife whom passed away 7 years ago. R.I.P Uncle Pat.
I'll be back in a few days, btw, models predicting another Super-Typhoon in the WPAC.
Bummed to see everyone leaving
17L will probably be renumbered this morning.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN
THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM LATER TODAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
Any coincidence with this year storm behaviour... Or with our predictions based on personal criteria...
It is rotating counter clockwise. I don't see the illusion?
Look at it and open and close your eyes rapidly... Try to make it rotate clockwise... Or concentrate on the left side of the frame or on the right side of the frame....
Well, good night all...
I see...the cat is actually heading west!
AL, 90, 2011092406, , BEST, 0, 105N, 245W, 30, 1007, LO,
Will it fare better with shear or will it end up with another literation of Ophelia?
AL, 17, 2011092406, , BEST, 0, 105N, 245W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVENTEEN, M,
Also, Ophelia seems to be developing a weak secondary LLC to the SW of the main LLC, close to the weak convection around 15N, west of 55W.
Since the buoy at 14.6N and 56.2W is reporting south winds when they should be from the N or NW.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 240858
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011
...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 25.2W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H. A MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Philippe here we come, and from the looks of the NHC forecast, could make a run at hurricane status.
WTNT42 KNHC 240858
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MICROWAVE DATA FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWED DISTINCT CURVED BANDS...AND EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CLOUD CANOPY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS CLOSED...AND HAD WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...SO THAT WILL BE
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...
THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND DECREASING SSTS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE LGEM MODEL.
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE
SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE RELIABLE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STAYING FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
DEPRESSION TO AVOID RECURVATURE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE ECMWF
MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 10.7N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 11.1N 27.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 11.8N 29.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 12.7N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 13.7N 33.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 16.0N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 18.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TD 17 Discussion for ya.
Where were you between 1995 and 1999 when 6 hurricanes headed your way in 5 seasons?
MH LUIS 1995, MH MARILYN 1995, MH HORTENSE 1996, H ERIKA 1997, MH GEORGES 1998 & MH LENNY 1999.
Im so sorry for your loss.
Click for larger image:
Thanks for the link, interesting blog from the resident historian. 1909 was a pretty active season for the time period, including one of the Grand Isle hurricanes and the last major in the BoC before Karl last year.
Very sorry to hear about your loss. Prayers are with you and your family.
Oh, dude, it was going rotating one direction, then I kinda unfocused my eyes and dang if it was not going the other direction with I refocused in! GREAT optical illusion! Thanks for something fun to celebrate SATURDAY morning! Now, wonder if I can do it again.......
So, providing Philippe comes from it, onto storm 16. If, hypothetically, the rest of the season provide 8 storms together, then 2010-11 will equal the record of most tropical storms in two seasons (2004-05).
With another season seemingly heading into a 18 plus storm season (even if we still lack the lull), can we now issue slappings with tuna to anyone who mentions an average of 11 storms without qualification?
14.5n52.0w, 15.4n53.2w, 15.6n54.0w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_6amGMT_ATCF
14.6n51.9w, 15.3n53.2w, 15.7n54.0w, 16.5n54.7w are now the most recent positions
Starting 23Sept_6amGMT and ending 24Sept_6amGMT
The 4 southeastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the northwesternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 24Sept_6amGMT,
the sea-to-island blob at 17.379n61.767w-TAPT is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the24Sept_12amGMT*mapping.
and the ocean dot at 25.8n69.05w (near top-edge, left) is the same for the 23Sept_6pmGMT*mapping.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 12mph(19.3k/h) on a heading of 319.9degrees(NW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passing ~520miles(837kilometres) north of Anegada.
Copy&paste 25.8n69.05w, 17.379n61.767w-tapt, 14.3n50.4w-14.6n51.9w, 14.6n51.9w-15.3n53.2w, 15.3n53.2w-15.7n54.0w, 15.7n54.0w-16.5n54.7w, 16.5n54.7w-26.3n64.02w, ngd-26.3n64.02w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 24Sept_12amGMT
* The alterations of the endpoints of a TropicalCyclone's previous paths also change its previous travel-speeds&headings, and the endpoints of its previous straightline projections...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Sure? We did have Felix...
Not sure about the hurricanes and majors, either. Another major somewhere seems reasonable, not sure about two. Say the lull still comes and November isn't too friendly for majors (though we have seen a couple over the last few years), it's a tight window.
Yep, the 50-present average is fine if it's qualified with the average of the current AMOplus regime.
(Urgh, I used the phrase 'tuna fish'. Mustn't use obvious Americanisms, particularly when they are tautological.)
Link
I wonder what model that is?
In other news, fortunately it appears the UARS satellite was a fish storm.
Keep an eye on that. Theres lots of deep tropical moisture in central florida, and they predict more rain for today and tomorrow.
Everyone knows black barbs are rain contaminated data ... right?
Viewing: 701 - 751
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