Arctic sea ice bottoms out near all-time low; August was Earth's 4th - 8th warmest
Arctic sea ice extent hit its minimum on September 9 this year, falling to its second lowest value since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center . More than one third (35%) of the Arctic sea ice was missing this summer, compared to the 1979 - 2000 average. This is an area about the size of the Mediterranean Sea. The 2011 sea ice minimum was very close to the all-time record low set in 2007; in fact, the University of Bremen rated the 2011 loss the greatest on record. For the fourth consecutive year, and fourth time in recorded history, ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage.) Mariners have been attempting to sail these waters since 1497.
While the record low sea ice year of 2007 was marked by a very unusual 1-in-20 year combination of weather conditions that favored ice loss (including clearer skies, favorable wind patterns, and warm temperatures), 2011's weather patterns were much closer to average. The fact we pretty much tied the record for most sea ice loss this year despite this rather ordinary weather is a result of the fact that large amounts of thicker, multi-year ice has melted or been flushed out of the Arctic since 2007. As a result of the loss of this old, thick ice, both 2010 and now 2011 set new records for the lowest volume of sea ice in the Arctic, according the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Given the very thin ice now covering most of the Arctic, we can expect truly dramatic sea ice loss the next time 1-in-10 year or 1-in-20 year warmth and sunshine invades the Arctic. We are definitely on pace to see the Arctic virtually sea ice-free in summer by 2030, as predicted by several leading Arctic sea ice scientists. I expect we'll see more than half of the Arctic ice gone and the North Pole liquid instead of solid by the summer of 2020, and probably sooner.
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent in 2011 (blue line) compared to the record low year of 2007 (dashed green line) and average (thick grey line.) Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center .
When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be sure the Northwest Passage was never open for ice-free navigation--particularly ice-free navigation for multiple years in a row--between 1900 and 2000, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period, and the native Inuit people have no historical tales of the Passage being navigable at any time in the past.
The Northwest passage may have been open multiple years in a row for ice-free navigation at some period during the Medieval Warm Period, between 1000 and 1300 AD. A better candidate was the period 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when the Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast that suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years during that period. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4-6 meters higher.
However, it is possible that the recent summer low-ice conditions in the Arctic are unprecedented for the past 800,000 years, according to a 2011 press release by Project CLAMER, a European group dedicated to climate change and European marine ecosystem research. They found that a tiny species of plankton called Neodenticula seminae that went extinct in the North Atlantic 800,000 years ago has become a resident of the Atlantic again, having drifted from the Pacific through the Arctic Ocean thanks to dramatically reduced polar ice. The 1999 discovery represents "the first evidence of a trans-Arctic migration in modern times" related to plankton, according to the UK-based Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, whose researchers warn that "such a geographical shift could transform the biodiversity and functioning of the Arctic and North Atlantic marine ecosystems."
It is possible we'll have a better idea of historical ice-free conditions in the Arctic in the next few years. A new technique that examines organic compounds left behind in Arctic sediments by diatoms that live in sea ice give hope that a detailed record of sea ice extent extending back to the end of the Ice Age 12,000 years ago may be possible (Belt et al., 2007). The researchers are studying sediments along the Northwest Passage in hopes of being able to determine when the Passage was open during the past 12,000 years.
References
Belt, S.T., G. Masse, S.J. Rowland, M. Poulin, C. Michel, and B. LeBlanc, "A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice: IP25", Organic Geochemistry, Volume 38, Issue 1, January 2007, Pages 16-27.
Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.
Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001 , pp. 444-448.
August 2011: Earth's 4th - 8th warmest on record
August 2011 was the globe's 8th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August the 4th warmest on record. Land temperatures during August were the 2nd warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean's Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America between 10°N and 20°N latitude, were 0.8°C above average, the 4rd warmest August on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). For more details on global extremes during August, see the details from weather historian Christopher C. Burt.
Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for August 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Maria hits Newfoundland
Hurricane Maria hit Newfoundland, Canada yesterday afternoon near 3:30 pm local time as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. However, the hurricane's strongest winds were over water, and the storm brought very little in the way of strong winds or heavy rain to the island. Cape Race at the southeast tip of Newfoundland saw sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 54 mph at 3:30 pm Friday as the center of the storm passed. Winds in the capital of St. John's peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Maria's strike makes this Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history.
Figure 3. Satellite image of Hurricane Maria taken at 12:15 pm EDT September 16, 2011. At the time, Maria was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.
Invest 97L
For the first day since August 18, we don't have a named storm in the Atlantic. However, we have a new area to watch. A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa Friday and is now 300 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is moving west at 10 - 15 mph. The wave has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin, and has been designated Invest 97L by NHC. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, 5 - 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Tuesday morning. Ocean temperatures are 27.5°C, one degree above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 97L is embedded in a moist environment.
Most of the models develop 97L into a tropical depression by Tuesday; NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 2 pm Tropical Weather Outlook. 97L should head west or west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles over the next six days, and could arrive in the islands as early as Friday--though most of the models predict a later arrival. It is likely 97L will encounter the usual troubles storms this year have had with wind shear and dry air on the long trek across the Atlantic.
I'll have a new post on Monday, when I'll discuss the long-range hurricane outlook for the rest of September.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Oh, OK. Interesting.
Looks like the season is ramping back up again.
As to the one who calls Irene a dud, there's a five letter word for that one. Just a new name for an old, can't say friend, so guess I'll go back to that five letter word.
if there truly was a cat 5 heading your direction, would you really wait for it?
I posted quotes from the science paper the other day, I suppose I could go googling again. Also the paper from the 70's that claimed increased CO2 could cause global cooling was sited by many dozens of other science papers. If you insist I'll find it again, but I don't think anyone denies the existence of the peer reviewed and often sited paper.
OK, now I am going to read your links
(98L)
Looks like 99L probably will not become anything.
(99L)
Whoo! You got rain!
one line form the editorial that realy stuck me was:-
''I expect we'll see more than half of the Arctic ice gone and the North Pole liquid instead of solid by the summer of 2020, and probably sooner.''
I thought that the ''experts,''had said that it would be the end of the centuary before the ice melted.Now specultion says half gone in 10 years,maybe all gone in 20 years.Well then if this is the case, it means big storms churning up thee artic sea bed, anybodys guess what will happen then?
couldnt have said it better myself, +1
"Darwinism" in action if he does. (Is that even a word?)
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/173/3992/138.ab stract
The TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE has the current direction of 98L at 20 deg.
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 35.2W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 31DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 35.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
I fear this rain won't make a dent.
According to this 98L is drifting NW and 99L is moving SW.
According to this 98L is drifting NW and 99L is moving SW.
Thanks, NRT!
The blogger said it was reported going NNE.
You think it will trek through the Caribbean?
I have a question...A lot of the intensity models forsee weakening as 98L approaches the islands. What would cause that? I know that ULL is in the area, but won't it be gone by the time that the invest reaches the Islands?
In the KanchanjungaConservationArea of northeastern Nepal : ~4.1miles*to*7.2kilometres (295.5degrees)WestNorthWest of the peak of the world's 3rd tallest mountain.
Copy&paste ixb, pbh, tmi, 27.702n88.148e-27.730n88.082e into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
* ie more than 6.5kilometers but less than 4.5miles
Thank you.
SHIPS text indicates shear and especially shear direction as major reductions in intensity, offsetting the increase in SST.
Invest 99L:
Yes, I know that, but where does it come from?
Why will it not follow the other storms and creep north then curve away from the conus?
I checked your link. It cites Newsweek,Washington Times, New York Times, Time Magazine. I don't see references to scientific publications that can be confirmed or discussion of how scientific opinion has treated whatever was published. This link discusses sensationalist opinion, the kind of thing that would have helped sell newspapers and magazines to a mass audience back then.
The web site is "a project of CFACT" according to the banner at the top of the page.
I doubt it.
This one doesn't have a decent enviorment.
In addition, strong troughing should pluck this right out of the Caribbean.
Shear in the 12Z SHIPS text would come from the 06Z GFS, which indicates:
Won't the tradewinds off of Honduras keep it in check, or even kill it?
Yes,is stuck in weak steering now.
I take it you meant "crony?" :D It's pretty corny too, admittedly. ;)
Not if it is already developed.
Hardly a surprise there, this goes for MANY industries involved on the manufacturing front.
no need to post mode runs for 97L has 97L has been drop
Excellent! I like your DIY style. Solar panels do indeed need to surpass 20% efficiency before being useful to us plebes in electric generation (of course, the price will be out of range for a while).
i save you
China Consolidates Grip on Rare Earths
nytimes - KEITH BRADSHER, On Thursday September 15, 2011, 7:46 pm EDT
BEIJING — In the name of fighting pollution, China has sent the price of compact fluorescent light bulbs soaring in the United States.
By closing or nationalizing dozens of the producers of rare earth metals — which are used in energy-efficient bulbs and many other green-energy products — China is temporarily shutting down most of the industry and crimping the global supply of the vital resources.......................
Link
Post-97L: Near 0%
98L: 30%
99L: 20%
They'll probably go ~0%, 20%, 20% though.
Thank you, do you think it will be developed by that time? I would say the chances are very slim. Which is probably why the ECMWF kills it.
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