Arctic sea ice bottoms out near all-time low; August was Earth's 4th - 8th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:11 PM GMT en Septiembre 17, 2011

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Arctic sea ice extent hit its minimum on September 9 this year, falling to its second lowest value since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center . More than one third (35%) of the Arctic sea ice was missing this summer, compared to the 1979 - 2000 average. This is an area about the size of the Mediterranean Sea. The 2011 sea ice minimum was very close to the all-time record low set in 2007; in fact, the University of Bremen rated the 2011 loss the greatest on record. For the fourth consecutive year, and fourth time in recorded history, ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage.) Mariners have been attempting to sail these waters since 1497.

While the record low sea ice year of 2007 was marked by a very unusual 1-in-20 year combination of weather conditions that favored ice loss (including clearer skies, favorable wind patterns, and warm temperatures), 2011's weather patterns were much closer to average. The fact we pretty much tied the record for most sea ice loss this year despite this rather ordinary weather is a result of the fact that large amounts of thicker, multi-year ice has melted or been flushed out of the Arctic since 2007. As a result of the loss of this old, thick ice, both 2010 and now 2011 set new records for the lowest volume of sea ice in the Arctic, according the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Given the very thin ice now covering most of the Arctic, we can expect truly dramatic sea ice loss the next time 1-in-10 year or 1-in-20 year warmth and sunshine invades the Arctic. We are definitely on pace to see the Arctic virtually sea ice-free in summer by 2030, as predicted by several leading Arctic sea ice scientists. I expect we'll see more than half of the Arctic ice gone and the North Pole liquid instead of solid by the summer of 2020, and probably sooner.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent in 2011 (blue line) compared to the record low year of 2007 (dashed green line) and average (thick grey line.) Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center .

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be sure the Northwest Passage was never open for ice-free navigation--particularly ice-free navigation for multiple years in a row--between 1900 and 2000, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period, and the native Inuit people have no historical tales of the Passage being navigable at any time in the past.

The Northwest passage may have been open multiple years in a row for ice-free navigation at some period during the Medieval Warm Period, between 1000 and 1300 AD. A better candidate was the period 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when the Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast that suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years during that period. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4-6 meters higher.

However, it is possible that the recent summer low-ice conditions in the Arctic are unprecedented for the past 800,000 years, according to a 2011 press release by Project CLAMER, a European group dedicated to climate change and European marine ecosystem research. They found that a tiny species of plankton called Neodenticula seminae that went extinct in the North Atlantic 800,000 years ago has become a resident of the Atlantic again, having drifted from the Pacific through the Arctic Ocean thanks to dramatically reduced polar ice. The 1999 discovery represents "the first evidence of a trans-Arctic migration in modern times" related to plankton, according to the UK-based Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, whose researchers warn that "such a geographical shift could transform the biodiversity and functioning of the Arctic and North Atlantic marine ecosystems."

It is possible we'll have a better idea of historical ice-free conditions in the Arctic in the next few years. A new technique that examines organic compounds left behind in Arctic sediments by diatoms that live in sea ice give hope that a detailed record of sea ice extent extending back to the end of the Ice Age 12,000 years ago may be possible (Belt et al., 2007). The researchers are studying sediments along the Northwest Passage in hopes of being able to determine when the Passage was open during the past 12,000 years.

References
Belt, S.T., G. Masse, S.J. Rowland, M. Poulin, C. Michel, and B. LeBlanc, "A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice: IP25", Organic Geochemistry, Volume 38, Issue 1, January 2007, Pages 16-27.

Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001 , pp. 444-448.

August 2011: Earth's 4th - 8th warmest on record
August 2011 was the globe's 8th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August the 4th warmest on record. Land temperatures during August were the 2nd warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean's Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America between 10°N and 20°N latitude, were 0.8°C above average, the 4rd warmest August on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). For more details on global extremes during August, see the details from weather historian Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for August 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Maria hits Newfoundland
Hurricane Maria hit Newfoundland, Canada yesterday afternoon near 3:30 pm local time as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. However, the hurricane's strongest winds were over water, and the storm brought very little in the way of strong winds or heavy rain to the island. Cape Race at the southeast tip of Newfoundland saw sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 54 mph at 3:30 pm Friday as the center of the storm passed. Winds in the capital of St. John's peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Maria's strike makes this Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history.


Figure 3. Satellite image of Hurricane Maria taken at 12:15 pm EDT September 16, 2011. At the time, Maria was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

Invest 97L
For the first day since August 18, we don't have a named storm in the Atlantic. However, we have a new area to watch. A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa Friday and is now 300 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is moving west at 10 - 15 mph. The wave has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin, and has been designated Invest 97L by NHC. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, 5 - 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Tuesday morning. Ocean temperatures are 27.5°C, one degree above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 97L is embedded in a moist environment.

Most of the models develop 97L into a tropical depression by Tuesday; NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 2 pm Tropical Weather Outlook. 97L should head west or west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles over the next six days, and could arrive in the islands as early as Friday--though most of the models predict a later arrival. It is likely 97L will encounter the usual troubles storms this year have had with wind shear and dry air on the long trek across the Atlantic.

I'll have a new post on Monday, when I'll discuss the long-range hurricane outlook for the rest of September.

Jeff Masters

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727. nrtiwlnvragn
3:17 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You think it will trek through the Caribbean?

I have a question...A lot of the intensity models forsee weakening as 98L approaches the islands. What would cause that? I know that ULL is in the area, but won't it be gone by the time that the invest reaches the Islands?


SHIPS text indicates shear and especially shear direction as major reductions in intensity, offsetting the increase in SST.
Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
726. TropicTraveler
3:15 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting Chapelhill:
+1

Thank you.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
725. aspectre
3:14 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
651 Neapolitan "In the mountainous region on the border between Nepal and China. Imagine the rockslides..." [from USGS] Location 27.730[degrees]N, 88.082[degrees]E ... Region SIKKIM, INDIA

In the KanchanjungaConservationArea of northeastern Nepal : ~4.1miles*to*7.2kilometres (295.5degrees)WestNorthWest of the peak of the world's 3rd tallest mountain.

Copy&paste ixb, pbh, tmi, 27.702n88.148e-27.730n88.082e into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.

* ie more than 6.5kilometers but less than 4.5miles
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
724. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:14 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting CyberStorm:
does anyone have a local radar link for daytona area.Im sick of the weather channel radar and all the bloatware on there site TY


Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
723. Chapelhill
3:13 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting TropicTraveler:
The weather news today is interesting. Some of those predicting today with great certainty (and without factual backup) what is or is not going to happen, were saying last week the Cape Verde season was over, and some said the whole season was over. Some of the biggest pontificators have the newest "join" dates to the blog, but have no problem slinging insults at older, more respected, bloggers. Dr. Masters says the Arctic ice is melting, scientific proof backs that up, there is really no room for opinion or argument. It is a limited but verifiable fact. I think we need more respect for one another and less venom on the blog. Reasonable minds can differ without being obnoxious about it.
+1
Member Since: Agosto 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 426
722. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:12 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like we may finally have our first true Caribbean system from 98L.


You think it will trek through the Caribbean?

I have a question...A lot of the intensity models forsee weakening as 98L approaches the islands. What would cause that? I know that ULL is in the area, but won't it be gone by the time that the invest reaches the Islands?
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
721. Chicklit
3:12 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE has the current direction of 98L at 20 deg.


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 35.2W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 31DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 35.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Thanks, NRT!
The blogger said it was reported going NNE.
Member Since: Julio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11355
720. CyberStorm
3:12 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
does anyone have a local radar link for daytona area.Im sick of the weather channel radar and all the bloatware on there site TY
Member Since: Julio 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 211
719. Drakoen
3:11 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Looks like we may finally have our first true Caribbean system from 98L.
Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
718. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:09 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Caribbean tracker, 99L follower, or Irene situation?

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
717. stormwatcherCI
3:08 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:
I cannot find anywhere from NHC that says 98L is going NNE. Can you provide evidence of this?

This is also what I found...
Link

98L is headed for Antilles as far as I can see atm.
Here's the wind forecast. Link
There is no center as yet so we know everything can change once/if it organizes.



According to this 98L is drifting NW and 99L is moving SW.
Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
716. stormwatcherCI
3:07 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:
I cannot find anywhere from NHC that says 98L is going NNE. Can you provide evidence of this?

This is also what I found...
Link

98L is headed for Antilles as far as I can see atm.
Here's the wind forecast. Link
There is no center as yet so we know everything can change once/if it organizes.



According to this 98L is drifting NW and 99L is moving SW.
Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
715. Fishaholic25fl
3:05 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:
Fishaholic25fl~ It's a quasi-stationary front. Odd one though, very moist. Dumped on east Jacksonville night before last.. ~10-12" in some spots. It may get to dumping rain heavy again tonight.
thanks Skyepony!!
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
714. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:02 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Post-97L just south of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest 98L to the west, and 99L in the middle-left side.

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
713. bappit
3:00 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting FortBendMan:
This morning's rain seems to be staying more south in general - along the coast. But that's good since they didn't get much yesterday. I would think Galveston will get 1-2 inches for sure today at the minimum. Isolated parts of Houston might get close to that today but it's probably more likely most of Houston gets less than half an inch today.

At the very least, this 3-5 day rain event should get us out of the exceptional drought category and maybe just extreme? Lol - the dry creeks near my house look healthy again. It might be too late for the fish and the yards but the trees and other animals will definitely appreciate it.

I fear this rain won't make a dent.
Member Since: Mayo 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
712. nrtiwlnvragn
2:58 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting Chicklit:
I cannot find anywhere from NHC that says 98L is going NNE. Can you provide evidence of this?

This is also what I found...
Link

98L is headed for Antilles as far as I can see atm.
Here's the wind forecast. Link
There is no center as yet so we know everything can change once/if it organizes.


The TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE has the current direction of 98L at 20 deg.


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 35.2W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 31DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 35.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
711. jpsb
2:57 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Here it is



http://www.sciencemag.org/content/173/3992/138.ab stract
Member Since: Junio 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1196
710. PensacolaDoug
2:56 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

if there truly was a cat 5 heading your direction, would you really wait for it?



"Darwinism" in action if he does. (Is that even a word?)
Member Since: Julio 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 575
709. STLweatherjunkie
2:56 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting Xyrus2000:


This is yet another example of a non-scientific post on the subject laced with inflammatory statements.

The ice levels at the south pole will not be affected by a warming globe to the same level as the Arctic (not in the immediate future, at least). Almost the entire area of sea-ice around the Antarctic is comprised of one-year ice that forms and melts every year. The only multi-year ice near the ocean is from glacial activity (which has been shown to be increasing in activity) and the ice shelves (which have been melting and breaking over the past couple of decades).

Comparing the arctic and antarctic is comparing apples to oranges. They operate and are influenced by different dynamics.

And the oft repeated "the scientists in the 70's said there was going to be an ice age" is at best an exaggeration. Very few scientists were in support of such a notion, and most of the papers written on the topic were shown to be incorrect. The media at the time, latched onto this and ran with it. Most of the scientific community did not think the globe was permanently cooling.

Just because someone is intelligent doesn't make them an expert on all things. I wouldn't go to a biologist to review the design of a nuclear plant. I wouldn't go to an architect for open heart surgery. So making unsubstantiated claims on behalf of other people in unrelated fields adds nothing to your position, especially when said statements are incorrect. Hawkings, for example, does NOT disagree with the science on this matter, and he has stated as much. An while Dr. Gray is a skeptic and is in a related field, none of his claims or research on the matter have stood up to peer review.

Then of course, you lay down the agenda and conspiracy theory cards. How else better to discredit 100 years of science and research than by making up an "evil conspiracy" that no one can "prove" except for those who have "seen the light"? How does this further useful discussion on the subject?

Sorry, but if anyone is being a troll, it is you. You make broad unsubstantiated claims and inflammatory remarks that, at best, add nothing to a well reasoned discussion of the topic.


couldnt have said it better myself, +1
Member Since: Septiembre 9, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 1038
708. PlazaRed
2:55 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
I'm a bit late in the day to say thanks for the blog but it is all very interesting stuff this,so thanks.
one line form the editorial that realy stuck me was:-

''I expect we'll see more than half of the Arctic ice gone and the North Pole liquid instead of solid by the summer of 2020, and probably sooner.''

I thought that the ''experts,''had said that it would be the end of the centuary before the ice melted.Now specultion says half gone in 10 years,maybe all gone in 20 years.Well then if this is the case, it means big storms churning up thee artic sea bed, anybodys guess what will happen then?
Member Since: Enero 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2092
707. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:53 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting aislinnpaps:
We had rain this morning!!! And I think Houston might have as well. And it looks like there may be more headed our way.

Looks like the season is ramping back up again.

As to the one who calls Irene a dud, there's a five letter word for that one. Just a new name for an old, can't say friend, so guess I'll go back to that five letter word.


Whoo! You got rain!

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
706. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:53 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Well...this really singles the intensity forecast out. We could see a 25 kt. invest to a 70 mph tropical storm within the next 5 days.

(98L)


Looks like 99L probably will not become anything.

(99L)
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
705. jpsb
2:52 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

Interesting. But do you have anything from an actual science site?

Here, have a look at these:

--The Myth of the 1970's Global Cooling Scientific Consensus (published by the American Meteorological Society)

--Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70's?

--Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment (1979 report from the National Academy of Sciences, in which is found "when it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled and statistical thermal equilibrium is achieved, the more realistic of the modeling efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2.C and 3.5.C, with greater increases at high latitudes")

--A Wooden Stake in Newsweek's Global Cooling Heart

At any rate, I always find it amusing that deniers bring up 40-year-old science to disprove modern science. Things change with time, and science moves more quickly than most everything else. 40 years ago, computers were the size of train engines, the internet consisted of a half-dozen colleges connected through the phone system, and recorded music was played on large vinyl discs or large magnetic tapes. Now, do any of those things disprove the existence of, say, the iPhone?



I posted quotes from the science paper the other day, I suppose I could go googling again. Also the paper from the 70's that claimed increased CO2 could cause global cooling was sited by many dozens of other science papers. If you insist I'll find it again, but I don't think anyone denies the existence of the peer reviewed and often sited paper.

OK, now I am going to read your links
Member Since: Junio 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1196
704. STLweatherjunkie
2:52 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting zicoille:


That's exactly there we are waiting for a big Cat 5 ! Just hope 98 L will honnor, because Maria and Irene were just laughing storms...

if there truly was a cat 5 heading your direction, would you really wait for it?
Member Since: Septiembre 9, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 1038
703. aislinnpaps
2:50 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
We had rain this morning!!! And I think Houston might have as well. And it looks like there may be more headed our way.

Looks like the season is ramping back up again.

As to the one who calls Irene a dud, there's a five letter word for that one. Just a new name for an old, can't say friend, so guess I'll go back to that five letter word.
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
702. dolphingalrules
2:50 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
hope these invests stay...going to the Dolphins game..hope the weather clears up!!!!!GO FINS!!
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
701. WeatherNerdPR
2:50 PM GMT en Septiembre 18, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:


It's that cold core storm I was expecting days ago..the one with an outside chance to hit Scotland.. Interesting how it may get warmer core near Iceland.

Oh, OK. Interesting.
Member Since: Julio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
The weather news today is interesting. Some of those predicting today with great certainty (and without factual backup) what is or is not going to happen, were saying last week the Cape Verde season was over, and some said the whole season was over. Some of the biggest pontificators have the newest "join" dates to the blog, but have no problem slinging insults at older, more respected, bloggers. Dr. Masters says the Arctic ice is melting, scientific proof backs that up, there is really no room for opinion or argument. It is a limited but verifiable fact. I think we need more respect for one another and less venom on the blog. Reasonable minds can differ without being obnoxious about it.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Blog dead? Posts aren't showing.


The blog is having some troubles this morning.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
698. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What is this?


It's that cold core storm I was expecting days ago..the one with an outside chance to hit Scotland.. Interesting how it may get warmer core near Iceland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Blog dead? Posts aren't showing.

Blog Indigestion?
Member Since: Julio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

98:

99:


Ah...Lemme check model runs.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Irene a dud? What the heck is wrong with you?!
Don't feed the wildlife. They knock over the trash cans and make a mess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog dead? Posts aren't showing.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What is this?


leftovers?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
690. Skyepony (Mod)
NOAA still has 97L up.. they go east to west 97L to 99L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
zicoille

I would HARDLY call Irene a 'laughing storm', it caused more damage than Georges, Gustav, Jeanne, and Mitch did.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
688. Skyepony (Mod)
Fishaholic25fl~ It's a quasi-stationary front. Odd one though, very moist. Dumped on east Jacksonville night before last.. ~10-12" in some spots. It may get to dumping rain heavy again tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good Morning All.

I see that we no longer have Invest 97L, but we have two new invests, 98L and 99L.

Somebody want to tell me which is which? :P

98:

99:
Member Since: Julio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Good Morning All.

I see that we no longer have Invest 97L, but we have two new invests, 98L and 99L.

Somebody want to tell me which is which? :P
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
Quoting jpsb:


Revisionist history alert

True is here

Interesting. But do you have anything from an actual science site?

Here, have a look at these:

--The Myth of the 1970's Global Cooling Scientific Consensus (published by the American Meteorological Society)

--Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70's?

--Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment (1979 report from the National Academy of Sciences, in which is found "when it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled and statistical thermal equilibrium is achieved, the more realistic of the modeling efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2.C and 3.5.C, with greater increases at high latitudes")

--A Wooden Stake in Newsweek's Global Cooling Heart

At any rate, I always find it amusing that deniers bring up 40-year-old science to disprove modern science. Things change with time, and science moves more quickly than most everything else. 40 years ago, computers were the size of train engines, the internet consisted of a half-dozen colleges connected through the phone system, and recorded music was played on large vinyl discs or large magnetic tapes. Now, do any of those things disprove the existence of, say, the iPhone?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
684. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting weatherh98:
did mjo return i have been gone


It's on it's way...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is this?
Member Since: Julio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
strange 20 to 30 mile an hour gusts here in east central florida with a train of strong storms off our coast.......
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
have a strange large area of rain banning in from the east coast of florida weird.... will take the rain though bring it on!!!!!!!! Link
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
zicoille

Irene a dud? What the heck is wrong with you?!
Member Since: Julio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Good Morning. 98L and 99L.
Member Since: Julio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting CaribBoy:
VERY NICE LIVE CAM HERE IN THE N LEEWARD!

Link


That's exactly there we are waiting for a big Cat 5 ! Just hope 98 L will honnor, because Maria and Irene were just laughing storms...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I cannot find anywhere from NHC that says 98L is going NNE. Can you provide evidence of this?

This is also what I found...
Link

98L is headed for Antilles as far as I can see atm.
Here's the wind forecast. Link
There is no center as yet so we know everything can change once/if it organizes.
Member Since: Julio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11355

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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