Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland
Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.
Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.
Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.
Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:
"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."
Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.
Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, west Norfolk and parts of Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire remain in drought due to 2011's exceptionally dry spring.
September's rainfall for central and eastern England has so far been about 30% of the long-term monthly average.
Other areas in England and Wales had received between 41% and 65%."
Link
Lincolnshire's just south of here, guess they've been a bit unlucky.
Coolest since '93, yet some places still not getting rain.
Oh I know it's a cycle. But we've also seen increased solar activity the past century. I know right now it is not a favored explanation due to a lack of firm evidence, but thats just because we've only recently began investigating it.
I guess I like to explore all possibilities before I make conclusions.
It rained for about 10 minutes at my place ...and I have total cloud cover ...nice, gentle rain. I had to go outside and watch it ...it smelled wonderful!
Published: Saturday, September 17, 2011, 9:00 AM
NOAA Climate Change Indicators
Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
Nothing wrong with exploring; that's the best way to learn, if you ask me. But just be sure what you read is valid. It's not correct to claim that "we've just now begun investigating" solar activity's part in overall warming; scientists have for many decades been tracking and looking at that effect (sunspot record have been kept since the 1600s). The fact is, there is no correlation between solar activity and the strong warming during the past 40 years. (And if there is, it's a negative one: as the sun's activity has faded, global temperatures have risen.)
I wish you the best of luck in your quest.
Because I was an idiot. I listened to the locals who didn't seem too concerned about it. I could of left the day before the storm with a good portion of my belongings. Unfortunately I ended up leaving with the pants I had on. My right sock and my wallet.
I'm going to break in too. Parts of TX are getting rain! That's great news!!!
TDWR High Definition Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.60° Elevation
Range
225 NMI
100% cloud cover in Austin... but no rain.
IF someone wants to change or influence my opinion they would be much more effective by presenting their case in a calm & concise manner; being nasty, mean or rude not only shows poor communication skills,it also shows the inability to compromise. And without compromising it is very difficult to "change" anything--- you surely won't change the world without it.
Where is it going after though?
Also, the first recorded (Atlantic Basin) Cat. 5 hurricane in history...though they may have recently discovered another one that pre-dates it.
Unfortunately thats the hard part. Not only do you have to investigate the articles, but you also have to investigate the authors and their data to ensure it's not tainted with biased views. And we all know that door swings both ways.
Thanks for the luck!
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
North to northeast, according to the VERY long range timeline....
thanks for the link,very interesting site,i didn't have
EDIT: Nevermind, lol...down to 20%.
We're in the downward phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which typically brings sinking air to the basin it is in. This suppresses thunderstorm development, and makes it harder for tropical cyclones to develop. However, that does not mean it cannot happen...it has occurred several times this season. Invest 97L is in a moist environment under warm ocean temperatures and low shear, so it will be watched closely for development.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
I don't expect the ULL just North of PR to be the possible invest but the tropical wave on the surface map that has just about reached the islands. The T-wave the ULL is venting. I checked the 500mbvort & you are right the ULL is huge there. Helping but might be hindering beyond blob. Probably going to take more persistence on the T-waves part before it's declared. Had a tight inverted trough on Windsat.. Hoping OSCAT is 3 for 3 today...
Well...that was unexpected on my part, lol. They must be considering that area of thunderstorms to the west to be a part of 97L, which would make the system look disorganized.
We'll see..
Thanks for the update.. That's the T-wave I was talking about..
Interesting they widened the circle to include the second circulation trying. These are probably going to hinder each other while they both slide west til one absorbs the other. There's a lot of SAL just north of them too. West ho for now..
What I am hitting on is, that each time we have a burst of development each year. We then have a period of nothing happening. Would that typically be the atmosphere resetting itself or what?
Well, there will be breaks in activity every once in a while, every season, just because there may not be anything out there to develop from, or because conditions become unfavorable for a short period.
If that doesn't answer your question, I'm sorry, lol.
This mesurments were in San Juan when the center was passing 35 miles south.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
It was drizzling here for a bit, the bulk the rain missed the Loop but it looks like Katy got a good bit and out towards George Bush Park and the Addicks Reservoir. Less than an inch of course though.
EDIT:
Oh, and of course it builds back up on the other side of the city as it passes through. :P Maybe it'll land in the Lake Houston watershed.
You can tell where it is night.
Also, Nasa plans on pulling down a 20 yo satellite back down to Earth which may result in a wide debris field as pieces up to 350 lbs. come crashing down at super-sonic speeds. The odds are 1 & 3200 of someone getting hit. Link
1928, September 13th; Hurricane "San Felipe II"
This is
considered one of the most intense hurricanes in the history of the
Antilles and the strongest in
Puerto Rico's history. This
infamous hurricane developed in the area of the Cape Verde Islands
reported in September 6th.
Moving generally in a westerly
direction for the next few days, the storm strengthened into hurricane
intensity and further
increasing its force passed over
the island of Guadeloupe the afternoon of September 12th with sustained
winds estimated to
be near 125 mph (110 kts) and a
reported pressure in the island of 940 millibars. As the storm entered
the Caribbean Sea it
continued to strengthen becoming a
category 5 intensity (Saffir-Simpson Scale) hurricane.
"San Felipe"
made landfall in Southeast Puerto Rico in the vicinity of Guayama-Arroyo
at around 2 PM AST
September 13th with officially
estimated sustained winds of 160 mph and a measured pressure in Arroyo
of 27.50 in/hg or 931
millibars (It is not known if
this pressure was actually measured in the eye). For the next eight to
ten hours the eye of
the hurricane crossed Puerto Rico
from southeast to northwest without losing much strength, still with
category 5 intensity
when it left the northwest side
of the island in the vicinity of Aguadilla at around 10-11 PM AST
September 13th. The wind
report from San Juan was of
sustained 160 mph at around 1 PM AST before the instrument was destroyed
by the winds. Stronger
winds were probably felt after
the instrument was destroyed, this are the highest sustained winds ever
reported in Puerto
Rico. As the official intensity
estimates are of 160 mph (140 kts) when the storm hit Puerto Rico, there
are estimates of
sustained winds in the area of
180-200 mph were the strongest part of the eyewall passed over, which
was the southeast coast
of the island. Damage surveys in
the aftermath of the storm reveal that there was catastrophic
destruction all around Puerto
Rico, but that the towns which
were directly in the path of the eye and strongest part of the eyewall
were literary "blown"
out of the map. This was the case
in places like Guayama, Arroyo all the way north to Naguabo and
westward. The storm was
also very big as estimates are of
hurricane conditions in Guayama during 18 hours ( 4 am-10 pm September
13th) and San Juan
during 12 hours ( 4 am-4 pm
September 13th). Rain reports were of 29.60 inches of rain in 48 hours.
After blasting
Puerto Rico the hurricane continued in a west-northwesterly direction
over the Bahamas Islands
as a category 4 storm finally
making landfall in the vicinity of West Palm Beach, Florida in the night
of September 17th with
estimated sustained winds of 150
mph (130 kts) and a measured pressure of 929 millibars. The storm made
catastrophic damage
in Florida also causing a storm
surge in Lake Okeechobee showing the massive size and power of the
storm, at least 1,800 deaths
were caused by the storm in that
state. The storm moved further inland into Florida and the eastern side
of the United States
while finally dissipating near
the Great Lakes area in September 20th.
As mentioned
above, Puerto Rico was devastated by the storm and the towns were the
eye passed directly over
were the worst affected with many
places becoming unrecognizable after the event. At least 312 deaths
were related to the
hurricane. Damage estimates are
of $50,000,000 dollars (Which for that time is a very high amount). A
total of 24,728 houses
were completely destroyed and
192,444 were severely affected. Almost no building in Puerto Rico survived the hurricane
without any damage 2. Many
sugar cane factories which were new at that time and were valued at
millions of dollars were
reduced to debris by the
hurricane. The coffee crops were all lost and coffee was imported to
Puerto Rico from 1929 to 1934
to satisfy local demand 3. The
economy of Puerto Rico which was struggling before the hurricane was
further affected by it
and it took more than a decade to
recuperate entirely from the effects of this infamous storm which to
the date, is the strongest
hurricane to hit Puerto Rico in
it's history.
SAL doesn't appear to be a real issue more so vertical instability most cyclones have incountered this season.
who, when, what?
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