No change to Nate; Maria fizzles; Katia headed to Britain
Tropical Storm Nate in Mexico's Bay of Campeche continues to have trouble intensifying. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate has a large, cloud-filled center, and the storm is probably pulling in dry air to its north into its center. Nate is also likely having trouble with all the cool waters it has stirred to the surface. Assuming Nate is able to close off its center from the dry air, it would take the storm at least a day to tighten up its rather large center, form a solid eyewall, and reach hurricane intensity. Nate doesn't have enough time before landfall for that to happen, and it is unlikely Nate will ever become a hurricane. The latest wind probability forecast form NHC gives Nate a 13% chance of reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Latest radar imagery from Alvarado, Mexico shows heavy rains from Nate are affecting the coast near Veracruz, and heavy rains of 4 - 6 inches will be the main threat from Nate.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain on Sunday from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate's wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria doesn't look much like a tropical storm--on the latest satellite imagery it looks like a squashed question mark instead of a spiral. The surface circulation center is very poorly defined, and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots has really done the Lesser Antilles Islands a big favor by ripping up Maria. It is doubtful this storm will generate any sustained winds of tropical storm force in the islands, and it is a 50/50 proposition that Maria will degenerate into a tropical disturbance and become ex-Tropical Storm Maria later today. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are mostly east of the islands, and the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands. The wind shear affecting Maria will probably last through Sunday. By Monday, wind shear is predicted to fall enough so that Maria could potentially organize again. However, the storm is expected to be far from land when that occurs. Bermuda could see a few rain showers from Maria on Wednesday, and Maria may be a threat to southeast Newfoundland late next week.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria shows the the storm looks like a squashed question mark?
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada this morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 52 mph into the open Atlantic. With water temperatures 19°C (66°F) underneath it, Katia has lost its tropical characteristics, and has transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia will continue east-northeastward towards Europe, and on Monday, the storm will pass very close to northern British Isles. The offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland can expect storm-force winds of 50 - 60 mph on Monday as Katia roars past to the north. The storm will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.
Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict the possible development of a tropical wave 6 - 7 days from now off the coast of Africa.
I'll have an update by early Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You said RAIN and TEXAS in the same sentence...
I got that!!!!!!!! :)
Model intensity supports that
Good consensus on track at the moment, sure hope it stays away from the east coast!
Good analogy. If you have an old search engine, that doesn't help either.
I did. I say it tentatively because given the pattern, there's a decent chance the trough will just slide eastward, but some ensembles show it deepening WEST of Texas, which is certainly something new for this year. Here's hoping for you guys.
If I had hurricane force winds for more than 4 hours, I would call everyone I know.
"I live in a village on sea level on the coast of the Irish Sea. The Irish Sea is open to the south-west and almost closed where the strait between Scotland and Ireland meet. "
Is anybody looking at the tropical wave at 8N/32W (see sunliperpr 419 graphic post)???? It looks as though there is some organization to this convection....and there is another coming off the African coast as I write this....any opinions?
It's not degenerating right now, it is organizing.
I'm basically comparing this to Xynthia, a powerful windstorm that devastated France last year. So yeah, they could have storm surge from Katia.
Of course, that does depend on your source (or how many thousands you go back):
“Our studies show that there have been large fluctuations in the amount of summer sea ice during the last 10,000 years. During the so-called Holocene Climate Optimum, from approximately 8000 to 5000 years ago, when the temperatures were somewhat warmer than today, there was significantly less sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, probably less than 50% of the summer 2007 coverage, which is absolutely lowest on record. Our studies also show that when the ice disappears in one area, it may accumulate in another. We have discovered this by comparing our results with observations from northern Canada. While the amount of sea ice decreased in northern Greenland, it increased in Canada. This is probably due to changes in the prevailing wind systems. This factor has not been sufficiently taken into account when forecasting the imminent disappearance of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.”
From here.
You can determine the validity of the source yourself.
Yes, there is a possibility of storm surge.
The last close-up visible images showed a partially exposed center getting tucked in the convective blob.
It does?
That would be interesting to see. Could change the models and intensity. These models have been like windshield wipers.
Yeah, observations from the islands on WU shows the center between Antigua and Saint Martin, just at the edge of the convection.
No they haven't? They've been in the same spot for days. When is the last time you checked? :P
To far NW according to the islands obs.
Since it is slow on here tonight, I hope someone will respond.
I have friends in Killeen, TX, and this is what there WU weather states. The humidity is 18%. I assume the the humidity is the major factor in the "feels like" temp being lower than the "actual" temp. I don't believe I have ever seen this before. Would someone mind explaining this?
Temperature
100.4 °F
Feels Like 97 °F
If you look at it right.
well wind can lower it like that also
You sure?
When recon gets there, we'll have a better idea.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARIA CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM NATE CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
====================================
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011
...NATE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD....
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 94.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
The wind is 3.8 mph
Just making sure you were sure. ;)
well that aint it then lol its prob the humidity
I think 1 - 3 billion.
I'm not sure if I'm sure that I'm sure, but OK. lol
Not going to give an exact estimate, but enough to make it the 12th multibillion disaster of 2011.
So 10 billion or more?
No, over $1 billion.
Several billions :P
(i.e. $2 billion, $3 billion, etc)
Ivan was a bad arse. I lost a stilt house on Navarre Beach and one of our condos on the Sound side of the Island was destroyed. The house was gone except for the stilts and got washed out into the sound. Never found any part of it.
Pre-Ivan, I never evacuated and always tried to travel to be in hurricanes or get close to the eye if possible. Post Ivan, I will evacuate if higher than cat 2. Then Katrina came and I had the unfortunate experience of getting back into beach at Biloxi day after storm went through. Mistake. The smell, seeing a few bodies and dead animals has stuck with me since. Props to first responders. Much respect for what they go through to help others.
I think it was the day before I died, why?
I don't know how they calculate the "Feels Like," but it seems rather similar to wind chill and heat index. Here, the air is so dry that air moving across your skin will easily evaporate any water in your sweat, taking energy from your skin in the process and making you feel slightly cooler than the ambient temperature.
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