TD 14 likely to become Maria; new Gulf of Mexico system brewing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:32 PM GMT en Septiembre 07, 2011

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Tropical Depression Fourteen formed yesterday from a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa early this week, and is headed west-northwest towards an encounter with the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show a large a steadily organizing system with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, good upper-level outflow to the north and west, and some respectable low-level spiral bands beginning to form. TD 14 is probably a tropical storm now, and is very likely to be named Tropical Storm Maria later today. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next five days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, TD 14 should generally show a strengthening trend. Curiously, most of the intensity forecast models show little strengthening of TD 14, so NHC is keeping their intensity forecast lower than is typical for a storm in these conditions at this time of year.

The track forecasts for TD 14 from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, though there are some differences in forward speed, resulting in some uncertainty whether the storm will arrive at the islands as early as Friday night, or as late as Saturday afternoon. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, TD 14 has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The ECMWF and UKMET models prefer a more southerly track for TD 14 through the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the GFS, NOGAPS, and HWRF models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. It's too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting TD 14 has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 14.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee on Monday, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, and this disturbance has been designated Invest 96L by NHC. Latest visible satellite loops do not show that 96L has a closed surface circulation yet, but buoy and surface observations along the coast of Mexico suggest that there may be a large-scale counter-clockwise circulation present over the Bay of Campeche. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of 96L, were northeast at 27 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of 96L, and this dry air may interfere with 96L's development. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled for this afternoon into 96L.

Most of the computer models develop 96L into a tropical depression in the next 1 - 2 days, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, I give 96L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next tow days, a bit higher than the 60% probability NHC is going with. Steering currents are weak in the Bay of Campeche, making for a lot of uncertainty in where 96L might go. The only model predicting a U.S. landfall is the ECMWF, which predicts 96L might hit between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. A more popular solution is for the storm to meander in the Bay of Campeche for many days, and eventually make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico. None of the models is hinting at a track towards Texas, and the intense dome of high pressure associated with their record drought and heat wave will tend to discourage any tropical cyclones from making a Texas landfall over the coming seven days.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia continues to the northwest as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm. The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. Bermuda may see a few rain showers from Katia, but the storm will not cause hazardous weather there. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia and the remains of Tropical Storm Lee, taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday September 6, 2011. At the time, Katia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding, tornadoes
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Fortunately, the dry soils that were present before the event started have helped keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range. No river is currently at major flood stage as a result of rains from Tropical Storm Lee. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop 3 - 5 inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate but not major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 40 tornado reports over the past four days from Lee, including two in North Carolina yesterday. Most of these tornadoes have been weak EF-0 and EF-1 twisters. A tornado that hit Cana, Virginia at Sunday night ripped the roof off of a gas station and injured two people. More tornadoes are likely today over coastal Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Southern New Jersey, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Waveland, MS: 14.11"
Fyffe, AL: 12.94"
Cleveland, TN: 12.22"
Rome, GA: 11.01"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Blowing Rock, NC: 7.18"
Fancy Gap, VA: 6.77"
Cranks Creek Reservoir, KY: 5.49"
Andover, NJ: 5.06"
Montgomery, NY: 4.23"
Pittsfield, MA: 3.90"
Bluefield, WV: 3.76"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Keene, NH: 3.64"
Hagerstown, MD: 3.60"
Norwalk, CT: 3.20"
Wilmington, DE: 2.63"
Woodford, VT: 2.63"
Washington, DC: 2.42"

Jeff Masters

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Quoting whattheheckhappened:
look at the 2pm models runs especially the gfs and hwrf and nogaps not to mention the emsemble models go look


Well you said everything will go out to sea.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting daddyjames:


It appears, by eye, that the southernmost circulation is midlevel, and that the surface circulation is decoupled to the north - "being ejected".


I doubt that, a system within favorable conditions won't "eject" its low-level circulation for no reason. Additionally, the southern circulation is by far the most, dominant, or the surface circulation.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31985
I think Maria is a bit decoupled now, with LLC along 13/44 racing ahead of the heaviest convection, jmo.
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Quoting SLU:


:)



This blog could never handle a season like 1983.



Yeah there was an 11 day gap between Ophelia and Philippe in 2005 and we are certainly on track to pass 2005 during that period


your right I think people would give up on the season during mid sept
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Indeed. There were a few counterclockwise wind shifts as Recon moved in through the northeastern quadrant into the circulation.


It appears, by eye, that the southernmost circulation is midlevel, and that the surface circulation is decoupled to the north - "being ejected".
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814. SLU
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Now
At
Texas
Everybody
Much better! I live in South Texas...
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North
American
Tropical
Event
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Are you guys calling trolls or what? Just report and ignore!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Getting hammered here in Lake Worth. And it's raining a lot too.



Tell me about it. In Boca, we just had gusts up to at least 50 MPH and brief heavy rain. Worst winds for the area since Wilma IMO.
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Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15267
807. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The way things are going? 2011...lol.


:)

Quoting Dragod66:


1983...? j/k


This blog could never handle a season like 1983.

Quoting hurristat:


Actually, if we can get O and P by the seventeenth, we'll be ahead of 2011 (and considering how this year is going, I wouldn't be surprised)


Yeah there was an 11 day gap between Ophelia and Philippe in 2005 and we are certainly on track to pass 2005 during that period
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Getting hammered here in Lake Worth. And it's raining a lot too.

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Quoting whattheheckhappened:
looks like the wheel of safety will keep all the storms outt to sea no matter how far south they develop off the african coast


Show me some meteorological evidence.

TROLL WARNING!!
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting P451:



Dual surface features. The one getting wrapped up clearly dominant with the second seemingly getting ejected.



Indeed. There were a few counterclockwise wind shifts as Recon moved in through the northeastern quadrant into the circulation.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
802. Jax82
Dry versus Moist, whose gonna win.

Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
models predict maria will recurve after affecting PR and virgin islands.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


We are now on troll watch sir ;)


ERRR!!! ERRR!!! BEEEEEEEP!!! The following message is a Troll Warning for all of Wunderground until' further notice.
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if the atcf says we have NATE then its official now where this waiting for the nhc too update too make it fulley official
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115072
Quoting ncstorm:
Tornado spotted near Kinston, NC-rain wrapped..


Members of my team in that area this afternoon. Worry worry.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
NCC049-079-103-107-147-072045-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0045.110907T2010Z-110907T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
410 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH CENTRAL PITT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN LENOIR COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTH CENTRAL JONES COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWESTERN CRAVEN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER WYSE FORK...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINSTON...MOVING
NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WYSE FORK...
DOVER...
KINSTON...
GRAINGERS...
GRIFTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15267
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Quoting leicaman:
NATE
Never Attending Texas Event


Now
At
Texas
Everybody
Member Since: Julio 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
793. Caner
I'd favor another hurricane for my area this year.

But that doesn't count. Because I always favor another hurricane for my area. 8^)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Deploy WU to NHC website. Try not to crash it...we have 3 tropical cyclones up.


Deploying members to site...This may take a few minutes.

[][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][]

100% complete.

[FINISH] [CANCEL]
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31985
Nate!

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Tornado spotted near Kinston, NC-rain wrapped..
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15267
Maria down 1 mb.
AL, 14, 2011090718, , BEST, 0, 132N, 431W, 45, 1002
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
MARIA Nate would like too have a word with you would you take me out Nate say no thank you and then are storm MARIA got vary mad be come Nate did not want too take MARIA out for pizza and beer
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115072
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
yep your right my bad but maria is heading out to sea and nate is just another wasted name this year


Show me your evidence as to why it will make that quicker turn than katia.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting weatherjr:
If NO answer to contradict me hence others agree with my statements (or just ignore them, without performing any analysis...).
think it's fine time for you and your 'common sense' to disappear now... and with a click, presto!
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NATE
Never Attending Texas Event
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Deploy WU to NHC website. Try not to crash it...we have 3 tropical cyclones up.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
looks like td14 wont even be a cat1 now and truning quicker then katia

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It's early September, the gulf can return moisture rapidly, I expect a moisture surge coming up on the SE side of Nate, gonna change things up out there pretty quck
Member Since: Julio 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting BDADUDE:

Yes, Maria is going to follow on the tails of Katia.
Did you all notice that i hit the jackpot!!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



officia
Pre-Nate-Al
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I'm thinkin' the Prozac scripts are going to be flying across the desks at the NHC by tonight
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Quoting Tazmanian:




its not TD 14 any more its the M storm

Yes, Maria is going to follow on the tails of Katia.
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Quoting SLU:
The formation of MARIA and NATE today gives 2011 the record for the 2nd earliest formation of the 14th and 15th named storms in Atlantic history. No prizes for guessing which year holds the record.



Actually, if we can get O and P by the seventeenth, we'll be ahead of 2011 (and considering how this year is going, I wouldn't be surprised)
Member Since: Octubre 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


TD14 strengthened into Maria, and 96L rapidly spun up into a tropical storm...Recon found 50 knot flight level winds, which was supported by slightly lower surface winds.

45 mph TS at 5PM..


Jeez...

One heck of a season
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

2 in the GOM at once? no...could be?

DOOM
Member Since: Septiembre 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
Quoting WxLogic:


It would be messy but GOM should able to support 2 small systems. Given that Nate is large enough... I won't doubt that it would attempt to steal some of the C GOM disturbance, especially if Nate is able to gain some latitude.

If this keeps up, I'm buying stock in Cheetos!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



officia


Its not official yet, Taz.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31985

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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