TD 14 likely to become Maria; new Gulf of Mexico system brewing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:32 PM GMT en Septiembre 07, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Tropical Depression Fourteen formed yesterday from a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa early this week, and is headed west-northwest towards an encounter with the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show a large a steadily organizing system with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, good upper-level outflow to the north and west, and some respectable low-level spiral bands beginning to form. TD 14 is probably a tropical storm now, and is very likely to be named Tropical Storm Maria later today. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next five days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, TD 14 should generally show a strengthening trend. Curiously, most of the intensity forecast models show little strengthening of TD 14, so NHC is keeping their intensity forecast lower than is typical for a storm in these conditions at this time of year.

The track forecasts for TD 14 from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, though there are some differences in forward speed, resulting in some uncertainty whether the storm will arrive at the islands as early as Friday night, or as late as Saturday afternoon. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, TD 14 has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The ECMWF and UKMET models prefer a more southerly track for TD 14 through the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the GFS, NOGAPS, and HWRF models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. It's too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting TD 14 has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 14.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee on Monday, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, and this disturbance has been designated Invest 96L by NHC. Latest visible satellite loops do not show that 96L has a closed surface circulation yet, but buoy and surface observations along the coast of Mexico suggest that there may be a large-scale counter-clockwise circulation present over the Bay of Campeche. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of 96L, were northeast at 27 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of 96L, and this dry air may interfere with 96L's development. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled for this afternoon into 96L.

Most of the computer models develop 96L into a tropical depression in the next 1 - 2 days, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, I give 96L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next tow days, a bit higher than the 60% probability NHC is going with. Steering currents are weak in the Bay of Campeche, making for a lot of uncertainty in where 96L might go. The only model predicting a U.S. landfall is the ECMWF, which predicts 96L might hit between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. A more popular solution is for the storm to meander in the Bay of Campeche for many days, and eventually make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico. None of the models is hinting at a track towards Texas, and the intense dome of high pressure associated with their record drought and heat wave will tend to discourage any tropical cyclones from making a Texas landfall over the coming seven days.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia continues to the northwest as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm. The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. Bermuda may see a few rain showers from Katia, but the storm will not cause hazardous weather there. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia and the remains of Tropical Storm Lee, taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday September 6, 2011. At the time, Katia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding, tornadoes
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Fortunately, the dry soils that were present before the event started have helped keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range. No river is currently at major flood stage as a result of rains from Tropical Storm Lee. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop 3 - 5 inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate but not major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 40 tornado reports over the past four days from Lee, including two in North Carolina yesterday. Most of these tornadoes have been weak EF-0 and EF-1 twisters. A tornado that hit Cana, Virginia at Sunday night ripped the roof off of a gas station and injured two people. More tornadoes are likely today over coastal Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Southern New Jersey, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Waveland, MS: 14.11"
Fyffe, AL: 12.94"
Cleveland, TN: 12.22"
Rome, GA: 11.01"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Blowing Rock, NC: 7.18"
Fancy Gap, VA: 6.77"
Cranks Creek Reservoir, KY: 5.49"
Andover, NJ: 5.06"
Montgomery, NY: 4.23"
Pittsfield, MA: 3.90"
Bluefield, WV: 3.76"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Keene, NH: 3.64"
Hagerstown, MD: 3.60"
Norwalk, CT: 3.20"
Wilmington, DE: 2.63"
Woodford, VT: 2.63"
Washington, DC: 2.42"

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 970 - 920

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 7
Location: 13.2°N 44.2°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: W at 23 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC issuing advisories on Hurricane KATIA, TS MARIA and TS NATE
Last NHC advisory issued on LEE

Pretty dull day, don't you think?
SARCASM FLAG: Flag
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

It's not going to Florida. Are you kidding me??


With this kind of model spread it could go anywhere from Texas to Florida.

That's a pretty big difference from

'Its going to Florida'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the trolls are out in full force this evening...

Looked at how strong the B/A High is.. I just can't see Katia following the models.. I see Katia doing something similar to Edouard in 1996. Some food for thought there..

This is going by the steering pattern btw..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting miguel617:
Forecaster Avila is a good guy, with a great sense of humor in his discussions. This is him during Irene.



where did you find that image please - yes I love his dry humor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO DATE:

- ARLENE
- BRET
- CINDY
- DON
- EMILY
- FRANKLIN
- GERT
- HARVEY
- IRENE
- JOSE
- KATIA (Active)
- LEE
- MARIA (Active)
- NATE (Active)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:



I know how you feel!


lol, he lives and breathes! Don't stay on here too long, it's dangerous ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Grothar!

(The average age in here just went from 21.6 to 82.3)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


How did you set that up?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/signup.shtml

Usually it sends me the e-mail immediately (at least for me), but sometimes it takes up to 2 minutes (which unless you're on this blog) is great lol.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
XXL/AOI/XX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Forecaster Avila is a good guy, with a great sense of humor in his discussions. This is him during Irene.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxobsvps:
Sorry, Blog...

Nate not headed to CONUS. 12Z Euro was the nail in the coffin.

NEXT!


I'll give this post 5 minutes before the poof calls come.

With this kind of model spread it could go anywhere from Texas to Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
953. 7544
Quoting tropicfreak:


Well the weaker the storm the further west it heads.



so they say lol
Member Since: Mayo 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting Grothar:



I know how you feel!


Nice to see you back in action!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what time will the first model runs be that has the new info on nate included in them? I know the old ones are useless since it didnt initialize it as a storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I bet Nate's cone doesn't look like a cone at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't see this everyday:

Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Grothar:



I know how you feel!


:-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
943. JLPR2
Avalanche of public advisories. O.o

Nate just poped up, that was a surprise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:



I know how you feel!


Seriously, how are you feeling? When I see you on the main blog, you must be feeling better! Welcome back, my friend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Well, we're starting to warm up the set for eTownHall: Surviving the Storm 2011. Be sure to swing by at 7 p.m. eastern time to see how much of a fool I make of myself! (At least I have an awesome panel of experts to work with)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pfffttt, I wish. I get an e-mail as soon as it's posted so I always know when to refresh though lol.


How did you set that up?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


GROTHAR!!!!
GRO!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:



I know how you feel!


Welcome back to the blogs!
Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30823
Quoting Grothar:



I know how you feel!


HEY GROTHAR!!!

Great to see the old man back.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Station KVAF - East Breaks 643 / Boomvang Spar (Anadarko)2035 GMT:

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 12.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 20.0 kts
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 57.2 °F
Visibility (VIS): 8.7 nmi

KVAF is located about 350 mi N of Nate, but there isn't anything closer still representative of the airmass in place over most of the GOMEX. Anyone have access to Mexican production platform weather data?

It Nate heads north there is a lot to overcome, potential-energy-wise.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
935. DFWjc
Quoting Grothar:



I know how you feel!


Welcome back Sir!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
i can only see maria following katia and all the cold water upwell from katia is keep marie in tropical storm check


Well the weaker the storm the further west it heads.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Expecting a ridge to turn it west into Mexico, hope it does a Bret track and keeps going north
Member Since: Julio 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Quoting Grothar:



I know how you feel!


GROTHAR!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 072102
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING
FEATURES NOTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND AND PEMEX OIL
RIGS...ALONG WITH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...WITH
LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED. THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED
ON THIS SYSTEM. SINCE THE RECON PLANE FOUND 53 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL
ALONG WITH SFMR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED
NATE WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT.

NATE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING
FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING DURING THE DAY...WITH A LONG-TERM
MOTION OF ABOUT 110/2. NATE IS IN AN AREA OF VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF LEE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THIS PATTERN. AFTER THAT TIME...A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE NATE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH...EVENTUALLY BENDING TO
THE LEFT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MEXICAN
RIDGE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO
THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 20.2N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 20.1N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 20.4N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 21.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 22.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 23.0N 96.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/ZELINSKY



We Got Nate!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Miami hurricanes beat you. He must have the auto-update option set up from the NHC on his phone to kick it out to his apps.
Pfffttt, I wish. I get an e-mail as soon as it's posted so I always know when to refresh though lol.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
927. HCW
First Nate cone posted on WU

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Miami hurricanes beat you. He must have the auto-update option set up from the NHC on his phone to kick it out to his apps.


lol, he beat me on the discussion only :P

Plus, I wrote something, LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
true but i doubt he wants something smacking into the us or anyone else for that matter the pattern is a good thing so far with only two months 23 days to go we could still receive some serious damage its something you don't wish for imo


I should hope not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I didn't say anything bad about him, I said it was irresponsible for him to use that tone.
true but i doubt he wants something smacking into the us or anyone else for that matter the pattern is a good thing so far with only two months 23 days to go we could still receive some serious damage its something you don't wish for imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 7
Location: 20.2°N 92.4°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: ESE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT25 KNHC 072100
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
2100 UTC WED SEP 07 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.5W
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878

Viewing: 970 - 920

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 ° F
Nublado

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron