Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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1451. Tazmanian
11:30 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


Or you can just flag, ignore, and move on.



or can we this get back too the weather
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
1449. caneswatch
11:30 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Can you guys please stop talking with the trolls? Thanks.


Or you can just flag, ignore, and move on.
Member Since: Octubre 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1448. Tazmanian
11:29 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
dos any one think the E PAC is done for the season?
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
1447. NICycloneChaser
11:29 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting mcluvincane:


Thanks, and I hope you never leave this blog. You are truly one of a kind.


+1000
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1970
1446. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:29 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
My guess, these rivers will keep rising for a day or two.


I think you're on to something...
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1445. wxdrone
11:29 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting jascott1967:


That is a weak point. More children will be killed today via car accidents than by Irene. Should parents not allow their children in automobiles?


Parents do allow children in automobiles, but we have seat belt laws, speed limits, traffic signs, road markers, airbags, and so on. I guess some would say these things are all overhyped, but it turns out they save lives and continue to do so. Be careful, because hindsight can distort your views. Like I stated before, had Irene not encountered dry air and shear, we'd be looking at even greater destruction. This factor does not make the current damage or need for emergency plan enactment any less important.
Member Since: Julio 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1444. ChillinInTheKeys
11:28 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
My guess, these rivers will keep rising for a day or two.
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
1443. violet312s
11:28 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Just flag and ignore people, flag and ignore.

I wish they would make a regular blogger an moderator, like Levi or someone.


YES PLEASE! There are several with level enough heads to not hit the "ban hammer" button due to emotions. That will keep this place clean of these vermin.

The obvious trolls are obvious.
Member Since: Junio 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 880
1442. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:28 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Poor system...

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1440. WeatherNerdPR
11:28 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Irene leaving New England, Thank God.
Member Since: Julio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
1439. DontAnnoyMe
11:28 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting victoriahurricane:


I think you mean millions.


I think you're right.
Member Since: Septiembre 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
1438. mcluvincane
11:27 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


If the system develops quickly, as it looks like it may, then it will have a hard time coming far enough west to affect the Caribbean or United States. The pattern remains a very dangerous one, with anomalous ridging over southeast Canada, but the models show a couple of transient troughs that progress through the pattern, and the storm would have to get by those. Chances are the models are too far north to begin with, but odds favor a recurve if the system jumps to a hurricane in a hurry. We'll know more once it develops and gets a little farther west.


Thanks, and I hope you never leave this blog. You are truly one of a kind.
Member Since: Junio 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
1437. Tazmanian
11:26 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


If the system develops quickly, as it looks like it may, then it will have a hard time coming far enough west to affect the Caribbean or United States. The pattern remains a very dangerous one, with anomalous ridging over southeast Canada, but the models show a couple of transient troughs that progress through the pattern, and the storm would have to get by those. Chances are the models are too far north to begin with, but odds favor a recurve if the system jumps to a hurricane in a hurry. We'll know more once it develops and gets a little farther west.




yup its too soon too say wish will plan out
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
1436. victoriahurricane
11:26 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


You mean hundreds of thousands w/out power.


I think you mean millions.
Member Since: Octubre 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
1435. GeoffreyWPB
11:26 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
DirecTV has a News Mix channel where you can pick which coverage you would like to watch. It is channel 352.
Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
1434. HurrikanEB
11:26 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

AT 8:42 AM EDT THIS MORNING THE TIDE LEVEL AT THE BATTERY REACHED
9.5 FEET MLLW. THIS IS THE SIXTH HIGHEST LEVEL EVER RECORDED AT THE
BATTERY. AT 9:06 AM A MAXIMUM SURGE OF 4.5 FEET OCCURRED WITH THIS
HIGH TIDE IN COMBINATION WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

OTHER NOTABLE LEVELS REACHED INCLUDE THE TOP TWO OF 11.2 FEET MLLW
AND 10.9 FEET MLLW WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE HURRICANE OF SEPTEMBER
1821 AND HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 RESPECTIVELY...AND 9.6 FEET MLLW
DURING THE NOREASTER OF DECEMBER 1992
Member Since: Mayo 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1289
1433. CybrTeddy
11:26 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents:
As I type this there's folks holding onto a tree to prevent getting swept away, or watching surge waters rising along the coast in CT., RI, Mass, Me....as a result of a tropical storm. Their tale will be told in the next 5 minutes. Doesn't it make sense to look at the current effects of a tropical storm instead of looking to Africa? At this time of year there's always something ELSE to look forward to, but what does it matter if you don't look at what's going on to people right now.


While I agree, the tropics are ALWAYS forth going. There is always another system to track, one that could pose an even worse threat to land in the long range if the pattern permits. I am paying attention to what is going on in CT, heck I was born there. I lived up there for a long time. I was also in VA during Isabel, I was closely following Irene. Just because Irene hit doesn't mean there won't be more systems, and we track them. Heck, that's what most of us are here for.. following storms as they exist and praying for those effected by it.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
1432. TX2FL
11:25 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
It may seem that there was not "enough" damage for some, perhaps the storm didn't take out NYC as 'expected' but I think the size of the TS windfield/gust field and rainfall was very unexpected by many.

In my area 110 miles from the center, They called for 30mph winds and 3 inches of rain. well with all the huge downed trees, I'm sure it was much more than that and we've had probably 7 inches of rain. I can't imagine to be going through what VT is going through right now.
Member Since: Julio 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
1431. Methurricanes
11:25 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents:
As I type this there's folks holding onto a tree to prevent getting swept away inland, or watching surge waters rising along the coast in CT., RI, Mass, Me....as a result of a tropical storm. Their tale will be told in the next 5 minutes. Doesn't it make sense to look at the current effects of a tropical storm instead of looking to Africa? At this time of year there's always something ELSE to look forward to, but what does it matter if you don't look at what's going on to people right now.
Western Massachusetts and southern Vermont dealt with 4 dam Breaks today too, one just upstream in a town of 40,000 on the Westfield river.
Member Since: Agosto 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 646
1428. DontAnnoyMe
11:25 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting StAugustineFL:


(Out of lurking) Levi - there's no hope. Too many on here have no self-restraint. (Back to lurking)


Like 1421. Smarten up, son!
Member Since: Septiembre 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
1427. Levi32
11:24 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting mcluvincane:


How does the the pattern look for a long west tracker in your opinion. You have posted the upper patterns before but I don't know what they are called, the GFS and the EURO.


If the system develops quickly, as it looks like it may, then it will have a hard time coming far enough west to affect the Caribbean or United States. The pattern remains a very dangerous one, with anomalous ridging over southeast Canada, but the models show a couple of transient troughs that progress through the pattern, and the storm would have to get by those. Chances are the models are too far north to begin with, but odds favor a recurve if the system jumps to a hurricane in a hurry. We'll know more once it develops and gets a little farther west.

And again though, the pattern remains very dangerous for storms that develop either slower or farther west, and the Caribbean and U.S. are very open to storms for the next few weeks.
Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1426. weathermancer
11:24 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting embarrassing:
another bust of a season. it's almost over and there's nothing even out there now.


are you working for Exxon ?
Member Since: Agosto 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 482
1425. Tazmanian
11:23 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
the new two will be out any time now
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
1423. StAugustineFL
11:23 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Can you guys please stop talking with the trolls? Thanks.


(Out of lurking) Levi - there's no hope. Too many on here have no self-restraint. (Back to lurking)
Member Since: Marzo 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 732
1422. weathermancer
11:23 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Its interesting how the media creates 'super-hype' about something... only to have to justify themselves and play devils advocate later. The medium is the message. Its the "truth" that gets lost in the medium.

Current Weather in Halifax: warm gusty southerlies... more winds expected tonight.

Member Since: Agosto 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 482
1421. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:23 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1420. CosmicEvents
11:22 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
As I type this there's folks holding onto a tree to prevent getting swept away inland, or watching surge waters rising along the coast in CT., RI, Mass, Me....as a result of a tropical storm. Their tale will be told in the next 5 minutes. Doesn't it make sense to look at the current effects of a tropical storm instead of looking to Africa? At this time of year there's always something ELSE to look forward to, but what does it matter if you don't look at what's going on to people right now.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
1419. Methurricanes
11:22 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Man, my ignored list is taking a beating tonight.
well thats what happen when there is a storm threating 65 million people, internet trolls roll in, they sense the nevousness and irriablity.
Member Since: Agosto 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 646
1418. ChillinInTheKeys
11:22 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting presslord:
the money was gonna be spent either way...evacuation, etc....or body bags...personally, I'll go with evac


+1. Nobody leaves here anyway so send them down when you think we might need them!
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
1417. CybrTeddy
11:22 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Just flag and ignore people, flag and ignore.

I wish they would make a regular blogger an moderator, like Levi or someone.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
1415. AllStar17
11:21 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
REPOST
The Latest
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)



Member Since: Junio 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
1414. WeatherNerdPR
11:21 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Well, that is kinda cool.

That's how I found out the damage was so severe in parts of PR.
Member Since: Julio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
1413. mcluvincane
11:21 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


12z NAEFS has a very similar spread at Day 13:



How does the the pattern look for a long west tracker in your opinion. You have posted the upper patterns before but I don't know what they are called, the GFS and the EURO.
Member Since: Junio 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
1412. hamla
11:21 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
one long range model shows strong low in gom at mouth of mississippi river on 09/12/2011 1800z
any one else see it???
Member Since: Agosto 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
1409. jascott1967
11:20 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting wxdrone:


There truly is no overhype/underhype because had just one variable changed with Irene, so would her impacts. Forecasters are doing the best they can and the media simply gets the message out. Parents of a child that's been killed in Irene are very likely to discount the so-called "overhype" accusations. That's my point.


That is a weak point. More children will be killed today via car accidents than by Irene. Should parents not allow their children in automobiles?
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
1408. DontAnnoyMe
11:20 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

At my school, my homeroom teacher and History teacher talked about Irene and nuthin' else LoL.


Well, that is kinda cool.
Member Since: Septiembre 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
1407. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:20 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Can you guys please stop talking with the trolls? Thanks.


Now Levi, you know not to ask something so big.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1406. Tazmanian
11:20 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting embarrassing:
not nearly as bad as any number of tornadoes from just this year. flooding happens every year, with noreasters and all the rest. this storm was a JOKE. and the weather establishment is eating crow. now get back to predicting cat 5 storms based on some cloud swirls 5,000 miles away.




whats that word am looking for yet me see



here it is your an idiot and you no where idiots go


POOF on my | Ignore
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
1405. WeatherNerdPR
11:19 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


You won't be saying that on the makeup day ;-)

At my school, my homeroom teacher and History teacher talked about Irene and nuthin' else LoL.
Member Since: Julio 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
1404. RMM34667
11:18 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:

And your most embarrassing moment occurred with your first post.


I love the way you did that. Quoted the dumb quote without including the dumb comment. The ignore button is my friend today more than any other day in the last 3-4 years here on WU.
Member Since: Septiembre 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912
1403. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:18 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting presslord:
the money was gonna be spent either way...evacuation, etc....or body bags...personally, I'll go with evac


yep
and if something comes again and it will
the flags will go up
no matter what any of us say
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1402. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:18 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


You won't be saying that on the makeup day ;-)


Yeah, I know, lol.
Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1401. NICycloneChaser
11:18 PM GMT en Agosto 28, 2011
Man, my ignored list is taking a beating tonight.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1970

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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