Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I think some of the storm formed in the downward phase of the MJO.
If the warmer climate cycle continues, it's not the # of hurricanes generated, but their increased intensity per storm (though TS #s might slightly increase per year).
Why don't you read again, post 2695? I nowhere said this was prove for anything. And i said this is exactly was has been predicted by climatologist for years.
Conclusion:
By New England area models are trending west... I am sooo on the edge of my seat here in western Mass. Probably more of a westward trend later today.
Yes.
Yea quite possible.
hwrf west of NHC track at 66 hrs
Just found this in a note to my sister-in-law on Nantucket, sent last year as Hurricane Earl came alongside the coast as a Cat 3, and was supposed to affect New England on Sunday, August 29th, 2010. We lucked out as it was offshore, unlike Irene.
CAPE COD Live Cams: http://www.capecodlivecam.com/
NANTUCKET Greatpoint Cam: http://colossus.bu.edu/latestGreatpoint/
NANTUCKET Jetties Beach Cam: http://www.nantucket.net/live/jetties.php
Cams at various sites between Baltimore and Maine:
http://www.hazecam.net/allsites.html
My point is that while I am generally in agreement with you, your proselytizing Climate Change here, in this place, given a major storm in the Atlantic making it's way to the CONUS is disagreeable and will, without doubt, result in confrontations much like this one. Also, I am quietly aggravated that you somehow managed to escape my usually secure ignore list.
Would you care to talk about the steering for Irene? Perhaps discuss the possibility that she may indeed end up too far west to turn out as she is supposed to, or would you rather peddle some more Climate Change Watchtowers?
Yea one of the better looking invest that far out in the Atlantic this year.
20 miles south of Morehead City
Also laughed at the messed up SFMR reading here lol
045900 2423N 07529W 6968 02898 //// +110 //// 135077 079 158 002 05
Huh?
wow 948.1 thats not good
she is well under way too sub 930s all so we could be looking at a strong cat 4 may be a cat 5 when the new eye pops out
Coordinates: 24.05N 75.8167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.1 mb (~ 20.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,700 meters (~ 8,858 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 948.1 mb (~ 28.00 inHg)
D-value: -
NOLA: Population (2010)[1]
- City and Parish 343,829
- Density 1,965/sq mi (759/km2)
- Metro 1,235,650
another wobble west are u for real ????? what part
(~ 28.00 inHg)
WOW!
As of this afternoon, it was business as usual. Those with whom I spoke were not aware of anything except they heard a storm was hitting South Carolina. By this evening, the news stations began a little more coverage. New Yorkers, by nature are a bit blase. They have to deal with so much that it is part of their behavior. I can say that because I was born there. However, they react quickly and efficiently when they need to; as we all sadly remember so well. It looks like a very sad week-end for a good part of the Northeast. I do hope it is not as bad as it appears to be right now.
I remember on TV there was a volunteer fireman from Georgia who was there on their saddest day. He was being interviewed and said, "I take back everything I ever said about New Yorkers. They are the nicest and friendliest people I ever met" I hope everyone on the coast and the Northeast fare this one well.
HWRF 78 HRS
By the time I got up there to help with the FD, the surge was still draining from far up these creeks & rivers, and with the combination of spills, flush, and compromised septic systems, they overflowed with a foul brew.
plzs WU me if they some in eles lower then 984.1
That is only a marine tropical warning, T. At this time for Marine interests only. I have not heard of any yet.
I was trying to find some info..got alot of people around the richmond metro t hat had felt it...I was driving at the time...umm, the fall line needs to go back to sleep...
Hurricanes and intensity, when the topic is brought up i will offer my knowledge. And this will be further discussed later when people start asking why.
So far for current tracking, since yesterday i was pointing out the fact that Irene went through a Hebert Box and might be considered an annular hurricane, which makes it harder to forecast.
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