Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Long range GFS showing the potential for quite a bit of action after Irene and 90L.
aside from the destruction its causing, what a shame all that wind energy is going to waste
Trough is supposed to stall...Irene will then merge with the front...causing rain and tornadoes as well...gonna be a long weekend along the East Coast.
What's your point?
Study: Stronger hurricanes loom
Fewer expected but bigger storms to bring more damage
WASHINGTON — Top researchers now agree that the world is likely to get stronger but fewer hurricanes in the future because of global warming, seeming to settle a scientific debate on the subject.
Exactly as has been predicted..
It happens all the time. Try and walk down 86th St and Riverside Drive on a blustery day. I have seen people picked up and dropped. The smaller streets are worse. The become wind tunnels.
hmmmm, interesting.
baDUM tish!
He's here all week folks!
Tip your waitress, and try the veal!
the 8 other storms this season disprove your theory, you cant just post it during the 1 out of 9 that does...
even further west than GFS
Storm surge can generally be increased in a fast moving storm in areas of the coast that are unprotected. In bays and other areas that have some form of land protecting one or two sides a fast moving storm actually decreases the storm surge.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA I LOVE IT!!!!!
Is that pre-Jose in the NE Caribbean
This goes to show that it's not always good to watch the thin line of a model...very broad storm.
If it were to deviate west, it would be travelling over land before hitting NYC.
LOl OMG I love the Global warming crowd.
Until Irene the Atlantic had set a record for consecutive storms not reaching Hurricane status.You were saying nothing about it and holding onto the Ice charts and the drought. Now that there is one storm it is I told you so.
Go scare young children with your stories
Poof
OK, Bentson, knock it off. LOL
Models are trending west by the New England area.
Thanks very informative.
This is not my theory that is scientific consensus. Over the last years damage, intensity etc has gone up with hurricanes.
Right, but you are bringing it up now as if Irene proves it, when its a cat 3 and the other 8 storms never got their act together.
The conditions are what they are; if something changes drastically we'll all see it and it will certainly be analyzed to death here, but that's part of the beauty of this place: we are mostly all enthusiasts and some of us are quite good; by and large, most of us old timers can read a steering map and make a pretty good determination, based on what we see.
I love those that make statements as if they fear the inherent cleverness of hurricanes and their vindictive nature...LOL
And that is only on one block. :)
Pop density per square mile:
New York City: 27,016
Houston: 3,501
No comparison at all!
wow!
Yeah. Pack the whole population of the Houston area into a place the size of their IAH intercontinental airport and that might approach NYNY density. Then multiply that area by 4 or 5 and plunk it down at the coast. That's a close approximation.
Not trying to argue but the complacency of people is what caused the main failure from Katrina.
Hahahahahaha you're adorable
Yeah, well I know the first time I went there it was like stepping into a whole new universe... You heard anything about what kinda news they're spreading up there?
The season is moving into fifth gear.
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