Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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They can't change the forecast now...
LOL...no, it's more of a welcome mat...
No offense, Floridians!
Over the day, the course has been pretty well bang on 312
The more accurate MET reporting becomes the more people look at the line you're referencing and take it "hook, line and sinker." That MAY be actually currect.....but it may be "semi- accurate" three to four days out especially. We already saw Irene "dance" around PR/DR. Does anyone on here remember THAT?!
Yeah, it was a rough time for a lot of us. My family was doing everything we could to evacuate (it hit my area head-on) and dealing with car troubles all along the way. At one point we were stuck on the side of the road with an alternator that had gone out. We were towed by a good Samaritan to the shelter that was set up in Colmesneil, TX.
They're in full blown hype mode. Which well, is warrented, but they're not really helping anyone by painting a 1,000 mile area of land in purple.
Taz,
Been to New York, also been to your area in Calif. Naw, they would not all fit.
Jesse
From what I can see that Ridge looks pretty pronounced at the same time high pressure in Texas looks to have weakened while the trough digs in. The trough looks to be orienting itself where it will eventually turn Irene on a NNE or NE path probably later on in the forecast period. That said it will be a struggle between that ridge and trough.
Usually the trough is not that strong at this time of the year and does not come that far south but we will have to see. It will be the battle of two forces and if Irene becomes very strong(Cat 4) than there is a very good chance she might pull a rabbit out of the hat. Right now I am not expecting any surprises seeing that the models have agreed on a general consensus but you never know.
Biggest surprise to me would be if this does not effect land at all but it is still probable to say the least. I think the trough and ridge will act as a cushion force making Irene shoot up through between both of them causing her to accerlerate quite quickly in speed. Right now I am think a slight NNE turn or NE is possible in the middle part of the forecast period with a more N or NNE track at the end.
I know a couple women who are welcome mats... oh never mind.
At least.
Looks like Jose has an eye!
LOL hurricane 90L
...or speed bump.
Looks to me like she's mostly on track. Maybe just a bit west of earlier forecast points, but so far the models seems to be pretty close.
NC outer banks, here she comes!
LOL seems to me you will do well with this blog if you like taz. but nobody likes a kiss a__. just joking dude.
COMPASS ROSE
Yes, some reorganizing going on there. And 04 on the radar is showing a tornado vortex signature.
Link
Yeah, I noticed that as well. Not sure what to think about it either, but I really haven't seen any models depict that motion.
Hurricane barrier
http://lubbockonline.com/stories/053109/nat_44553 3877.shtml
Seems like the A/B high is holding its own, and CONUS high has retreated just a bit to the west.
While the models are saying NW!! lol throw them away
Now, if only people will listen...
In other news, our local WalMart is out of flashlights and very low on batteries, and Home Depot is out of propane. There was actually a LINE at the gas station to get propane! The guy at HD said generators and other storm related items were flying off the shelves--he thought that yesterday's earthquake just has everyone in panic mode.
Lol..It does give that illusion, but the center is a little farther to the east of that hole.
Based on your comment I looked outside and saw this...
The WU compass has the W at the top.
Agree
Keep them coming please...up to about 84 hrs
12Hrs
Just like the ECMWF
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Also, it's not just the hurricane hunters who are working their butts off. The NOAA hydrographic survey crews and Coast Guard buoy tenders will be working their butts off once this thing passes. Smile and be nice to them if you run into them.
I understand (maybe?) if you put it that way. That would take some serious NYC planning however. Good point!
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