Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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ditto ... LMAO
Weather Ballons
No
I like this graphic. Can you send me the link to it? TIA :)
thanks
whats a 310 movement mean tia
Well in that case, I recant everything. They are good! And I'm honored that they've decided to show me up with their prediction of my rant than to use their powers to predict winning lottery numbers. I must be worth millions!
I am just east of Rochester... the line did appear to be breaking up but now there is a blow up of storms over western Monroe County
Here you go.
Link
It's this wall see, and it's made out of ginger bread and fairy dust...LOL
Hell I don't know...what IS a hurricane barrier?
anyone else see what i see in this? Goodnight!
OF COURSE! I'm looking at a day, not the most recent jog I mentioned. It's collectively below 315 to this hour. I'm not saying anything but that it would scare the hell out of me if I lived where you do - assuming you're east NC. Not wishcasting my friend - promise.
Still well to port on the same consistent course
I saw him first!
uhh what about the potential flood water? just sayin
Center goes pretty much over NYC.
The ensembles seem to be in very good agreement as well.
Unfortunately I can't post them here.
Since hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the Gulf Coast five years ago, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has made significant progress on New Orleans' Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System (HSDRRS). In collaboration with the State of Louisiana, Levee Authorities, local governments, academia, industry, and the public, the work continues at a rapid pace and the Corps remains committed to providing 100-year perimeter protection to the greater New Orleans area. This video shows the cornerstone project of the perimeter protection that will help protect the people of Southeast Louisiana.
Jim Cantore
i know how to figure it...my posts have been in reference to how much further west she goes before she would have to be traveling due north to make the forecast point of not going more than 77W...we are down to 1.6...that is 2 more runs so approximately 6 hours and she would have to stop moving west at all... any closer than that and it could change the cone is what we were referring to, but thanks, it may have helped a few in here
The almighty turn?
lol
I thought Florida was the hurricane barrier.
Darn! I owe you a coke.
Not a conspiracy guy, but have to agree. Have never seen this much recon.
And Mr. Obama together...nothing will stop them now
For the woman that can't find a place to take her dog. She can also call boarding kennels on her route out of the area that she can board her dog. BUT they need to be clear of the area that may be impacted. (I have personally seen whole kennels of animals drowned from storm surge.....it's horrible) and she can also call the Red Cross and they can give her the names of places. Plus local emergency management. They should keep a list of emergency shelters that can take animals. If they want to receive federal funds to recover from the disaster, they MUST have a plan for the animals. It's called the PETS act.
There is someplace that will take them, she just needs to think outside of the box. Bottom line is she and everyone needs to take their animals with them when they evacuate!!
here is a list of the hurricanes that met all the criteria of being annular
Link
go to bottom of page...
Yep...CAT 2 fills the tunnels...
Well, almost. A rotating body not underneath the influence of a torque is said to undergo "free precession" -- but that doesn't mean the motion is simple! For many oddly shaped bodies, there are inherent wobbles even in free precession. Fun example: Take something like a hardcover book -- a nice, decently thin, rectangular prism. Throw it into the air, trying to get it to spin nicely along each of its three symmetry axes. Notice anything odd when you try to spin along an axis through the spine? It wobbles like crazy!
By the way, I like your post on the poleward tug of storms. Where'd you find that info? I've a few reservations, since it's applying rigid body mechanics to a fluid dynamics problem, but a lot of the analysis seems reasonable. I'd love to read more.
The lives of career politicians and the continuance of the Wall Street ponzi scheme are more important than some useless eaters down south. :0
It's a Shower Curt....
oh, never mind.
You all are really dim!
Glad I am not in the Bahama Islands tonight, man!
I want one.
Wonder when they put out a TS warning for Florida at a bare minimum. Those bands are starting to head for open water and it's not very far from Florida at all.
We need to watch this as well
And continuing to move WSW.
Still looks NW to me.....
They can't change the forecast now...
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