Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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You really need to make sure you take your medication...
951.2 mb
(~ 28.09 inHg)
yes...but you'll drown in the flood
XX/INV/90L
MARK
XX.XXN/XX.XXW
then they need too year a lifejacket
You know what's funny? We were are blogging 24 hours ago last night that Irene was wobbling off to the left just like we are now...come to wake up she wobbled back to the right big time and has pretty much been following the forecast path from the NHC DEAD ON for the last several hours...
...so you can't take any wobbles seriously until they amount to something significantly to the left. I would say a noteworthy left deviation has developed when Irene's eye passes over Grand Bahama Island and continues going 315 degrees NW...
maybe the wish,west,worst casters are together plotting their next move...lol
Thank you for the info sir.
fair enough
Wow! You write as if New York is made of sticks and stones and armegeddon is heading there.
Now Taz...how many can fit down there? :-)
Coordinates: 23.8333N 75.6W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.3 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,732 meters (~ 8,963 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 951.5 mb (~ 28.10 inHg)
I am leaving the shutters that I keep just laying on the garage roof. Usually would put them up, just so they don't fly off into someone else's house in this situation (about 16 panels that I leave up there so I don't have to lug them up a ladder every time), but hey, I am listening to the authorities.
Thanks for saying that. Many elder people are terrified of evacuating and refuse to do it. They'd rather take the chance and stay in their homes.
*Click image for larger version
just look back at the error rate for GOM storms and how much recon they send veres an east cost threat never seen this much recon for any storm they did not send this much recon for IKE they nevr do for GOM storms it's all politics just mention a threat for NYC or DC and money no object.....
the hole citey
Click to loop
Mid level of the atmosphere was too hot and dry. We had a tremendous thunderstorm overhead in Hardin County, but no rain, just virga for at least an hour. Finally got a light rain, but only enough to settle the dust. Still 24+ inches behind in SE Texas.
SIMRAD
90
96
it is called SARCASM... if you KNOW what an ANNULAR hurricane is, you would know they are hard to PREDICT...everyone is CERTAIN where this storm is going so it doesn't meet the CRITERIA... see the SARCASM
(~ 20.57 inHg) 2,726 meters
(~ 8,944 feet) 951.4 mb
(~ 28.09 inHg)
When cousins marry, kiddos
What the hell is a 'hurricane barrier'?!?!?!?!?!
It shows up on the steering layer quite well
Kisses
I'm really starting to like you.
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 03:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 3:07:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°50'N 75°35'W (23.8333N 75.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 140 miles (225 km) to the SE (128°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,685m (8,809ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the WNW (292°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 90kts (From the NE at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 953mb (28.14 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:41:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W/WNW (281°) from the flight level center
General Notes About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."
- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."
It appears that Irene has already started the turn.
If you go to the tropical page on WU and go down to the Irene page, click on the forecast map. When this map comes up ignore it. Toward the upper right click on the storm history thumbnail. Scroll to the bottom where it shows the location data. Subtract the second number from the bottom number on both Lat and Long readings. This gives you the distance traveled in both directions. If the Long. number is larger than the Lat. number, then it is traveling more west than north, and that is the case right now. If you drop the last numbers and go to the #2 and #3 lines, do the same math with that, the number will be smaller. This indicates that the turn is in progress.
For anyone else interested, this is a good tool.
Jesse
If you are within two or three counties of Lake Erie, it's still nasty, but otherwise it is breaking up pretty fast. Warnings for Rochester are aggressive, but already at Syracuse, pretty wimpy.
Buffalo Radar
Whenever in doubt, you can always just pull up the warnings
Link
That looks like it has some punch to it..
The night Rita hit I was expecting it to go in at Houston (that was the forecast). I kept watching it wobble north... long story short... it ended up way closer to me in SW LA than was suppose to. Rough night. The wobbles are very unnerving.
000
URNT12 KNHC 250319
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/03:07:20Z
B. 23 deg 50 min N
075 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2685 m
D. 71 kt
E. 292 deg 22 nm
F. 045 deg 90 kt
G. 296 deg 28 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 8 C / 3048 m
J. 16 C / 3045 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.1 nm
P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 99 KT NE QUAD 01:41:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 281 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
Someone posted an image of one earlier. A more accurate description would be "storm surge barrier." they look like giant floodgates that can be lowered across the mouth of a bay. 15-20ft high maybe?
ditto ... LMAO
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