Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Just a question of scientific curiosity from any one in the know. There are several areas in Manhattan built on sketchy fill. What are the chances, if any, of liquifaction from a Cat2 storm surge?

90L should be TS Jose within the next 24 hours. I put the odds of a TC forming within 48 hours near 100%. LLC is strengthening and is under deep convection. The lop sided nature of 90L has become more circular.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The whole CONUS is under special request to release ROAB's.

I've never seen this done before. Ever.

SC2007~~ What is a ROAB's? Still trying to learn. Just spoke to a friend of mine that's in Long Island,NY and he said he was told Jim Cantore was in Rhode Island. He's a auto adjuster been up there working. But I think there leaving tommorrow evening heading out and waiting to see what going to happen. but he said some folks up there aren't even worried about Irene.

sheri

Quoting Tazmanian:
this storm is going too come vary close too FL i can this feel it

Hi Taz, im new on here, never posted before,but have been "lerking" for a few years. I totally agree with you. I live in PB County and the winds are REALLY starting to pick up already. I just have a really bad feeling about this one.

In recent years, new Hurricane Phenomena have appeared, i wonder if Irene can be classified as such? Or, if not why?


Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other hurricanes. Forecasters have difficulty predicting the behavior of annular hurricanes; they are a recently recognized phenomenon, and as such, little is known about their tendencies. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane

Quoting Levi32:


Well it extends down to 500mb so it is helping Irene come west, but it isn't being missed by the models, so it is unlikely to help it come any farther west than the models already say it will. Models do have a hard time with cut-off upper lows in the tropics, and so some minor adjustments of a couple dozen miles to the track could occur in the short term. This is why Nassau in the Bahamas should be prepared for a direct hit from the eyewall, even though the track is slightly east of them right now.

please keep me posted on the track and the pressure changes between updates, very intnse here in NC, was starting to breathe again now things shifting back west and now with 77.0 W

test

Be back at 11

WTH where is everybody

All the focus is very rightfully on Irene - however, if present trends continue with 90L, I would not at all be surprised to see a tropical depression form tomorrow.

testing 123, no updates in 5 minutes

what's up with the blog?

Our site is experiencing, and will continue to experience, high traffic. Please try to reduce use when possible. Thanks.

Oops. Sorry Recon Data Decoder site. Silly Firefox Tabs, always getting me in trouble. *x*

So who wants a few more months of this craziness? I sure don't.

Quoting Bretts9112:
guys she is moving NW not west or wsw

nice that some people know the difference between a WNW mean motion and a NW mean motion. The hurricane's mean direction is 310 degrees, that is northwest. This user is correct. That is also 15 degrees more in the northerly direction than 12 hours ago

Once this EWRC is completed, when would another one likely, if at all, occur?

Quoting presslord:
George Noory is gonna have a field day with this

YES! I'll be tuning in...I'm sure aliens or secret weather wars are involved some how... I just know it!

I do not have a dog in this fight (as i am buried under the mother of all high pressure systems her in South Texas)other than i sincerely hope that all those who have already been affected and those that will be affected will come through as unscathed as possible due to the strength of this storm. That being said, i do have a question. It appears to me in the link that Sky and Patrap posted as the ULL moved south into the NE GOM, Irene seemed to nudge to it. So the question is, does it matter what side of the ULL a storm is on in respect to how the storm will react to it?

Quoting zoomiami:


Yes - there is a chance for TS force winds, but I think that the difference is that they won't be sustained.

But hey, what do I know?

Even if it were to follow the XTRP model till a land fall in Floriduh, by the current motion and by the size of the current wind field, Dade County, aka South Florida, are safe from tropical storm force winds.

Quoting animalrsq:


Thank you! Please take all pets/animals into consideration when planning and preparing, especially for evacuations. After responding to almost every major US natural disaster in the last 10 years, I urge everyone not to believe that your pets are safe in your homes with a bowl of water when you evacuate. I apologize for being blunt about this but I have seen too many dead and injured animals doing my job and too many separated from their owners never to be reunited. Even if your home is intact, you never know how long it will be before you are let back into an evacuation zone. Even many Red Cross shelters around the country are beginning to allow for co-located shelters (people in one building and pets in an adjacent building). Please spread the word, keep your pets safe, and put me out of a job. :)

I'd say keep yourself and friends and families safe. Then worry about the animals.

So far this is what we got.. steering wise:



but given that Irene is deepening further we should really be looking at:



Which shows the weakness to her NW.

Quoting IMA:


Hi, Zoo! Are you maybe referring to this:
The Opportunity Costs of Hurricane Evacuation

Thanks -- that's exactly it.

Quoting Jax82:
If Irene makes it to 78 degrees west, possibly even 77, dont you think tropical storm force winds would impact South Florida? Just curious, there isnt even a tropical storm watch issued, and i know her wind field is quite large.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtm l/205314.shtml?radii#contents

This map should help answer that...if she tracks basically straight as she is going right now...the tropical storm wind field would BARELY include the NE corner of FL...and that is if she doesn't turn to the right anymore...which she 99.9% likely will...

can someone tell me what a ROAB is?

Pros are working this storm as hard as they can. Let's just hope it makes the turn. 150 miles west, which is nothing, makes a weekend none of us need.

for the last 2 days,I can't remember seeing a NHC track so accurate!!My guess is all the Recon they had out feeding the "correct info/data" into the computers!! Excellent job, IMO, I give credit where credit is due and so far they (NHC) deserve nothing but a solid A on this one!

thanks levi for answering the ull question. i have been asking about it and either no one knows, or people are too busy not talking tropics on this blog tonight to catch the question. i miss the old days when you could ask a question and get a real answer, not a rude, snotty remark, or have people ignore you cuz you asked a question they are not smart enough to answer. tired of the games and childishness that has plagued this blog!

Quoting 900MB:
NYC REPORT:

Very few taking the threat seriously at this point. Many people i have spoken to say they've heard it all before and it didn't happen (overexposed to previous media hype).

WCBS is just starting to pick up the story, but prior to a couple of hours ago, the lead story was about: 'Verrazano' The Kitten
Whoopi Goldberg Adopts Kitten Allegedly Tossed From Verrazano Bridge
And, I'm not joking, the kitten was #1 story, Irene #4.

Wake up people!

This is not good. If this has a head on impact to NYC, which is still possible, they are in BIG trouble because it appears as though not many people are going to evacuate.

Quoting alvarig1263:


It would have to go almost due west if it's to hit Nassau directly. You think it can do that?

No it only has to head at a slightly lower angle NW like 300 degrees. Cause that distance gradually increases at a lower angle..

Quoting twincomanche:
Darwin?

?

Quoting zoomiami:


Yes - there is a chance for TS force winds, but I think that the difference is that they won't be sustained.

But hey, what do I know?

Good evening...I believe that Florida,s east coast will have several rounds of tropical storm force winds and periods of very heavy rain..I must say that I was much relieved to see it veer north..Sorry for the folks who might be affected.

Quoting SoFLJenn78:


Hi Taz, im new on here, never posted before,but have been "lerking" for a few years. I totally agree with you. I live in PB County and the winds are REALLY starting to pick up already. I just have a really bad feeling about this one.

yup will this have too wait and see

Quoting wxobsvps:


Yes, or at least maintaining strength. 00Z last night was 594.

We want to see that atl high erode on the western flank, which will help allow the weakness created by the shortwave trough establish itself more off shore CONUS.

The competition, the CONUS high, needs to hold strong and extend east... for now it appears the opposite is happening with the atl high continuing to nose itself to the north of Irene over to the CONUS which forces the weakness more over the eastern US.

got it. After looking at the gfdl model I'm a little worried for my friends in NYC. There really should be more of a Northerly turn it seems. Just hold a piece of paper along the path of the eye on a satellite loop of Irene on your computer or TV screen and she is definelty heading NW still and it's almost Thrusday lready!!!

Quoting stormpetrol:
for the last 2 days,I can't remember seeing a NHC track so accurate!!My guess is all the Recon they had out feeding the "correct info/data" into the computers!! Excellent job, IMO, I give credit where credit is due and so far they (NHC) deserve nothing but a solid A on this one!

Eh.....the first several advisories weren't so good.

Quoting Landfall2004:


We (Martin Co. FL) just got a brief downpour from the east, from those little tiny spotty bands on the NW side.

yep...I noticed a strong onshore breeze starting today in Flagler county.

This is what I was talking about earlier - amazing storm...this close...heading towards us... and we are for the most part...unconcerned.  After Andrew and the storms in 2004 and 2005, it just gives us all the "willis". 

By the way, I now know the source of that term as my daughter danced in the ballet Giselle not long ago.  The "willis" (pronounced willies) were ghosts who died of broken hearts and embittered against all men attempted to make Hilarion dance himself to death.

The WSW talk was for 90L, why don't you actually read the conversations we have.

Quoting WaterWitch11:
can someone tell me what a ROAB is?

Weather Ballons

Quoting GoWVU:
Dont like this she has not made the turn yet, LOOK OUT south east coast if this does not happen,,,

Looking at the RGB, looks to me like the center is going to be on the east edge of the trop forecast point. Don't think you have to worry.

Quoting animalrsq:


Thank you! Please take all pets/animals into consideration when planning and preparing, especially for evacuations. After responding to almost every major US natural disaster in the last 10 years, I urge everyone not to believe that your pets are safe in your homes with a bowl of water when you evacuate. I apologize for being blunt about this but I have seen too many dead and injured animals doing my job and too many separated from their owners never to be reunited. Even if your home is intact, you never know how long it will be before you are let back into an evacuation zone. Even many Red Cross shelters around the country are beginning to allow for co-located shelters (people in one building and pets in an adjacent building). Please spread the word, keep your pets safe, and put me out of a job. :)

Absolutely!!! As an animal rescuer I've seen the plight of so many of these animals, most recently after Ike.

I have bunches of links to information regarding animals in disasters (pets & livestock) on my blog


Helping Animals Weather the Storms

90L is plunging southwestward.

TWC Crews:
Rhode Island - Cantore

North Carolina - Abrams, Roker, Seidel, Fisher

New Jersey - Berg (don't remember him ever covering any hurricanes before)

Quoting westpalmer:
This is what I was talking about earlier - amazing storm...this close...heading towards us... and we are for the most part...unconcerned.  After Andrew and the storms in 2004 and 2005, it just gives us all the "willis". 

By the way, I now know the source of that term as my daughter danced in the ballet Giselle not long ago.  The "willis" (pronounced willies) were ghosts who died of broken hearts and embittered against all men attempted to make Hilarion dance himself to death.

very cool

Quoting catastropheadjuster:


SC2007~~ What is a ROAB's? Still trying to learn. Just spoke to a friend of mine that's in Long Island,NY and he said he was told Jim Cantore was in Rhode Island. He's a auto adjuster been up there working. But I think there leaving tommorrow evening heading out and waiting to see what going to happen. but he said some folks up there aren't even worried about Irene.

sheri

if jim is there then rhode island should be safe. lol j/k

Quoting WxLogic:
So far this is what we got.. steering wise:



but given that Irene is deepening further we should really be looking at:



Which shows the weakness to her NW.

And the nerve racking thing is, NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE! I have started worrying for friends in Wilmington....for the third time...

Quoting WaterWitch11:
can someone tell me what a ROAB is?

See RAOB here

Quoting hahaguy:
what's up with the blog?

Servers are being maxed out by the traffic... People need to quite posting graffics and pictures and post links. This will help with bandwidth..