Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Total test of faith here too.
Hello Zoo.
I just got concerned when he said "the odds are". Sure, but that is not exactly comforting. He's probably feeling the same as those of us who knew him so well from Andrew... just a bit of the heebee geebies! (sp)
yeah...that's is scary! Trusting man made technology
Eyewall replacement cycles usually expand the windfield even further...looks like another update needed at 11PM. Based on the environment, outflow and the model data Irene could become one of the largest ever hurricanes to hit the United States.
Really ?. It says that it is a corrected version of an earlier report.
Sorry Zoo, hasn't happened yet.. you know I only report what they plot.
Hope you all stay safe, and that it moves further east. At this point you are about the only ones not in the cone.
exactly why i dont fly except in emergency
Well new data from the plane, which observed the area where the ULL is at should help the models on what that ULL does, really does determine the track of Irene. I noticed the 00Z BAM runs have Irene very close to the Central Florida Coastline.
Hi Foggy -- long time no see. How are you? Did the schools even address the weather?
THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
NO it hasn't turned--yet all the "normal" birds were here on the SE Coast of FL today, just a few hundred miles from the eye. No land crabs yet, either. Will know tomorrow AM if it made the turn yet-the birds (or lack thereof) will tell me........
Thanks PAP. Have always appreciated your posts. This should be very helpful to those in potential harm's way. On a storm like this it's gonna smack right AND left IMO. DON'T sell this one short. LEEEEEAAAANNN to the SAFE side. In this case NC that means "left." The north side may be stronger than you suspect! It's a BIG and NASTY storm. No hype.
I think you just summed it up for all of us on Florida's east coast.
I've never seen this done before. Ever.
The Center of Hurricane Irene is currently 332 miles to the ESE of Miami, FL. 155 Miles to the SE of Nassau, Bahamas..
not so much the cone right now...if she goes directly up the center of the cone...the center would be approximately 175 miles from Chas due east...with this thing growing and already around 200 miles out from center...well...just dont want to see those tides at all
ahhh, 77W
Na Hugo and georges was worse ,David,Hortense ETC i just came from the south nothing happened, mainly the north east of the island,
Is their an ULL over the NE gulf/panhandle that is retrograding west and then another ULL NW of Irene? Could she follow that weakness further west before feeling the trough??
The birds are here. Maybe just after the skeeters, but there here.
IRENE 105 105 10.115
Quick question everybody how many lows can you spot?
Look like that
I am wondering the same thing
it's because of politics if this was going to hit fla miss la texas they would not do this after this storm we need senate hearings as to why the GOM does not get this much recon look at all the recent errors in recent gom storms
Let's hope not! I haven't seen a single house in Miami with Shutters. Thankfully I got impact windows put in right after new years so I'm set. If this thing doesn't turn when it's supposed to, I bet a lot of folks in Florida are going to be caught off guard.
24/1145 UTC 13.8N 23.4W
24/1745 UTC 13.6N 26.1W
24/2345 UTC 12.0N 28.6W
Viewing: 1851 - 1901
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