Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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At least Norcross said "It looks like it's going to hit Florida, but WE ARE CONFIDENT IT'S GONNA TURN NORTH." I thought I heard those same exact words come out of some meteorologist's mouth!!!! WE ARE CONFIDENT IT'S GONNA GO SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. GULP
So calling out blatant racism makes one a racist? Seriously?
Up here in Copperfield power is out and the boomers are raging. Love the storm but if we don't get power back on soon I'll have to get a hotel for the family, they can't take heat!
I was in that tornado! The wind was crazy when it hit. Next day we had several supercells pass over the same area.
AND YOU BASE ALL THIS ON WHAT EXACTLY?
Your gut feeling?
Your Met degree?
The ants outside your house?
From what I can see in your post, you did not provide even one single speck of data to support your opinion......
I am with you 900MB, I don't think anyone understand how serious Irene is to the NE. I have been watching storms for years and I cant remember NOAA forecasting a CAT 2 to hit eastern long island. The last hurricane to hit as a CAT 2 was Hurricane Gloria in the 60's
That means a Major Hurricane like this bearing down on the NE is big news
That is heart-breaking.
KFLL 242335Z 2500/2524 06014G21KT P6SM VCSH FEW029CB BKN250
FM250900 06020G26KT P6SM VCSH SCT030CB BKN100
FM251300 03020G30KT P6SM VCSH SCT030CB BKN050
FM251600 36022G32KT P6SM VCSH SCT025CB BKN050
PROB30 2517/2523 P6SM TSRA BKN025CB BKN050
I think you're right. So far just far west. I'm seeing the lightning and hearing a bit of thunder but on radar looks like it's just pushing south. We'll see. Seems like it always skips over us.
Presentation from the NHC website, CAUTION: 27 megabyte PDF file
Inland Winds & Tornadoes
Well.. his avatar is 'NOWORRIES'..
Lotta crazies on this PM..
Guess that's to be expected.. saw it with Earl last year too.
Some think ignorance is bliss on this blog, and I can count quite a few on this blog. (Ahem)
No, nvm, the point I was asking did not get across obviously. And yes I understand that comment was extremely racist...
Grothar still hasn't figured out how to use "smiley faces" when he's joking. We're all hoping that they will cover these new-fangled internet message boards on the Golden Girls one day so he will pick it up. ;)
They already announced they were.
http://www2.nbc17.com/news/2011/aug/24/hurricane- irene-has-nc-base-ready-move-jets-ar-1327240/
Exactly, those houses out there on the island are made out of sticks.
The 00z TVCN (average of all the models) has shifted to landfall at the NC OBX and then has shifted westward to landfall again on Long Island, NY.
Link
The NHC path is slightly to the east of the TVCN now and I would expect on the 11pm advisory, you will see the NHC shift it slightly westward.
It will be interesting to see what the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF do tonight and into the morning - is this a trend or will they go back east.
NOAA: Weather satellites are in jeopardy
LET'S END THIS CONVERSATION. WEATHER BLOG!!!!
Where's your data to invalidate it?
I can contradict that the strongest winds are in the NE side of the storm for Irene. I do remember spotting a recon wind estimate in the North West part of the storm earlier today I think or last night but it read at around 95 MPH
Yes the strongest winds are always on the NE side most times but the wind can be strong on the west side too.
Sorry didn't get the image -
We who have been in the cone too often get a little testy when people question the necessity for warning - we appreciate the heads up and equality appreciate the heads down....
(Heck in a funny way - makes us all clean up our yards... )
Yeah, a hotel would be my first choice too. This heat is no joke. I think my air conditioner runs all night long until about 4:30am.
This is a LARGE Hurricane and they dont relate the SSS very well as we have seen in recent years.
Impacts count,,and if Irene follows the Intensity Guidance and Track.,,well were going to see a Large Scale MCI possibly.
..and I aint talking about the phone folks either.
Have a plan, have a safe place to go inland away from surge potential .
The decisions one makes the next 48 hrs,,will affect you and your's forever.
Think about it.
+1000
Of course I was being sarcastic. I live on the 2nd island on the Intracoastal in Fort Lauderdale 1/2 from the ocean. I have been concerned since it was a wave. I guess some of the new ones don't me well. LOL
The media is going overboard right now so that people will watch, but also so people will pay attention to the fact that Irene is no joke. That is a good thing, anyone who lives on the E. Coast from SC to ME should have evacuation bags packed and plans made. That is all that anyone can do. We will know by tomorrow night which steering pattern will dominate Irene and thus where she will head. Until then, continue with the absurdity so that the long time lurkers can enjoy.
Thanks for the laugh - my nana LOVED that show...
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
2214Z WED AUG 24 2011
NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...
SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/S
IN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS
MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS
/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN
FORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
IRENE.
$$
STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP
I see why you're saying that, but I feel you lost the point of my post behind my comment about new york. Let me highlight some key notes and qualifiers.
""Hurricane Irene is a serious threat to US security on a level never seen this far in advance from a hurricane. Therefore to be absolutely sure the hurricane will be a category 3 making landfall just to the west of Manhattan with a >15 foot storm surge (or whatever doom is being forecast today), the NHC is letting loose everything it can afford, and hopefully no huge threats come behind Irene for budget and financial reasons.
If after all possible data is collected and the models continue to spit out doomsday scenarios, then emergency personnel can no longer play games with the storm. and God forbid, if New York City needed to be evacuated, they would need as much lead time as possible.
And that goes for any coastal city along the US east coast, not just New York. The NHC knows that this is a real threat and so do the people in charge of emergency operations. All they need is to be as sure as possible so they can make the right calls.""
The New York scenario stemmed from what I was seeing from model tracks taking a storm with sub-940mb pressures into New Jersey. My post was in response to someone noting the reconnaissance observations up the entire east coast. I was basically saying that they were doing that, despite the costs, because of the nature of the threat being depicted by model runs. So they want to weed out the bad runs by getting more and better data.
TS winds are currently 230 miles from center... I assume that is for all sides, but I could be wrong.
My daughter has two horses and besides preparing for us humans, this has been on my mind also.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM TALAS (T1112)
9:00 AM JST August 25 2011
============================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Near Mariana Island
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Talas (998 hPa) located near 17.8N 141.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.1N 140.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 21.5N 140.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 23.2N 140.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
The post he originally quoted really had nothing to do with whether or not the people of NYC took Irene serious or not. It was a racist remark/post and that poster should be banned.
in the simplest of terms tornadoes form in response to low level wind shear (which is in abundance with a hurricane) and surface based instability. Surface based instability is generally pretty hard to come by due to the significant amount of clouds associated with hurricanes, which generally limits surface based heating. Generally the most likely part to find tornadoes associated with tropical systems is the outter bands, especially if they come on shore during afternoon hours.
Shhhhhhhh! you might wake them :b
With that being said, I will release a brand new REED run after the 00Z come out, which have Hurricane Hunter data, which also should have the ULL info in it. I see the BAM runs bring Irene very close to Florida.
Ah, that explains the heavy a/c over the house so much lately. Didn't realize they were still here, and they don't airlift to Iraq too much from here any more.
(90L extreme right of image)
Here is the link to the WV loop of the GOM:
Link
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