Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Still have power on the eastern end of New Providence.
Evening thel. Gonzo & Kermit are in the middle of the Gulf.
Hope so, lmao!!!
I just had to do it. Sorry. It's either that or my blood pressure medicine.
Is wrapping up the pattern it was tasked to do.
Only if they were lawyers.
Correct me if I'm wrong but the track of Andrew was to move west but to land farther north in the Ft Laud area, I thought. This is a totally different ball game with a recurve....
Jeesh, I don't know maybe because she looks so close and she is in a position where past major hurricanes that have made landfall in Florida.
And delicious, like Grandma's cinnamon buns.
thanks
OMG, lighten up. It was a joke!!! I'm on the coast in Ft Lauderdale and I got it....
...and I believe the storm surge is strongly correlated not to the current strength (which would be weaker by the time it reaches NYC area), but by the historical strength it had a few days before...
I'll say +1 on that, til it really forms and moves for a day or 2,think we'll have a better handle on it!
No idea, probably never has or will... Although I'm sure a couple came close enough to scare the life out of some people in the city..
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TROPICAL STORM MINA (NANMADOL)
8:00 AM PhST August 25 2011
=====================================
Tropical Storm "MINA" continues to move Westward slowly.
At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Mina (Nanmadol) located at 16.2°N 126.1°E or 380 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly
Signal Warning
=============
Signal Warning #1
----------------
Luzon Region
==============
1. Northern Aurora
2. Isabela
3. Cagayan
Additional Information
======================
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Tropical Storm "MINA" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring scattered to widespread rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao particularly over the western section
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Because they were told to be concerned - 5 day out projection is a warning - Like to know where you live if you don't understand the necessity of the warnings and the need for potential subsequent action.
agreed, Andrew is not even close to an analog storm for Irene
I know it is the 19th anniversary of Andrew, but no comparisons there
The difference is that the models shifted in agreement to the north and now are in agreement that it WILL HIT the North East. Look up the history and you will see why people are concerned about this storm. A storm even off shore pushes enough storm surge to wipe out coastal towns and there are a lot of those in the North East. There will be a 1-2 foot ABOVE normal HIGH tide when the storm makes it's closest approach or landfall in New England. The Computer Models continue to look very dire and show a STRONGER storm striking New England than the one hitting the Outerbanks of NC
It just can't seem to get any worse and so they have a right to be freaking out over this storm. A Hurricane Expert on the weather channel stated it plainly when he said, "IRENE IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO THE NORTH EAST THAT HE HAS SEEN EVER AS METEOROLOGIST"
He wasn't hyping. He was serious because this is a serious storm and much closer than Earl last year. The Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 passed off shore of New Jersey that it's storm storm caused MAJOR damage along the Jersey Shore; including Atlantic City, Long Beach and Ocean City.
The point remains that the people of the NE need to be concerned because this isn't some mere "Fish Storm" because it is a dangerous hurricane.
Thanks, y'all! Lots of lightning and wind -- it took out our trampoline net. Praying no houses have been struck by lightning. We seem to average one per storm in this part of town.
I'd count models as facts...
As to a particular quadrant, I don't think one has been documented. That said, the side with the offshore flow has the most boundary layer turbulence. (SWAG.)
But they did nail Floyd in 1999... right on!
See, Grothar?
YIKES...and OBAMA is this.....not sure which is worse....
I wouldn't say never, but we are talking well into hurricane antiquity.
I think the 1821 hurricane was the only major to hit what would now be NYC proper directly. A couple of majors have been around the area, but have brushed Long Island.
Getting Category 3s that far north is already uncommon, making landfall very much moreso.
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