Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, the GFS at 72 hours has a trough dipping down around the Azores. That puts just enough of a dint in the ridge to give possible Jose a path to the north. If you remember back to 98L when it was just off the Coast of Africa, the models had it turning immediately north and going out to sea. As you can tell, it's still hanging around out there moving west underneath the ridge. We will have to see just how much the ridge weakens to the north. However, the difference between 98L and 90L is that 98L never got strong enough to feel the weakness. If 90L develops into a tropical cyclone (which it should), it would feel the weakness to the north if it is actually there like the models predict.

It is worth noting that the models hint at it turning back west once the weakness fills.

GFS 72 hour 500mb Heights:

hurricane Ike track?

Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, the GFS at 72 hours has a trough dipping down around the Azores. That puts just enough of a dint in the ridge to give possible Jose a path to the north. If you remember back to 98L when it was just off the Coast of Africa, the models had it turning immediately north and going out to sea. As you can tell, it's still hanging around out there moving west underneath the ridge. We will have to see just how much the ridge weakens to the north. However, the difference between 98L and 90L is that 98L never got strong enough to feel the weakness. If 90L develops into a tropical cyclone (which it should), it would feel the weakness to the north if it is actually there like the models predict.

It is worth noting that the models hint at it turning back west once the weakness fills.

GFS 72 hour 500mb Heights:

Thanks. Plenty of time to wait and see anyway.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Cousin asked me for tips in NJ, told me they have tree branches from neighbor hanging over house, I told her you better be teaming up and getting those cut, and to cut any dead limbs immediately and put out front of house for trash pick up.

If they have any large trees near the house, they might wanna consider staying somewhere there aren't.

Quoting VieraChris:


Still thinking some sustained TS force winds for us here in Brevard ecfl, what do you think?

I did notice that the wind probabilities have increased somewhat since 11am. Tell you what, it will be really close. I know we should get TS gusts, easily with squalls... but sustained, very much possible if she does not start gaining some latitude quickly.

Quoting atmoaggie:
? We were talking about that about an hour before...

(Unless I completely missed something in the haystack of posts.)

I have no idea what you're talking about...Lol. Tropicalanalyst mentioned that he thought an EWRC was about to occur. I told him I wasn't so sure about it until he showed the microwave pass.

I haven't been on here except for a few minutes at a time today, so I likely missed any posts about it.

Quoting jerseygrl:
There's so much over-hype and under-hype about this storm, it's really hard to know who to believe. I tend to trust WU a lot more than TWC or the local news.

Having said that...I'm in Central NJ, about 15 miles inland. Obviously, no one knows exactly where Irene is heading, but assuming she follows the NHC's current track, what can I expect? What do I need to do to prepare? I don't want to overreact, but I do want to be ready.

Thanks.

I would advise you to start making preparations today or tomorrow at the latest. Get some gas in the tank, non-perishable food supplies, water, batteries, plywood if you want to board up the windows and doors. If you are in a flood prone area or low lying area you may want to consider leaving. Your area (I'm assuming somewhere around Trenton or to the east) will most likely receive tropical storm force winds starting Saturday night or early Sunday and as the center passes just to your east you shouild expect winds to top out at around 50-65 mph with higher gusts, very heavy rainbands and the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes. This should continue until sometime on Monday when Irene should be moving quickly away from the area and into New England.

Quoting angelafritz:


People keep comparing this to Hurricane Earl, but Irene is VERY different. Earl--which might have looked similar at some point (5 days ago!)--taking a certain path does not mean anything for the forecast of this hurricane. We don't use historical paths to forecast tracks for current hurricanes. This hurricane will surely track west of Earl's path, and like I said in the blog, everyone from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared.

Can't use climo to predict current atmospheric patterns.. +1000

Quoting cloudburst2011:


IMO 2AM THEY WILL DO SOMETHING IF IRENE STILL MOVING IN SAME DIRECTION..

2AM--lovely time to be going out and closing shutters on 34 doors and windows!

NEW STEERING:

I expect lots and lots of trees and branches fallen onto and into houses up north, all you gotta start doing is trimming to save your house, but most wont, probably think it wont be that bad

Not to change topic from Irene but Houston may set the record for Hottest Temperature ever recorded in the city this weekend. Though Irene is over a 1000 miles away the rotation will bring some drier air into Texas (Drier air heats up faster). The all time high is 109 degrees and as of right now the high Saturday is expected to be 107. What a heat wave this has been! The entire month of August has been at or above 100 degrees in Houston. Ive never seen anything like this here and 1980 was bad but this is by far the worse.

Quoting charlottefl:


Can't use climo to predict current atmospheric patterns.. +1000

Right, but even if, at least get the historical comparison right.

Earl, for example, did not track across the Bahamas.

There's a huge archive on this site, dating back to 1851. Sure you can find a similar one.

Quoting BA:
check out canadian, heh

12Z CMC really ramps up 98L into a likely hurricane. Moves out to the east of Irene though. Not sure if this is realistic, would likely be a lot of shear from Irene's outflow.

Quoting wxobsvps:
18hr forecast from RUC shows 591dm high pressure near Bermuda:

Dude you took my avatar pic lol

Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:

WTH? NHC not showing that.

Quoting angelafritz:


People keep comparing this to Hurricane Earl, but Irene is VERY different. Earl--which might have looked similar at some point (5 days ago!)--taking a certain path does not mean anything for the forecast of this hurricane. We don't use historical paths to forecast tracks for current hurricanes. This hurricane will surely track west of Earl's path, and like I said in the blog, everyone from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared.

I'm preparing now Angela.I'm stocked up on water and canned goods.In case something goes wrong.

Two things worry me:

Irenes Cone shifted West and
Irene growing Bigger and Stronger

I hope were not about to begin a Westward trend again.

That would be most unfortunate for the east coast.

Quoting charlottefl:
NEW STEERING:

still pumping the ridge

Quoting atmoaggie:
? We were talking about that about an hour before...

(Unless I completely missed something in the haystack of posts.)

The morning crew was talking about it this morning when the HH plane found a second wind maximum on three successive center fixes. Took a long time to actually begin though.

Quoting charlottefl:


It has to do with the High's. The Texas high has retrograded from the West Coast therefore lowering pressure. Nothing to do with the storm..

Again, the OFFICIAL reading at the Sarasota Airport is 1009.5mb, unless there is a 7mb difference between the airport and where this blogger lives, I would say it is highly inaccurate. And if there is a 7mb difference from one point in Sarasota to the next, then there must be some hurricane force winds happening there as we speak. Just sayin...

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


WTH? NHC not showing that.

It's on the main page of the Tropic Storm Page of www.wunderground.com

Go here and look at Alerts: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at20 1109.html

Quoting washingtonian115:
hurricane Ike track?

Hard to know anything like that at this point.

Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Again, the OFFICIAL reading at the Sarasota Airport is 1009.5mb, unless there is a 7mb difference between the airport and where this blogger lives, I would say it is highly inaccurate. And if there is a 7mb difference from one point in Sarasota to the next, then there must be some hurricane force winds happening there as we speak. Just sayin...

My bad, I misread the post thought you were saying that reading was on the East Coast :)

I have to say, the inconvenience of spending a day or two away from home for no reason, does not weigh up against the possibility of either sitting in traffic trying to flee together with thousands of others, or riding out a potentially dangerous storm.
If it was me sitting in North Carolina, I'd find a reason to go elsewhere right now, after boarding up my house!

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


EGRR is the forecast issued by the UKMET Office

That was in the MIT model descriptions.. that EGRR is Bracknell model (old version of UKMET)..where UKM(JUKM) - is the UKMET model. They should be using over the other 2 they run, it's doing better.

Quoting charlottefl:
NEW STEERING:

No No, No, No, No, No, NO!

Quoting angelafritz:


People keep comparing this to Hurricane Earl, but Irene is VERY different. Earl--which might have looked similar at some point (5 days ago!)--taking a certain path does not mean anything for the forecast of this hurricane. We don't use historical paths to forecast tracks for current hurricanes. This hurricane will surely track west of Earl's path, and like I said in the blog, everyone from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared.

Glad youpointed that out,some think that historicals should be used. different hurricane, different conditions. Simple:)

Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Based on satellite trends, it appears as if Irene will miss the projected 8pm point (based on the 11am advisory) by about 15-20 miles to the WNW. It would have to go 0.3N 0.1W in order to hit that point (23.4N 74.8W), and that appears unlikely. Not meaning that it will not align with the next point, but perhaps with the computer models moving it slightly west, along with extrapolated satellite analysis, that could be the reason(s) why they moved it a few miles west.

Also TS wind field expands to 230 miles... she is a big Bahama mama.

Seems like its no so much the route as it is the destination as we have seen lately. They are going to be off points for sure, but models kind pretty much tell where these things will ultimately find a home.

Quoting angelafritz:


People keep comparing this to Hurricane Earl, but Irene is VERY different. Earl--which might have looked similar at some point (5 days ago!)--taking a certain path does not mean anything for the forecast of this hurricane. We don't use historical paths to forecast tracks for current hurricanes. This hurricane will surely track west of Earl's path, and like I said in the blog, everyone from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared.

I'm not prepared :\

Quoting atmosweather:


I would advise you to start making preparations today or tomorrow at the latest. Get some gas in the tank, non-perishable food supplies, water, batteries, plywood if you want to board up the windows and doors. If you are in a flood prone area or low lying area you may want to consider leaving. Your area (I'm assuming somewhere around Trenton or to the east) will most likely receive tropical storm force winds starting Saturday night or early Sunday and as the center passes just to your east you shouild expect winds to top out at around 50-65 mph with higher gusts, very heavy rainbands and the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes. This should continue until sometime on Monday when Irene should be moving quickly away from the area and into New England.

*gulp*

About midway between Trenton and the coast, in Freehold. With the monsoon-like rains this past weekend, my front yard was a swamp, my pool overflowed, drainage ditches backed up, and about 3" or so of water was running down the streets. We're pretty well saturated already, so flooding is likely. My house is 1 floor, on a slab. 190 feet above sea level, if that matters.

Plywood on the windows? Really??? I was thinking I needed to take down the hanging baskets and put away the porch furniture!

Threat of Irene exposes New York's vulnerability



Latest track models suggest Long Island hit on Sunday

* 1821, 1938 storms show potential for severe loss

* Some already warning of $10 billion-plus disaster

NEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - In the annals of natural disasters, it doesn't get much worse than a major hurricane directly striking New York City and Long Island.

Hurricane Irene is on a course that will take it up the East Coast from the weekend. While there is still uncertainty about where it will hit and when, the forecast models increasingly suggest some parts of the greater New York area will face some type of storm or hurricane impact. [ID:nN1E77N00M]

According to New York City's Office of Emergency Management, the last hurricane to pass directly over the city was in 1821 -- and it caused tides to rise 13 feet in one hour, flooding all of lower Manhattan to Canal St.

But for Long Island, the threat is much worse. People still talk about the Long Island Express of 1938, a Category 3 storm that the U.S. government has said would cause $40 billion in damage if it hit today.

Meteorologists say the risk appears most acute for areas like the Hamptons, an eastern Long Island playground for New York's rich.

"If the storm followed the exact track of it, there could be considerable wind damage and tidal flooding out in those areas," said James Aman, senior meteorologist with WeatherBug. "There potentially could be some storm surge problems out around the eastern tip of Long Island, Rhode Island, Cape Cod, some of the areas around Boston that face Massachusetts Bay."

Estimating the damage such an impact would cause is difficult without knowing the storm's parameters, like wind speed, rainfall totals, direction and the like. Some are already taking a ballpark guess, though.

"If Irene hits Long Island or southeast Massachusetts, the storm has the potential to be a $10 billion disaster," Weather Underground's Jeff Masters said in a blog post Wednesday.

If Masters is right, that would make the insured losses from Irene some of the worst in history, at a time that insurers are already stretched by record-breaking natural disasters around the world.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/24/storm-n ewyork-idUSN1E77N0DI20110824

Quoting Skyepony:
Taking a hard look at the average model error (in nm) for Irene.. Not doing so good overall for this storm.

Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr 120hr
AVNI 0 57.0 87.3 109.9 129.4 130.1
CMC 33.2 60.2 93.0 128.1 - -
EGRR 17.3 57.6 153.2 262.8 - -(old version of UKMET)
AEMN 28.0 67.1 98.3 127.5 131.8 111.1 (GFS ensemble)
GFDL 10.6 52.7 154.2 253.8 403.7 -
GFDN 3.3 65.5 113.0 173.5 - -
HWRF 7.8 57.5 97.4 128.8 169.2 161.4
OFCL 0 55.8 111.6 165.3 - -
TVCN 0 54.7 90.9 121.5 121.2 111.9

Comparing the last run only..like who is doing best today..one stood out
AVNI 0 11.1 12.6 44.8 -

It would be nice to know if the error was East or West. Does any site give you the error by direction?

Have we reached the point yet where every wobble, which is how big systems like Irene move, in the classic stair step fashion, is causing people to panic about how the forecast is wrong and its headed their way?

Oh, we have? Carry on.

Still watching this one up in Hampton, Va...close enough to make me nervous atm. My gut, which is reliable as the next guy's, does have me wondering if this is the one that gets New England, regardless of what it does here. Hoping no one gets it, though, Irene means business.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No No, No, No, No, No, NO!

Um? Care to explain lol?

18z GFS starting:

Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:

It's on the main page of the Tropic Storm Page of www.wunderground.com

Go here and look at Alerts: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at20 1109.html

Yeah, I did b4 I posted to verify it.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

NHC has NOT put up any warnings for FL.

Quoting ecflweatherfan:


I did notice that the wind probabilities have increased somewhat since 11am. Tell you what, it will be really close. I know we should get TS gusts, easily with squalls... but sustained, very much possible if she does not start gaining some latitude quickly.

I am in brevard as well and still waitin for her to turn. seems she is missing key points and not gaining any latitude of significance. Someone else posted that we in central florida coast are under TS warnings now. really need to watch for the turn if she continues to track WNW the models may shift and wind probabilities are increasing now but may be worse when they run it again tonight.

Quoting angelafritz:


Excellent.

I've left my family with the supplies.I plan to go storm chasing if Irene does indeed come to the Outer Banks.

1006.1 mb according to my pressure gauge. and it's dropped pretty significantly recently.

.25 hPa in the past 6 hours.

Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Again, the OFFICIAL reading at the Sarasota Airport is 1009.5mb, unless there is a 7mb difference between the airport and where this blogger lives, I would say it is highly inaccurate. And if there is a 7mb difference from one point in Sarasota to the next, then there must be some hurricane force winds happening there as we speak. Just sayin...

Or the other barometer is on a rather tall hill...
(in S Florida?)

Quoting jerseygrl:


*gulp*

About midway between Trenton and the coast, in Freehold. With the monsoon-like rains this past weekend, my front yard was a swamp, my pool overflowed, drainage ditches backed up, and about 3" or so of water was running down the streets. We're pretty well saturated already, so flooding is likely. My house is 1 floor, on a slab. 190 feet above sea level, if that matters.

Plywood on the windows? Really??? I was thinking I needed to take down the hanging baskets and put away the porch furniture!

In Fla. we throw the porch furniture in the pool!

Seriously, you need to be concerned with flying debris and falling trees breaking your windows--then in comes the wind and water.

6hrs: