Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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What a big storm. Aw, she's like a little Ike. I still remember driving to work in Plaquemines parish the morning Ike made its closest approach to the mouth of the river. It was like driving in a tropical storm--because I basically was!.
Doesn't look so as the wind was close to 30 mph
Wow...And this is without an eye being present on satellite.
ouch
Make Sure to visit me ;)
why
That is a large area in the low 950s, almost 10 min flight time.
Edit Add: Now see they flew in a circle
One 951.8 and the other 949.9
To me the size of Floyd was amazing, and Irene is getting close.
I'm thinking so...
You need to click the update button at the bottom of the ignore list for it to take.
Because we both want to come to your house :D and hang out... Lol... So is it possible irene can get even bigger... I think so! Im starting to get worried about the rain loosening the pine trees in my neighbors yard and one falling on my house they have to be atleast 25-30ft tall maybe bigger.
There was a 1016.?
You sure you wanna ask that lol?
Irene is becoming a very dangerous system
949.9 rounds up to 950
Look at the bottom of this page under "Admin Notice", it gives you "Rules of the Road-How to ignore a blogger"
I think the 1 mb. per 10 mph rule applies...If so, the pressure should be around 945/946 mb.
Coordinates: 23.3833N 75.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,726 meters (~ 8,944 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 951.8 mb (~ 28.11 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 282° at 3 knots (From the WNW at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 14.5°C (~ 58.1°F)
Dew Pt: 12.8°C (~ 55.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots* (~ 27.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr* (~ 0.04 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Think this is probably the new center fix, not too sure though
I never had to make a blog entry, but may have had to log in and out. Been a while, and wasn't really momentous enough to remember. ;)
Weather-wise, been getting strong rain bands every day here east of Tampa, even when the rain chance is 30%, and glad to not have to water the tiny veggie seedlings. Gonna cut back on non-essentials at the grocery store so we can send $25 to Bahamas relief.
THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED NEAR THE EYEWALL AND NOW SOLIDLY SURROUNDS
THE EYE. BEFORE DEPARTING IRENE...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 116 KT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 954 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UW-CIMMS
OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO
PREDICT A HIGH CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. IN FACT...A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE
OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL. THESE EYEWALL CYCLES CAN PRODUCE HARD TO
PREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A
LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. IN 3-4 DAYS....INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT NEARS NEW
ENGLAND.
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/10 KT. IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE. BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER IRENE TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT
TIME. THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.
this should answer some of the eyewall replacement cycle questions
not going too tell you where i live lol
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