Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I would honestly strongly consider heading to the mainland even if it's only 10 miles. You're talking about potentially a cat 4 passing to your south, and not very far. If it were me I wouldn't be on a barrier island up there right now. Just a thought.
Should be the proper definition of a fish storm. But you didn't hear me say that :P
TAFB gave it a T1.5 at 18z.
EGRR is the forecast issued by the UKMET Office
Meanwhile, the Texas Ridge holds firm and there's no rest for the weary.
Also TS wind field expands to 230 miles... she is a big Bahama mama.
Agreed.
I'm just pointing out that it is not an accurate comparison. Why don't we just say whatever we want?
there no hurricane watch out yet
Any thoughts on why models show 90L going northwards well out in the Atlantic despite the building ridge across the ocean?
Why on earth is that sad?
She's gonna be Ike's size once she's going up the coast
Good analyis Skyepony, thanks.
And not to be an alarmist that forces you to feel foolish putting your shutters up early, but this is exactly why you prepare the way you have Grandpato4
Models always do that in the far easter atlantic lol
How do you know that for sure?
Still thinking some sustained TS force winds for us here in Brevard ecfl, what do you think?
The TV guy was her for Hugo so he knows that storms can sometimes change course
Sorry to any of you all in the OBX, either way this goes, it's not going to be good for you down there.
You are absolutely correct as of today at this time. Two days ago it was going directed at you. There are too many factors to consider and this storm is too far away to make that accurate a prediction. Yesterday I told someone that we would only get 20 to 30 mph winds in Miami; but now the Hurricane is growing to a possible CAT 4 in the Bahamas; which means that there is now a possibility of TS force winds in Miami due to the size of the storm, not just the direction of the storm. Who knows what tomorrow will bring. Just keep an eye on it and be prepared to take the appropriate action as needed.
Nice CDO
Or do we hold our fingers crossed ,, what the winds at the bouy now ?
Gulp.
Signed,
Wilmingtonian (Wilmingtonite?)
Better re-check that gauge... the official pressure reading at KSRQ is 1009.5, I am over on the east coast of FL (e.g. closer to Irene) and our pressures aren't even that low yet.
Having said that...I'm in Central NJ, about 15 miles inland. Obviously, no one knows exactly where Irene is heading, but assuming she follows the NHC's current track, what can I expect? What do I need to do to prepare? I don't want to overreact, but I do want to be ready.
Thanks.
Not updated for Irene, but there are some general scenario maps (Cat 1, 2, 3, etc, high tide, max surge) and the simple answer is yes you might need to worry. The highest potential surges for the northern shore of long island are the areas closest to the mainland.
She will expand more, longer storms travel the bigger the wind fields get,
You an NC resident too?
There is no error in the path. It might be a tiny bit west, but these erratic short-term motions are expected with a hurricane. Later tonight there will be a wobble north and Irene will look like she is east of the NHC track.
Well, the GFS at 72 hours has a trough dipping down around the Azores. That puts just enough of a dint in the ridge to give possible Jose a path to the north. If you remember back to 98L when it was just off the Coast of Africa, the models had it turning immediately north and going out to sea. As you can tell, it's still hanging around out there moving west underneath the ridge. We will have to see just how much the ridge weakens to the north. However, the difference between 98L and 90L is that 98L never got strong enough to feel the weakness. If 90L develops into a tropical cyclone (which it should), it would feel the weakness to the north if it is actually there like the models predict.
It is worth noting that the models hint at it turning back west once the weakness fills.
GFS 72 hour 500mb Heights:
(Unless I completely missed something in the haystack of posts.)
It has to do with the High's. The Texas high has retrograded from the West Coast therefore lowering pressure. Nothing to do with the storm..
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