Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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" that Irene wont go there LOL "
Left turn no good. Right turn good.
That storm will never go there with his 5'2 stormshield
Still got that weird gut feeling about what happens once Irene gets out of the Mid-Atlantic. The Northeast could be in for a bad time.
New Jersey is DOOMED!!!!!
lol
Lol...That's funny, I don't care who you are...
Is that the exuma where the 4 seasons hotel is ?. I think it has since been sold though. I stayed there once, has a lovely bay and golf course.
80 mph is pretty serious stuff so soon
Norcross isn't one to sensationalize or throw words about.
Wow!
He gets to chow down on some amazing seafood!
Clipped the Carolinas.
7-8inches of rain over New England.
Brushed western Long Island and made landfall in Rhode Island with 100mph.
80-100mph wind gusts along the coast.
Continued through Maine and New Brunswick as a tropical storm.
About 3.5 billion (2011) in damage when all said and done.
Sort of expecting the same from Irene (should the current forecasts verify). Maybe a bit more since she should be larger, but possibly slightly weaker upon arrival.
And then there's the Caribbean/Bahama damage.
Ya that's what caught my attention. I've been keeping my folks well informed in Eastern MA.
Its a Sandals now. Want to visit badly. But maybe not this weekend.
He got brand new TWC rain gear which will never get wet.
Looks that way as it is now near Tampa but the Hercules is close to the system
It's a trof/front, not a high pressure ridge. Plus, too far away for any influence (and travelling the wrong direction).
Check my blog out if you want to get more information about what's been going on here with Irene.
Clipped NORTH Carolina. Right, Press?
I've got 12 inches of rain since August 1st(Trinidad),looks like about 5 more before month's end.
Fear monger hyped for ratings. These guys infuse too much emotional and subjective aspects into their television forecasting. Less passion and more objectivity wod lend more credibility. Just listen to the adjectives they stress over and over in every sentence they say.
ya know..i've been a CAT adjuster for 30 yrs now and never worked a NE tropical event....but I am seriously looking forward to some of that seafood I've heard sooo much about....but not looking forward to the traffic.....if in fact there is work there....
That's the place. Beautiful plantation style rooms with real wood floors etc.
Aww, someone's mad that they didn't get hit by a hurricane.
And btw the difference between Miami and Ocracoke, NC (on the outer banks) is just 4 degrees longitude. The difference between Miami and New York City is just 6 degrees longitude. Each tiny degree longitude is practically a whole different state on the US East Coast.. Cut them some slack in that regard.
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve
That made my day! Thanks.
09/05/44--5.8 Quake in Massena, NY.
09/15/44--Great Atlantic Hurricane Landfall, Cat3, Long Island.
08/23/11--5.8 Quake in Mineral, VA.
08/28/11--Possible Hurricane Irene Landfall, Cat2, Long Island.
I'm not wish-casting or anything else. It's just an interesting set of events. I'm in awe of nature.
Nothing would make me happier than for Irene to head out to sea. It's already done enough damage. My prayers are with everyone in the Bahamas this evening!
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