Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Blowing up at the wrong time for PR. At least they are getting her early.
The winds will lag the pressure a bit but the sting will be in the right SE quadrant which will have time to get to Cat 1 winds IMO.
Looking at this graphic -- the weather field is huge -- it is almost the size of florida. This is what I was talking about earlier about the size of the storm and the widespread effects.
Hi Kman: is your son back at school? or are you coming over next week?
Just have to wait and see if the numbers and HH hunter obs. make it a Cat1.
A lot of the models are pointing in that direction.
ROOSEVELT ROADS PUERTO RICO, PR, United States
(TJNR) 18-15N 65-38W 10M
Conditions at
2011.08.22 0136 UTC
Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 22 MPH (19 KT) gusting to 43 MPH (37 KT)
Visibility 2 1/2 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Rain
Precipitation last hour 0.14 inches
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Pressure (altimeter) 29.72 in. Hg (1006 hPa)
ob TJNR 220136Z AUTO 04019G37KT 2 1/2SM RA FEW011 BKN019 OVC042 26/ A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 05039/0057 P0014 TSNO
Current Weather Conditions:
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR, United States
(TJSJ) 18-27N 066-00W
Conditions at
2011.08.22 0056 UTC
Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT) gusting to 36 MPH (31 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Precipitation last hour A trace
Temperature 81.0 F (27.2 C)
Dew Point 73.9 F (23.3 C)
Relative Humidity 79%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.81 in. Hg (1009 hPa)
ob TJSJ 220056Z 04020G31KT 10SM BKN018 BKN060 27/23 A2981 RMK AO2 PK WND 03034/0041 RAB17E27 SLP094 P0000 T02720233
yeah...kind of gives you that sinking feeling when Patrap is even posting the runs eh? just makes me want to throw up...guess better now that if/when it hits huh?
SITUATED OVER IRENE.
THE VERTICAL LIFT INDUCED BY THIS ANTICYCLONE SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MON.
--From 8 p.m. NHC Discussion
Stronger storm then the original forecasts -- yesterdays midday blog called for maybe a tropical storm in a day or two. And it was a tropical storm a few hours later -- lol
Finally an explanation for why she has slowed...and more in line with my thinking. I also don't think she's a hurricane...but a very strong TS. Might up winds to 65 or 70 mph before she hits PR.
MARK
17.75N/65.09W
He is back but transferred to a university farther North with a better music program. I will not be back in your neck of the woods until sometime in mid September.
look at dr m blog
purty high imo
its about time to ride it out
Mostly Cloudy and Breezy
81 °F
(27 °C)
Humidity: 79 %
Wind Speed: NE 23 G 36 MPH
Barometer: 29.81"
Dewpoint: 73 °F (23 °C)
Heat Index: 86 °F (30 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi
LOOKS like a Hurricane very shortly!!!!
It does show that there is a potential for RI IF Irene gets her act together.
Only positive thing is that she is so big that it takes time to wind up.
If we had to pick one for Haiti's sake, North of Haiti would be better. If it remained South they would get the bulk of the rain and wind.
In Ponce, they have no rain or wind
In Caguas and Metro area some wind/rain bands 40mph
Hasta el momento esto es una tormenta Platanera...
Espero Que siga asi....
Canes..you think Hurricane Warnings for our part of the world within the next two days?
If Irene goes just North of Hispaniola, the hurricane might become stronger than anticipated, meaning a more northerly track. That would be to the right side of guidance... or Bahama bound. Better safe than sorry.
N of Haiti sounds good
Almost certainly not a hurricane yet, no surface or HH obs to support that. It's getting closer though, intensifying slowly but surely. Still has about 6 hours or so before landfall in PR so there's a good chance of her becoming a hurricane before she crosses the coast.
Viewing: 4801 - 4851
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