Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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This storm is a difficult one for the media, and the forecasters at the NHC.
Agree. There is still hope...LOL
And the above was my reply.
They the HH are on St. Croix. getting slammed.....Not me.
September 12 is a big date for Texas storms...Carla, Ike
It can strengthen as is actually...most critical thing is that a tropical cyclone needs convection over the center to release latent heat (and we have that)...latent heat causes upper-level pressure rise. If the upper-level pressure rise can evacuate somewhere...then the surface pressure falls below and it strengthens...
Indeed...Irene has been evacuating a lot of its upper-level pressure into a large upper low to the northwest (seen by all the high cirrus clouds fanning out on the north side of the storm)...so its got convection at the center and good outflow for strengthening...
...albeit the convection at the center right now is a bit meager...it needs to get more intense convection before it can strengthen faster instead of very gradually....
Interesting,thanks forn the heads up,I hope it dosen't get that strong though
If you insist on using broken applications, don't expect the rest of the world to bend to your whim. YOUtube works perfectly fine with the majority of the world's browsers. Do you complain that you can't get FM stations on your AM radio, and scream that the radio stations should cater to you?
They won't even have to leave the runway to do the next center fix, LOL
September 12 is a big day everywhere for storms
Next "Blog Stretcher" I'm ready to downvote! :-D
KILM is a conservative office, they are use to this since they are threatened almost ever year. They'll start honking the horn Tomorrow night or Tuesday morning if models stay consistent. Horry County (Myrtle Beach) will take 30-40 hours to evacuate being that its still high season for tourists. Ill stay if its a 3 or less, roads just become a cluster around here during evacs do to all the newbie tourons and folks who have moved here in the last 10 or less years a have no clue about hurricane evacs....
denial ain't just a river in Egypt
A couple got close, just ran out of either ideal conditions or hit land. Dr. Masters also mentioned the stable air that has been present thus far in 11 as well in a couple blogs earlier in the week.
Seems Irene will break the streak and be the A.C.E. leader by this time next week.
Reports from there will definitely be interesting over the next few hours.
Better than having a soft core... uh, never mind.
But that dater is also that date that we wind down the Texas season....
P451...(and MississippiWX) you are right...that was a temporary transient feature and not an eye...and P451...you are right about it moving WNW still...the low-level center beneath the high clouds...in this sat loop you posted....you can see is still moving WNW...
just thank heavens, this storm isnt coming during Bike week..LOL..you will never be able to get out
TS Irene Video Update
I had to put dfwstormwatch on ignore. He had a video embedded in his post. Fixed the prob.
SC 9 and SC 22 in Horry county, SC, but 22 bottlenecks with 501 in Aynor, SC
Fortunately, I'll never know since I have them on ignore.
Whoa...its too early to presume a direct strike at or near Miami...why did Reed Timmer post that?
lol, I don't think that member is on the blog anymore..
It would be somewhat ironic if they weren't able to take off due to "bad weather"
Google Chrome dev should be used anyway, it's mostly stable despite the name and does render the blog correctly (the stretching is caused by inner flow (div) being expanded into non rendered areas of the containing div, which is the correct way to render), and any problems should be fixed by the website prohibiting the specification of video width beyond a percentage of the div (hence it shouldn't overflow). If you refuse to update your browser then we shouldn't have to cater to your relatively ancient software.
Regardless, can somebody post a series of images containing the current runs at the point where Irene is supposed to make landfall (or closest to it)?
Thursday Night...Tropical storm conditions possible. Considerable cloudiness with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 80. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday...Tropical storm conditions possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tools/Compatibility View should fix the blog stretch. Enable it, then reload the page.
LOL. More importantly, I wonder where the "PLANFALF" model has Irene going.. GOM? East Coast?
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