Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
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Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
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Of course there is room for error. The margin of error for a 5 day forecast is 200 to 250 miles!! The reason for the shift IMO is the relocation of the center 60NM north of the models initializations. That is why we are seeing this eastward model trend. Also if Irene were to see too much interaction with Hispaniola keeping her weak we could also see a farther westward track. She looks to be steadily intensifying, moving west-northwest, likely to miss the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic, thus my forecast moving just to the east of Florida!!
-2
PR radar, eye wall open to the north
She's probably going to run ashore before she can complete the wall.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
GREG...WHICH IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED LOCATED ABOUT
850 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS
IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF THE TEHUANTEPEC HAVE
FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
THAT PRODUCED TROPICAL STORM HARVEY. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
We went through Bertha and Fran in '96 in Jacksonville ("The Eyes of '96" they called them), almost 3 months apart to the day.
Preparation is THE most important thing you can do. Period.
It's amazing the peace it gives you when the devil's trying to beat the front door in, knowing you've done everything humanly possible to prepare your house for the hit and yourself for the "afterward".
Saved our bacon and the lessons learned helped us get our neighbors ready for Ivan.
Yes please!
your acting like a complete Troll, Dont make me use the spray...
Heartily seconded.
LOL
That's certainly possible.
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IS THAT HARVEY CLINGING ON WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN EDGE BOC?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
Harvey....not much...but could still cling on to tropical depression status for a while longer now....
Harvey is such a pest....GO AWAY ALREADY...LOL
My doggy is scared. Hiding under my chair whilst I blog.
Could we see hurricane Irene before it hits Puerto Rico??
Exactly my thinking. I will be staying in Wilmington regardless what happens, but i WILL be ready. Hope everyone else does the same.... or evacuates. Wherever she goes.
I'm still thinking TS. If it slows down a little more, maybe, but I think that's stretching it. Irene is still in the process of losing the dry air and building the core, which she is doing successfully at the moment. It's going to be close, but a 70mph TS is probably the strongest she'll get before PR.
I wish! I am at work and stuck on IE8...blah!
Well...it formed out of a broad area of low pressure yesterday...with all the convection being biased to the north side of it...and this broad surface center has been spending all this time trying to catch up to the convection on the north side but hasn't been quiet able to yet...
plus there might be some drier air on the west or south sides...
if your uesing IE
then you want firfox
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via Stormcarib
- Is She Gone Yet?
By R Petrillo M Puceta
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 19:21:12 +0000
After another power outage, exactly an hour long again, we decided to run outside and take a look. There is some flooding, a few broken branches, and a couple of newly planted palm trees down, but at least the Frigate Bay/SouthEast Peninsula came through relatively unscathed. We haven't heard anything about how the countryside did, but water was flowing down in rivulets down cliffs and river-like down the roadsides, so I'm sure all the ghauts were in full flow. Winds were a bit high at The Strip (30-35 knots), oddly enough, but the rest of the beaches, whether ocean or sea side, weren't too bad (probably 20 knots or less). Waves on the ocean side from N Friars Bay and west (like Keys Beach) were very high - from 10' and up. It hasn't rained in about 2 hours now, but there will probably be a bit more before the day is done. We took a tour of a portion of the island, so if you want more info (and pics) you can go to my blog and get the details. Looks like we dodged another one. Yes! Renee (www.IslandBabble.blogspot.com)
Ophelia was a Joke
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