Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Do you think the storm track has been due west since St. Kitts?...because if it has been west instead of WNW...maybe the models will drive it through Hispaniola instead of its north coast...keep it weaker...and models will shift their tracks back to the west....
The UKMET is usually pretty good at their predictions.. I wonder why they are so much more west with their path? their modle puts it into the GOM.
Lol...Well, I don't know what else to show you then. Radar clearly shows that there is no eye as well. Convection doesn't even support an eye wall and you have to have an eye wall to have a true eye. It's not happening yet.
I wouldn't be a WU blog post without some people disagreeing on how many degrees north of west a storm is moving. :-} Especially after the eye forms and it wobbles around.
That's what I've been saying....in fact the UKMET is the best performing model for long-range forecasts.
Meanwhile, the WU Satellite showed what looked like a transient eye at 6:19 UTC, 2:19 EDT. However, other bloggers are calling into question the existence of that eye.
Irene does, however, look stronger than Fay when she was at this position in 2008. A veritable rainfall threat is present for Hispanola.
LOL...I have always enjoyed your company...one has to enjoy a truly brilliant smarta$$
You're not going to see a well defined eye wall completely surrounding a center with tropical storm.
Don't expect to see a classis Andrew type eye wall on radar from a tropical storm.
Many also do not understand that Irene has been constantly having her center relocated. They finally got a "Good" fix on it this afternoon... now that the MLC and the LLC have stacked up. All one has to do is look at the loops of radar and satellite and see that due west is a valid argument
And don't bother coming to Georgia. When Floyd was threatening, it took me 12 hours to drive from Savannah to Athens, GA. That's normally a 3.5 hour drive...
74W-76W to I-74W as well
YES it does....Dr. Masters says to watch that model for long range
they did
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 21 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-082
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 22/12Z,18Z A. 23/00Z
B. AFXXX 0409A IRENE B. AFXXX 0509A IRENE
C. 21/1045Z C. 22/1730Z
D. 18.2N 68.2W F. 24,000 TO 33,000 FT
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/18Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 23/00Z,06Z
FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49 B. AFXXX 0709A IRENE
A. 23/00Z C. 22/2315Z
B. NOAA9 0609A IRENE D. 18.2N 70.9W
C. 22/1730Z E. 22/2330Z TO 23/06Z
F. 41,000 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49
A. 23/12Z
B. NOAA9 0809A IRENE
C. 23/0530Z
D. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES, 2 MORE
G-IV MISSIONS, P-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS BEGINNING AT 23/20Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS......NEGATIVE/ JWP
If you look at the IR shortwave loop Irene looks to be moving west but looks like convection is wrapping around the coc now.
The Crow
Because the AB high is bridging west and the high over Texas is running from it slightly...
It looks like an eyewall is developing right now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.htm l
Notice the convection firing up around all sides of the CoC.
Does anyone have the Long Range UKMET model?? just wondering
Yes due west for now
Link
Floyd was terrible here in Wilmington. Some genious finally realized that I-40 both east and west needed to be changed to outgoing traffic, by that time, chaos was pretty much indicated for evacuating residents
I am from Wilmington as well. My roomate works for WECT, and they dont seem to be very concerned yet either... even the weather guys! Thats why Im saying this eastward shift of the models is a big deal. Weve spent all week and weekend focusing on the eastern gulf and western florida (ok, maybe all of florida)... now an entire group of people from georgia to NC need to pay attention. I know many people here will be very surprised as I havent heard a single person mention this storm yet.
Not saying it will come this way, just that people here need to pay attention because right now... they arent
Thanks HA HA LOL. Just can't make out if its going to pass North of PR or not.
Where are you in Houston? I used to work for FOX 26 as a meteorologist and Universal Wx at Hobby
And as I said before, significant warming found by the aircraft recon.
In the end all that matters is that she is headed straight over PR, and then if she follows the GFS/ECMWF/HWRF and stays close to or off the north coast of Hispaniola, it will not be good for folks in the latter part of her path...
I agree..good analysis..Thanks
I'm in Spring but have family down on Galveston Island.
1. Irene's going to joggle north and south
2. Going to change speed eventually
3. Models will continue to change
Indeed, as suspected... was clearly a relic of the dry swath between the N / NW side banding...
I believe we've seen all of the northward consolidation / relocation of the center that's been underway since yesterday... I'm seeing a general N of due west track currently, should scrape right along Puerto Rico's S coast...
I knew the whole center hadn't made it in the radars view yet.
We in Nags Head NC have not heard much either. Gonna get interesting around here...
OMG, DO YOU THINK THAT COULD MEAN DOOM?
Honestly, dude, quit yelling or get poofed...the storm is not striong enough to support an eyewal, hence no eye; ever look at clouds? They change over time and what your seeing is a momentary anomaly, unless this storm has gone through an RI phase no one noted...
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