Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I can say...THAT is an eye!
:P
lets remmber something for her to miss hispaniola she would have to move at an angle of 291 atm she moving roughyl 280 i dont see it going or PR or north of hispaniola on its current heading it'll go through north central hispaniola after it emerges we'll have a clearer picture of were she wants to go all bets r of until she emerges for hispaniola and what kind of shape she is in
From that radar and from that brief eye poppin' there has been a due west track from St. Kitts...if this continues...Irene will more directly to Hispaniola and models will shift back to the left...
Indeed. Webcam St Croix harbour. Not a place to relax, lol
Link
Your belief is wrong. I've never heard anyone call NC a Mid-Atlantic state, and officially (i.e., according to the U.S. Census) it's not. The Mid-Atlantic runs from Virginia to New York.
And, LOL, it's absolutely impossible to read all comments and even come close to staying current on this blog!
;)
This is a dramatic shift in the models the past few days. I realize the past week we've had models point from galveston to cape hatteras...... but the last 3 days has been a big change, and consistently east. It looked like the gulf, specifically the panhandle of FL and tampa, were in the bullseye. Now, its looking like the SE US is. This is important because the storm is less than a week away now, and people here in NC are not only unprepared but for the most part dont even know Irene exists. You guys can poke fun at whoever may be exaggerating right now but the fact is, the gulf and florida were expecting this storm, now a whole new group of people is expecting it... with less days to prepare. I am shocked my area of NC is back in play as it looked VERY unrealistic just 2 days ago when the NWS Wilmington specifically said the pattern just didnt seem possible for our area to be affected.
I understand people may be freaking out or whatever, but if the models hold true and this is a SE US storm, people will need to start acting quickly and seriously in the next 3 days
Personally I wouldn't be worried unless you're in an area that would flood.
Irene is showing off a less elongated core in the 18z Surface Wind Analysis.
Interesting...but the UKMET and GFDL still have a western bias. The nhc is still going to split the difference...as long as these models keep showing this...
that will come back to bite them if Irene heads our way
TVCN has had two consecutive east shifts today, NHC will move their track to that point, just off the FL East coast.
It looks to me like eye is starting to form – and if
that’s the eye, it appears that’s it already at lat
of next forecast point
So is it north of forecast track?
hOUSTON hEIGHTS HERE
I am so glad we got that straightetend out...man that was bothering me!
LOL
I hear ya...this is getting tedious...but just as quickly the models could shift back to the left if Irene continues to go due west such that it directly hits Hispaniola...making it weaker...and hence taking a more southerly/westerly track in the models....
From the looks of the newest steering out, and in conjunction with the new northern coc, I could see Irene going right over P.R. and completely to the north of Haiti/D.R.. Of course, that means less land interaction in the short term, which would lead to a increased possibility of significant dev. If I was anywhere from the North East Fla. coastline right on up to the N.C./VA border, I'd pay close attention in the coming couple days. Like others have said, maybe not a system that's going to plow inland, but one that will be in that area deep enough to give a large portion of the East Coast a pretty good swat.
An inter-island ferry with at least 75 people caught fire then sank amid stormy weather in the central Philippines on Sunday, leaving 3 people dead, one missing while the rest were rescued, officials said. The steel-hulled M/V Island Fastcraft 1 was cruising toward Cebu province when it caught fire during a downpour, prompting several passengers to jump into the churning waters. Three of them drowned. Henry Dungod said he, his wife and two young daughters were watching television with other passengers in a cabin when smoke suddenly wafted from below the ferry, sparking a panic. He and his wife grabbed life jackets and then jumped to the sea, each holding one daughter. “It’s scary, especially when something like this happens and you’re with your family,” Dungod told The Associated Press by telephone, adding he and his loved ones were plucked from the waters by a passing ship after nearly an hour. Most of the passengers were rescued by a passing ship, coast guard officer Fidel Hibaya said. Coast guard chief Admiral Ramon Liwag said one passenger was reported missing. It was not immediately clear what sparked the blaze, but there was a report of an electrical problem in the engine room before the fire. An investigation was under way, Liwag said. The captain apparently ordered passengers and crew to abandon the ship when the fire began to spread, said Hibaya, commander of the coast guard detachment in Tubigon town in Bohol Province where the ferry originated. The dead included the chief mate and two passengers, the coast guard said. Liwag said his personnel alerted ships in the area to help in the rescue, preventing a larger number of casualties. Sea accidents are common in the Philippine archipelago because of frequent storms, badly maintained boats and weak enforcement of safety regulations.
Getting there (St. Croix, Chritiansted Harbour).
RapidScan is a beautiful thing, Doc. No eye.
For 24 hours people keep saying due west and all Irene keeps doing is gaining latitude. I would not call that due west.
Yes, they do.
a weak storm would go more weastward however if that trough deepens it may stil pull in northward,, if u look at the current steering currents the ridge in the ATL has strenthen and push alittle westward today we'll se how it plays out
Definitely a hole in the center and possible eye forming
Viewing: 1701 - 1751
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