Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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yeah, i have juice jugs for that...but the cubed ice does it on its own all night long lol...plus my hub is an electrician...i will be filling the gatorade coolers with it for the guys cuz they will be working non stop if one does hit
Hey ya SJ...sorry, blog is flying
what i got from his video was a push back to the west should -happen this is exactly what he said yesterday -it looks like he has it spot on to me !
As I understand it there are upper level patterns that steer these storms from the top.....although a really powerful storm can make its own way. StormW used these charts to figure out his forecasts, and I believe that they are a essentially a pressure map of a certain level of the atmosphere. Levi32 can talk about this I am sure....
sure dos look like a eye is in fac froming
Landfall or skirt north, or avoid altogether... start the speculation there and it has wide ranging implications for what part of the east coast is threatened.
ask Wednesday morning and you can get a far more meaningful answer...
Hold on folks...that zoomed in image that you posted...man that is OMINOUS...this may be the rapid formation of an eye! (look at the way the clouds are around this new eye.....
Irene...what are you doing?!
Exactly, I know I can't afford to even properly "board up" before a major storm. I'd have to just evacuate my family to the nearest shelter and hope I had a home to come home too. Insurance premiums and high hurricane deductibles are a big concern to me and I'm sure others. My understanding now, or it's in the works is that the insurance companies want to see proof that the homeowner has shelled out in repairs an amount equal to the deductible before they will covere any other repair.n. Catch 22, if this is true. Any FL agents care to clarify or know anything about this.
I did not either. Hugo track took it inland from Charlotte to Tennessee. Something the GFS does not show. More of a hard swipe and that coast and north it goes.
but Charleston is right on sea level. Storm surge can crush the city off the map. I'm from Charleston and I know it will have major problems with Category 4.
it is better to be hit by the eye actually...NE quad of hurricane is worse...if Chas is hit by eye then we dont get the worst of it...that saved us during hugo actually but not saying i want a hit...just saying would rather be on the eye end than the eye hitting 30-60 miles south of us
Totally different situation than we had with Earl. The trof is going to lift out too quickly and the high build back in too fast for this to go out to sea. If I lived in GA/SC/NC, I would be making preparations now, and not waiting until I had a hurricane watch or warning. By that time, everyone knows and it's chaotic.
80 miles off shore on the west side is squalls to TS strength... nothing much
Howdy, BTW.
Sure does... very close.
Good luck with it man. I know what it is like to deal with storm issues with kids. Keeping them properly fed, hydrated and cool. At least since you are a camper, you have equipment to cook without power. I camp and backpack so I also enjoy that advantage. Bad thing is my home floods so evac is often necessary.
Hoping the best for you east coast guys.
hey ya press! just got back from Edisto...camped all weekend...it was nice...but think i will be here lots over the next few days...
Here is a link to that radar:
Link
Wow.
Another "eye" POV on Visible GOES-13 Rapid Scan. Very cool.
Takes a a minute to load by the way.
May be a pocket of dry air.
Its an eye..
So Thursday is a great time for me to have scheduled meetings down there? :)
The only thing I am sure of is where the storm has been, is now, and I am pretty certain of where she'll be in the next 24-48 hours....but that's about it.
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