Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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No! The risks to the SE Coast has gone up, but has not put that side out of risk yet. Follow the NHC for official Info. Always the best source of Information on tropical weather.
+1 90% of people on this chat i would not trust only person I trust is Dr. Masters.
exactly what I said last night, she's getting north of the islands, gang way east coast!!
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-DEFINED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE STORM
STILL LACKS MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...OR STRONG WINDS...OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 53 KT SO FAR...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 45
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OVER WARM WATERS...INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY AND IRENE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES HISPANIOLA.
AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO MORE THAN THE
USUAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...AS IT DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW IRENE
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER MOVES MORE OVER
THE WATER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IRENE WILL
LIKELY BECOME STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE.
THE STORM IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/17...BY THE FLOW
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST
TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT
DAYS 4 TO 5. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES IRENE TO THE WEST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TAKES IT THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN FLORIDA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES
IN LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 18.9N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1200Z 19.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/1200Z 24.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 27.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
looks like yet another center wants to show up
Location: 17.0°N 63.2°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
good rule to follow...
INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 18.9N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1200Z 19.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/1200Z 24.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 27.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
I wasn't aware that they postpone the mission to tomorrow.
Sorry Puerto Ricans.
IMHO:
Irene is just one blow up from hurricane status and that could come at any time with very strong odds that it will happen in next 24 hours.
It would take a lot to keep Irene south of Puerto Rico at this point, and a hurricane warning should be posted.
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES HISPANIOLA.
Haiti dont need this at all
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 14:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 14:00:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°55'N 62°48'W (16.9167N 62.8W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 27 miles (43 km) to the S (190°) from Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,472m (4,829ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 53kts (From the ESE at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:34:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
20NM L/V CENTER ELONGATED NE TO SW
that's tonight at 8pm, I don't think they postponed it
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES
IN LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS.
LOL
They are telling us not to argue about where it is going....
Yeah, because that makes everyone else feel soooo much better.
LOL.
were I not recently humbled...I'd be raisin' hell about this...
That certainly seems to be the case...We have seen many a system destroyed by those mountains.
lol.
URNT12 KNHC 211426
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 21/14:00:00Z
B. 16 deg 55 min N
062 deg 48 min W
C. 850 mb 1472 m
D. 46 kt
E. 046 deg 42 nm
F. 123 deg 53 kt
G. 046 deg 80 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 15 C / 1523 m
J. 17 C / 1524 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 13:34:30Z
20NM L/V CENTER ELONGATED NE TO SW
;
Still hoping the current tropical storm streak goes on.
Hurricane warning just posted for PR!
Small shift to the left on the later part.
Per 11 am discussion....
"...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES IRENE TO THE WEST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TAKES IT THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS..."
scenario you propose track-wise is something like what the HWRF model shows track-wise....
Oh damn, I just made a Katrina comparison. Sorry blog. I won't let that happen again.
Seek him press.
How is that dare devil boy of yours.
I agree but it seems to be mixing out. also St Kitts measured a 1002 mb press and hour ago as the coc passed over them
Viewing: 101 - 151
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