Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The pressure drop is more related to the HH investigating the wrong area.
Let's see if it remain consistent with last run or ???
South Florida will be in a mess, thousands of forelosed houses with no shutters, the banks wont send anyone out to board them up, windows will go and roofs will fly off, banks will lose millions and tax payers will have to give the banks another 800 billion to stay in business. All those poor people who had to sell thier shutters for scrap metal to survive. I mean anything could happen, it could get into the warm waters of the bahamas and crank up like andrew did, could you imagine? South Florida has the worst unemployment and economy in the country, might create a bunch of work. Hope no one dies and god bless.
You're right. The banks can even keep up with the lawns, pools and other areas of foreclosed homes now, much less what shape they would be in after a bad ts. Great Point.
Continuous Winds TIME
(AST) WDIR WSPD
12:50 pm WNW ( 301 deg ) 3.3 m/s
12:40 pm NW ( 315 deg ) 2.0 m/s
12:30 pm WNW ( 295 deg ) 3.0 m/s
12:20 pm SW ( 215 deg ) 5.1 m/s
12:10 pm SW ( 223 deg ) 4.7 m/s
12:00 pm WSW ( 245 deg ) 3.6 m/s
the puerto rican party is still in full effect
000
FXUS62 KILM 211738
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
138 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH AND A FEW APPROACHING DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MEANWHILE
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
SUSTAINING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD
INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
IRENE COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
That makes sense...that might be why winds haven't ramped up significantly despite a low pressure at 999 mb...
And 999 mb and 50 mph winds exercise this is still a broad circulation.....
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2011 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 17:08:00 N Lon : 63:47:36 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 999.0mb/ 47.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.8 2.8
Center Temp : -38.9C Cloud Region Temp : -47.0C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.64 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 18:07:47 N Lon: 62:59:24 W
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.8 degrees
************************************************* ***
IDK...just the fact that Dr. M mentioned GA, SC and NC has my stomach doing flip flops...thinking i will hit the store tomorrow for a few extra canned things just in case...and gonna work on the ice from the ice maker and empty it every chance i get into bags just in case...not liking this...seriously gonna be critter watching the next few days
WHOA....that is a tad eye-ish...but what if its a coincidence with the random crumpled clouds at the broad center?
Da 'cone' did! Same for Charlie...
I think at best a strong TS before PR. Still Irene could do quite a bit of damage there.
O_o
It has been the most consistent series of model runs from the star, I've ever seen. But it very well could start a move back west again, in next few runs, but I tend to think it will stay eastward. By Tuesday or Weds of next week, it will be the 3 cone of terror and it's pretty accurate.
Many times yes. They typically start out heading for N Fl, to S SC; and then end up in Wilmington to the OBX.
Hiya Tigger.
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Been lurking for the past month and it appears we may very well have our first hurricane of the season..
but it is also possible that we might not. It very well depends on its track. The more land interactions it has the less likely for a hurricane. with that said. To answer the question why would the Ukmet have it so far west might be because if it interacts with land it might keep weak or weaken it so it feels less of the weakness caused by the trough digging in. IMO. only time will tell.
The upper level steering is the key and that is where the NHC rocks.....to read the cards you have to look at the charts that deal with that part of the atmosphere.
?
With those latter two, yes the track continued to shift east with each run. There was speculation toward the end that NC might even avoid a hit.
Pretty realistic track.
True dat.
OK...she's starting to convince me she is getting a bit better organized in the last few frames (slow strengthening)...but still waiting for some dramatic convective burst or banding type eye at the center before I see this being a significant intensification event....
Nope. I don't think that is going to happen.
Viewing: 1401 - 1451
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