Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:38 PM GMT en Agosto 21, 2011

+48

Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.

Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.

Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.

Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.

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Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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7551. Skyepony (Mod) 1:23 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Comparing model error for Irene so far.. CMC I'd say is leading, HWRF, GFDL, TVCN & European follow.. Average Position Error (in nautical miles) Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr AEMN 40.0 94.1 104.7 113.3 60.4 AVNO 39.4 114.0 99.0 106.3 79.0 BAMD - 113.9 185.5 236.2 234.3 BAMM - 106.4 144.9 106.4 148.6 BAMS - 109.2 128.6 76.2 212.8 CMC 40.7 39.8 - - - EGRR 25.8 86.7 - - - GFDL 15.8 80.8 - - - GFDN 8.3 105.7 - - - HWRF 10.2 76.1 134.5 162.5 - LBAR 0 108.8 176.6 227.7 346.9 LGEM 0 104.6 136.3 106.4 148.6 NAM 20.4 149.1 - - - NGPS 50.3 86.9 80.2 90.2 - OFCL 0 77.9 - - - TVCN 0 67.3 77.1 104.6 - XTRP 0 134.6 267.1 435.2 637.7 Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29293

7552. presslord 1:24 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting Chucktown: Further east x 2 Link Link Just the man I want to see!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

7553. JonClaw 1:24 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Looking at the 9AM 5-day track, it looks as though Irene would have to make a jump southwest to pass through the NHC's next forecast point. Member Since: Junio 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 32

7554. yesterway 1:24 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting interstatelover7165: 000 FONT14 KNHC 220859 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 3 4 4 7 12 TROP DEPRESSION 4 1 7 4 5 8 3 TROPICAL STORM 32 44 47 41 37 35 32 HURRICANE 64 55 43 51 53 50 53 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 59 46 35 36 36 32 32 HUR CAT 2 4 7 6 10 13 12 15 HUR CAT 3 1 2 2 4 4 5 6 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 85KT 95KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 30(39) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 25(45) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 21(44) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 17(48) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 17(48) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 12(52) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 37(47) 8(55) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 5(51) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 3(30) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 6(32) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 9(32) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 37(57) 5(62) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 3(26) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 20(68) X(68) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) X(32) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 12(68) X(68) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) X(32) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 49(70) 3(73) X(73) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 2(36) X(36) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 33(55) 1(56) X(56) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X 6( 6) 27(33) 29(62) 5(67) 1(68) X(68) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 3 33(36) 29(65) 3(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) GRAND TURK 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 3(26) X(26) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 20(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 4 83(87) 4(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) PUERTO PLATA 50 1 39(40) 9(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) PUERTO PLATA 64 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 23 40(63) 1(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SANTO DOMINGO 50 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONCE 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN 50 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART Can you give us the long version next time? Member Since: Octubre 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 361

7555. interstatelover7165 1:24 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
000 WTNT54 KNHC 221159 TCEAT4 HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 800 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011 AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS ESTIMATED BY FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------------------------- - LOCATION...18.9N 67.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES $$ FORECASTER AVILA Member Since: Agosto 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871

7556. aussiecold 1:25 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting yesterway: The point here is not insurance it's how to deal with a dangerous storm coming to town. but you just "suggested" ..." shut the door and go to any hotel out of town "!!! Member Since: Agosto 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 134

7557. interstatelover7165 1:25 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting yesterway: Can you give us the long version next time? That IS the long version. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871

7558. MahFL 1:25 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting MahFL: Right now, roughly 60 miles to the sw side. The info is in the forcast advisory. In 3 days time forcast to be 75 miles. Now its changed to 3 days time 140 miles on the NW side. Member Since: Junio 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2427

7559. fldude99 1:25 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
In the words of the NYC cop at the sene: move along folks...nothing to see here. Irene is appeared destined to disturb some fish Member Since: Julio 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 560

7560. sunlinepr 1:26 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

7561. ncstorm 1:26 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
anxiously awaiting Dr. Masters discussion..always interesting to hear his point of view on the storms Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

7563. naplesdreamer28 1:27 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Can someone explain to me why on all the computer models the GFDL and UKMET seems to stay so far West compared to the others? I saw this mornings GFDL and it just loves that Westerly track. Member Since: Julio 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 242

7564. overwash12 1:27 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting yesterway: That is one unique name. "Overwash"...I like it. I made it up after seeing all the newscasters on the outerbanks reporting on overwash on hwy 12. Thanks! Member Since: Junio 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1049

7565. MoltenIce 1:27 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting fldude99: In the words of the NYC cop at the sene: move along folks...nothing to see here. Irene is appeared destined to disturb some fish I wouldn't classify as a fish as it just made landfall in PR... There are people in PR right? Are you that certain it will completely avoid land? Most of the models suggest some form an impact on the East Coast. Member Since: Agosto 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 552

7566. RickWPB 1:27 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Looks like the trough is digging down pretty far south from this water vapor sat loop: Link Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 297

7567. chsstormgirl 1:27 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Chucktown - thoughts on this for those of us in Chucktown? Member Since: Septiembre 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118

7568. Buhdog 1:28 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Stormchaser....excellent illustration on Jeanne and potential track changes when dealing with a a moving front! I wonder how big irene will get once she establishes a southern half? Most crystal blue morning we have had in SWFL in a long time today. Member Since: Julio 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 950

7569. naplesdreamer28 1:28 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting RickWPB: Looks like the trough is digging down pretty far south from this water vapor sat loop: Link What does this mean in terms of track, if anything? Member Since: Julio 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 242

7570. presslord 1:28 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
yea Chucktown...cough it up... Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

7571. yesterway 1:29 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting aussiecold: but you just "suggested" ..." shut the door and go to any hotel out of town "!!! What is it you are having a problem with? Why would anyone want to sit in their home with no electricity in the dark in 90 degree heat with a hurricane passing over head. Go to a motel where you can relax, be safe and watch from the sidelines. Get my point? Member Since: Octubre 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 361

7572. weatherguy03 1:30 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting naplesdreamer28: What does this mean in terms of track, if anything? That is the first shortwave, but that one will lift out. The next one is over Iowa. Member Since: Julio 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

7573. yesterway 1:31 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting overwash12: I made it up after seeing all the newscasters on the outerbanks reporting on overwash on hwy 12. Thanks! Hahahaha very interesting! I love it! Member Since: Octubre 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 361

7574. Jedkins01 1:31 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Its starting to look more and moor like Irene won't even scratch Florida. The models that shifted slightly west overnight have come back even farther east than they ever were. Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

7575. RickWPB 1:31 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting naplesdreamer28: What does this mean in terms of track, if anything? If the trough digs far enough south... and Irene is strong enough, should help turn it to the NW... then NNW and hopefully NNE or NE. As been said before, it's a timing issue / strength of storm issue. Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 297

7577. hydrus 1:31 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting BoroDad17: I have to say the last few satellite frames the motion looks much further to the W again, as opposed to the more NW movement overnight. Irene will wobble, jog and make odd movments when it is near land and in its formative stages. When she fine tunes the CDO, her track should smooth out..jmo Member Since: Septiembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14281

7578. yesterway 1:32 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01: Its starting to look more and moor like Irene won't even scratch Florida. The models that shifted slightly west overnight have come back even farther east than they ever were. Cheers my good man... Member Since: Octubre 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 361

7579. aussiecold 1:32 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting presslord: all tenants should have insurance press .,,,,you know that out there are living hundreds of thousands of people in mobil homes,and insurances co.s dont wnt to deal with Member Since: Agosto 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 134

7580. lennit 1:32 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
after going back 100 yrs closes analog track both occured in 1928 , both hitting Florida .. i cannot find any other near Irene's location and movement Member Since: Octubre 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

7581. StormHype 1:33 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Everyone currently within the NHC cone needs to keep their guard up with this system. I want to remind everyone of just how quickly a five day track can change under similar synoptic scenarios as we have with Irene. Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 track while in the same position that Irene finds herself this morning- By a day later, the NHC is showing a South Carolina landfall- Models begin to indicate that the first trof will pull northward too quickly and leave Jeanne being pushed west again by a building high. By later that same day, the NHC comes to this conclusion. I think we all know what the track ends up doing... I am in no way forecasting this to happen with Irene, but I am just reminding everyone that these tracks are nowhere near being set in stone. In fact, in Jeanne's case, the NHC was basically following the model consensus the entire time; the models remained in fairly good agreement throughout the duration of the storm while wildly flopping back and forth. Thanks. This is the best post of the last 3 days. You can't ignore the GFDL. It smells something and won't let go of it. Member Since: Mayo 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163

7582. WINDSMURF 1:33 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
I believe that with this storm timimg is everything. Since Irene did not suffer during land interaction, she did not loose any steam. Notice that her forward speed is relatively fast and has not slowed down much while crossing Puerto Rico. Her forward speed and lack of interaction with land may cause her to make that northerly turn further to the west than expected. I am not wishcasting but it would be foolish for us to think that South Florida is in the clear. There is a local guy on nbc channel 6 his name is John Morales who hinted this scenario last night and For right now I believe that this is a possibility. Again, it is too early to tell but all we can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 158

7583. overwash12 1:34 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane: She could be contracting her TS wind field a bit, explaining the slight rise in pressure. Radar also suggests she's trying to reconsolidate the eye wall. Hi Cat5,where is Irene going? Your thoughts please! Member Since: Junio 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1049

7584. MississippiWx 1:34 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01: Its starting to look more and moor like Irene won't even scratch Florida. The models that shifted slightly west overnight have come back even farther east than they ever were. And it will cause drying winds over Florida for months, which you will never be able to recover from, right? :-) Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8550

7585. presslord 1:35 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
timing is everything with every storm Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

7586. yesterway 1:35 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx: And it will cause drying winds over Florida for months, which you will never be able to recover from, right? :-) Ahh drying winds again. Where's my parasail? Member Since: Octubre 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 361

7587. oceanblues32 1:36 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Everyone currently within the NHC cone needs to keep their guard up with this system. I want to remind everyone of just how quickly a five day track can change under similar synoptic scenarios as we have with Irene. Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 track while in the same position that Irene finds herself this morning- By a day later, the NHC is showing a South Carolina landfall- Models begin to indicate that the first trof will pull northward too quickly and leave Jeanne being pushed west again by a building high. By later that same day, the NHC comes to this conclusion. I think we all know what the track ends up doing... I am in no way forecasting this to happen with Irene, but I am just reminding everyone that these tracks are nowhere near being set in stone. In fact, in Jeanne's case, the NHC was basically following the model consensus the entire time; the models remained in fairly good agreement throughout the duration of the storm while wildly flopping back and forth.i remember this storm well... My apartment complex did not even have our electric back on from frances nd we had one v in the neighborhood that we had hooked up with a long heavy duty extension cord to a house on the next block and they were talking bout jeanne and then lo and behold the electric goes on a few days later...... then jeanne made aa loop and came back around and we were earmarked one more time... lost electric 13 days with frances had it back on for less than a week and lost it for another 11 with jeanne!!!! Member Since: Noviembre 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207

7589. StormHype 1:36 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting MississippiWx: And it will cause drying winds over Florida for months, which you will never be able to recover from, right? :-) LMAO... I remember that one too. Member Since: Mayo 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163

7590. sunlinepr 1:37 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Waiting for Levi's analysis... Trof in Conus into the Gom will pick her up? Where is the weakness where she will move to? Member Since: Agosto 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

7591. hydrus 1:38 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting presslord: timing is everything with every storm Yes indeed. One small detail in thr steering pattern or a quick change in the sheer upstairs can make a big difference in lives and property loss.. Member Since: Septiembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14281

7592. yesterway 1:38 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting cloudburst2011: You quoted the wrong guy :-) Member Since: Octubre 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 361

7593. marknmelb 1:39 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
I'm still liking a David '79 track. Right up the coast of Florida. Only a stronger storm than David was at land fall. Strong Cat 2 low Cat 3. Just a gut feeling looking at everything. Member Since: Julio 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 391

7594. scott39 1:39 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting weatherguy03: Hurricane Irene Morning Update Aug. 22nd., 2011 Good video Bob Thanks, What are your thoughts on Irene somewhat creating her own enviroment as a major hurricane in relation to making the ridge stronger? Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

7595. nrtiwlnvragn 1:40 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion Excerpt: ALTHOUGH INTERACTIONS WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IRENE SHOULD ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG A PARABOLIC TRACK. THE GUIDANCE /IN THIS CASE THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ HAS BEEN PRONE TO SENDING SYSTEMS TRACKING NEAR THE EAST COAST INLAND INTO THE NORTHEAST THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS DUE TO PREMATURE PHASING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH HAS NOT VERIFIED SINCE HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003...SO LITTLE WEIGHT WAS PLACED UPON THEIR SOLUTIONS. PER THE NHC TRACK FORECAST...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS SHOULD INITIALLY FORM ALONG A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED BY A FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE WESTERLIES. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST JUST INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK NEXT MONDAY. Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8923

7596. WeatherMSK 1:40 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
It is important to realize that a stronger system will feel weaknesses more. In this case with Irene a more northerly track would be likely. Irene being mainly north of the islands is why there has been a shift to the east with models. I can definitely see Irene becoming a major. Member Since: Febrero 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 465

7597. Jedkins01 1:40 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Everyone currently within the NHC cone needs to keep their guard up with this system. I want to remind everyone of just how quickly a five day track can change under similar synoptic scenarios as we have with Irene. Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 track while in the same position that Irene finds herself this morning- By a day later, the NHC is showing a South Carolina landfall- Models begin to indicate that the first trof will pull northward too quickly and leave Jeanne being pushed west again by a building high. By later that same day, the NHC comes to this conclusion. I think we all know what the track ends up doing... I am in no way forecasting this to happen with Irene, but I am just reminding everyone that these tracks are nowhere near being set in stone. In fact, in Jeanne's case, the NHC was basically following the model consensus the entire time; the models remained in fairly good agreement throughout the duration of the storm while wildly flopping back and forth. But there's pretty much no way Irene will be like Jeanne, in fact, the hurricane is already taking a more northerly direction than forecast. I wouldn't be surprised if Irene doesn't even come anywhere close to making landfall in Florida. Member Since: Agosto 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

7599. HurricaneDevo 1:40 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Recon headed back towards the center. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/scripts/path.cg i?lat=18.067c18.083c18.100c18.133c18.150c18.167c18 .200c18.217c18.233c18.250c18.283c18.300c18.317c18. 333c18.367c18.383c18.400c18.433c18.450c18.467&lon= -68.250c-68.233c-68.217c-68.200c-68.167c-68.150c-6 8.133c-68.117c-68.100c-68.083c-68.050c-68.033c-68. 017c-68.000c-67.983c-67.967c-67.933c-67.917c-67.90 0c-67.883 Member Since: Abril 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 116

7600. reedzone 1:40 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
I still believe Irene will go up the Coast of Florida and hit Georgia or South Carolina. I agree with the NHC track. Member Since: Julio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

7601. Orcasystems 1:41 PM GMT en Agosto 22, 2011
Complete Update TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: Octubre 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

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