Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Is possible specially if it shifts further offshore (away from the islands) eroding the W periphery of the Bermuda High more than expected, which could buy it enough time to recurve before the High builds back up.
I only ask since there is only 6% chance of a Cat. 3, yet, they have have the winds at 110mph. Seems like the actual chances should be higher if it only takes 1mph to make it a cat. 3.
Not going to happen...
Glad U OK!!
It should actually get smaller as the TROF/weakness departs in a day or so. Which is why models bring it closer to the US coastlines.
Friday: Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
They have both shifted a bit east of where they were for several days. Having said that though, they are still the outliers.
Hmm... you know, I believe IKE was did that (it was a rather intense HURR while in the ATL).
depends on her speed too.
Regrettably my concern as well. This far out a guess, but Myrtle Beach area landfall, followed by a trip up the coast would dump heavy rain on already saturated ground. Have properties on NJ shore and in Philly area. More concerned about Philly since we've had record rains this month, near 13 inches. Any rain along with tropical force gusts will send trees down. Same thing happened with Floyd where we recd 8" rain, 40 mile gusts resulting in a massive tree falling on our house. Would not care to see a repeat of that, but suspect conditions plausible for it to happen with Irene.
They're quite persistent at it.
Indeed... out running the building High.
Won't be surprised that it goes out to sea like NGP.
this is what my money is on... NC, maybe Cape hatteras. gonna be a monster storm but its more and more North and East of forecast points. too late for the Bahamas though
And when should people here in Wilmington, NC start taking this thing seriously? (not as far as following the storm, but getting ready for it?)
Off to class; see y'all later. Got to go learn me how to fix some radars...Well, I think we'll start with basic electronics until next term.
XTRAP
haha
Everyone should be taking this seriously. Not waiting until a hurricane watch is issued.
Everyone from FL, GA, SC and NC need to be prepared. All four states are possible here.
this looks like another emily track, just east of florida..coincidence..hmmm more like current storm pattern.
For this year... good question.
NHC issues watches 36-48 hrs before, and warnings 24 hours before. When you're in the 3 day cone you should be starting final preps..
LOL
Think I will stay up late tonight to see the 00Z that should have the data from this afternoon's high altitude flight. If a model windshield wipe is coming, that would be the first to indicate it.
There's 2. You can see #1 over the NE US on WV imagery of the Eastern United States.
The path is shifted a bit further east and the hurricane is now forecasted to go to cat 4 before making landfall in the Carolinas, cutting to the mouth of the Chesapeake, the striking New England as the first hurricane to make landfall there since Bob in 1991. ---from Bastardi....
I was meaning to ask you about that... based on your statement I take last night we didn't have any G-IV flights?
Rakes SC/NC and also appears to slow forward motion which is never good.
Interesting only bc I still feel no level of threat whatsoever in Wilmington! Not me, but the general public seems very disconcerned, or unknowing. I realize this may be due to our location being further north and Irene taking longer to get here....
but if she doesnt cross Hispanolia I see nothing stopping her from gaining strength and am worried we could quickly have a major hurricane coming our way. Guess we'll find out the next couple days, but people here seem to still be in "watch and wait" mode... if theyve even heard about Irene
The official cone has that possibilty as an outlier for now
No flight last night, first one this afternoon.
WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...
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