Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Transformers. Stay safe!
The 4 short line-segments represent TropicalStormIrene's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Irene's travel-speed was 10.5mph(16.9k/h) on a heading of 289.4degrees(WNW)
TS.Irene was headed toward passage over LasGalleras,DominicanRepublic ~20&1/2 hours from now
Copy&paste pic, 16.0n60.4w-16.8n62.4w, 16.8n62.4w-17.5n63.7w, 17.5n63.7w-17.9n65.0w, 17.9n65.0w-18.2n65.9w, huc, 17.9n65.0w-19.26n69.20w, eps into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping (for 22August_12amGMT)
Storms can often move erratically while over land especially mountainous land, you should get a truer motion once it exits back over the ocean...
I have an image from 07:13 UTC, so probably not (yet).
Link
Looks like the center is about to come off (then it's bedtime for me)... looks to be elongating slightly SW-NE?
Someone look at this graphic. At the end of the loop is that just dry air getting inside? Or an eye.
I actually think that could be our center reforming, or our mid level circulation present and just waiting for the surface center to reunite with it over the next few hours, because the whole convective cloud pattern on IR suggests this is the potential center.
Thanks! Then I guess that means her center will be back out over the water in another hour or two.
We've seen this sort of thing before.
Just dry air from the effects of crossing land. Her center is 10 miles SE of the San Juan radar site.
latest radar imagery suggests otherwise, that the surface center is reforming to the northwest. And that this is not just a dry spot. Convection on her eastern side is suggesting that her COC is where that clear spot is currently. Radar shows banding beginning to take shape where this old center used to be.
Is there a way to tell the difference? In the end of that loop it looks really round shaped as well
Hugo came in at a different angle once it hit PR it moved nnw then nw right into Charleston. Storms that come from the south due north always hook and miss us plus on the west side of the circulation we get nothing from it cept maybe floyd and that is cuz the wind field was so big. Bertha passed within 100 miles of Charleston and it was sunny at times that day.
First of all, if the circulation is strong enough, it WOULD be completely disastrous if it were completely over populated land. But that aside, what I meant was disastrous in the context of maintaining a circulation, as I was in physics discussion mode. A poor choice of words, I'll admit.
And thanks to all (particulary dawnawakening) that have been so helpful in providing detailed information regarding land interaction, particularly in the context of what Irene is doing this very moment. Keep it up!
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 18:31:58 N Lon : 66:04:45 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 990.1mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.9 5.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km
Center Temp : -19.4C Cloud Region Temp : -63.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.0 degrees
Barometric pressure at Carolina down to 992 mb, still N-erly winds suggesting the center has not made it N of there to the coastline.
Did everyone who is saying it's dry air look at this?
I see Irene has now made landfall in PR as a strong tropical storm and looks like it could be near re-entry into the Atlantic and back over water.
Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti will all experience heavy rainfall totals over the next couple of days (12-36hr QPF. 24-48hr QPF).
The big story, however, is that Irene continues to track further north/east/right of the forecasted track. This has mostly been due to center re-locations, however, that is not the case tonight. Regardless, the model consensus has once again shifted east/right (compare 0z consensus to 6z consensus). Furthermore, the 0z ECMWF and GFS global models support this trend. Such a track currently puts the Carolinas at greater risk than Florida, as well as far less land interaction with Hispaniola. Additionally, since Irene (based off radar) appears to be spending less time over PR than expected, and Hispaniola's north east side is actually not very mountainous, the core and surface circulation will not suffer nearly as much as forecasted.
The upper level environment (upper level anticyclone, light shear, good divergence) and ocean (SSTs and TCHP) are both favorable for continue intensification. The only issue is land, and the time it will take afterwards for Irene to reorganize herself. Intensity in the long run (days 3-7) will depend on how Irene is looking after passing PR and Hispaniola, however, given the current model trends and the radar observations, a major hurricane is looking quite likely...
The SE US states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, as well as the mid-Atlantic states need to begin preparing now. Especially given the tight model consensus (not the same thing as the model track consensus trending in certain directions) which favors a gradual curve northward through a weakness (NOT a recurve out to sea). Of course, for now, PR and Hispaniola are the main areas of concern. Winds shouldn't be too much of an issue, but rainfall certainly will.
Stay safe out there
Very informative summary. Thanks...
thanks i knew i wasnt going krazzzzzzzzzzzy
whats rthis mean
Scene Type : EYE
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxlo op.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
And looking at that image ^^ it is just a dry spot...
This is very true
The ADT estimates are always a little off while a system is inland.
How is it that you are able to be online?
Incorrect. Right now calm is being felt from Guaynabo to parts of Toa Baja (like where I live). The COC must be west of San Juan in this case and hasn't yet gotten to the shore. Perhaps the north part of the COC has actually come off shore but the rest is over land. Should exit near Dorado.
I think you are sort of contraditing yourself in a way LOL... What he is saying is, it is disastrous for Puerto Rico
Sorry for the flood, I am just reposting from reports online so we have a good idea where the actual COC is.
Yeah, I know, but if this trend continues, rapid intensification is possible. According to SHIPS,
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
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