Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Have you ever flown over South Florida? It's pretty much water with a little land mixed in and flat as can be without being below sea level. Not a whole lot to do much disruption. I believe Katrina did well over South Florida.
Um, I agrees with you. Went from Tropical Storm to almost 200 MPH Category 5 in only a day or two. Officially, it's 185 MPH storm... but 200 mph winds may have occurred during this storm. Nasty one...
Tampa has the shield... :-)
Puerto Rico is not mountainous enough to tear her apart, but it will change her course in ways that the models cannot predict.
Looks like the COC is over El Yunque right now...about to head into San Juan.
Concur
Yes we do and it works well ... :-p
I'm in N. Ft. Myers...payin' attention!
Sort of like the Cubs do in baseball against the big one?
you might do better not sleeping. Catch up tomorrow...
Read Jay Barnes' Florida Hurricane History about it and also "Storm Of The Century" which also covers other things happening around the storm. Incredible stories and reports from that storm. It's been said there may have been gusts to 250 mph in that storm but generally it's usually said to have had 200+ mph winds.
There's a matter on which I'm pretty curious, though. To what extent does a tropical cyclone sense the delineation between land and water? One always hears about how a cyclone has to be "over water" in order to maintain strength or intensify, but is the storm really taking energy directly from the top sea surface layer? To me, it would make more physical sense for the surface winds to extract moisture from the sea surface, which then rises as the winds swirl into the core to produce the storms energy; if this is the case, I would think that the delineation would be rather fuzzy. Thoughts are appreciated!
Looks like it'll head right over the Luis Munoz Marin International Airport.
The extreme southern tips, the 10,000 islands area and everglades is mostly water but the rest of the peninsula isn't mostly water. Florida will certainly disrupt storms.
I've been there. It's ALWAYS better to get a little bit of sleep, than none at all. At the very least just lay down. I know a landfalling storm is interesting but Irene will still be here when you get up!
Kind of looks like a yin-yang symbol, doesn't it!?
Once she remerges into the Atlantic Ocean, she should reintensify again. Once east of the Bahamas or over the Bahamas she could intensify into a category three or stronger hurricane admist an indeal atmospheric and oceanic environment where SSTs and their depths are favorable for intensificaton along with the associated upper level anticyclone she has developed for herself will allow intensification throughout her life cycle as a tropical cyclone. The main impediment remains dry air entrainment and possible decoupling of the mid and surface low centers. If this occurs are dry air becomes an issue again this will likely hamper Irene throughout her travels over the open Atlantic and halt any tries at a rapid intensification cycle, and once her core gets it together potential EMRCs will impede development as she gathers her two centers.
However if she maintains an adequate core and the centers of circulation do not decouple, chances are two or three periods of rapid intensification could take place as well as one potential EWRC period and this will allow maximum potential intensity as she makes landfall along the East Coast. THe inner core circulation problems that Hurricane Earl of 2010 had to deal with kept him from reaching category five intensities as he had one shot at a complete EWRC before reintensification could take place, but once this happened he had increasing wind shear to deal with as he raced northward up the east coast. Anyone from Cape Cod, MA southwestward towards Miami, FL have to watch this cyclone intently as any short term deviations now could have significant intensity and track implications as I have mentioned above. With every northward wobble could put more residents north of Miami, FL at potential risk for a more potential monster.
thank you
School?
Ouch.
Euro has really locked onto a solution just east of Florida. Not good for GA/SC/NC.
I have to wonder how much of that is due to observational failures. Not saying that's what it is, but I have a strong skepticism of any tropical cyclone data recorded before satellites, and even more so of data collected before the 40s (when real storm reconnaissance began).
O_o
why are they in a black hole?
Blowing nice 40knts
Hill at bayamon!
No lights
Course I was disappointed when my power went out like a few minutes after landfall and I had nothing to do but listen to the wind rock my trailer next to Lake Livingston. I still slept some though, after I opened a window a little to let the wind cool the place down. It was the night after that was miserable, no AC and it was sweltering hot.
Viewing: 6451 - 6501
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