Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yeah, while the NAM isn't a tropical model, it's still pretty decent at diagnosing the upper level features across North America/Western Atlantic. It's still probably out to lunch, but we'll see if the GFS follows suit.
The NAM also has Irene going south of Hispaniola, which seems unlikely at this point.
yep not only no M, not even a cat 2... just saying, and though not wishcasting(laying out the facts), you should at least see a cat. 2 at landfall... up a category maybe...
Now that's a true Mississippian for ya. LOL.
The 12z run earlier today was similar as well. Very intriguing.
Yes I don't use the NAM for tracking but it can be useful for showing the upper atmospheric set up's. Will be interesting to see if that run has any effect on the rest of the 00Z models.
i think i would want too deal with a stronger hurricane for the U.S then haveing it hiting Hispaniola, wish they dont need
not wishing a storm on any one or DOOM just saying
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zo ommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.2869565217391 3044&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=SJU&type=TZL&lat=0 &lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=387&map.y=253. 5¢erx=400¢ery=240&lightning=0&smooth=0&sho wlabels=1&rainsnow=0
Lower resolution
don't focus on the line -- look at the cone, and that south florida probably will be impacted by the storm -- not necessarily a direct hit.
That's neat -- get some up close blogging about the HH.
That would not be a good thing as she for sure would become a major of she stays off shore..... Not wishing this on the DR or anyone tho.
Of course, atmospheric conditions are quite favorable so, that may help to reduce weakening some, but Irene should lose at least some intensity after passing by Puerto Rico.
Finally !. I am falling asleep waiting on this .
Where they will soon find should-have-been-updated-an-hour-ago Hurricane Irene lol.
Huh?
Might be?...you're kidding right?
Nervous anticipation...
Come on now - you're cuttin' hairs in my opinion. Plenty tonight for PR to deal with. Don't you agree?
NAM is a good model to use for large scale pattern forecasts not for tropical system tracks. The overall setup is useful in determining the ridging/troughing that could be present for a storm to work with.
Lol....priorities...
Dude, where you been.......LOL......Thanks!....YOur a true friend....
As long as we are on the west side of it...
I know that by spending money and doing all this work I'm near-guaranteeing that Irene won't come anywhere near here.
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