Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT en Agosto 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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3446. zamudios
4:35 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Seems 93L is begining to get much better organized.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/tropics.cg i?REGION=atlantic&SECTOR=tropics&AGE=Latest&SIZE=F ull&INTERVAL=Most_Recent&PRODUCT=vapor&PATH=/atlan tic/tropics/vapor&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE= Instant

Jamaica's met office issued a public service announcement Tuesday evening regarding expected thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.


Member Since: Agosto 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
3445. Waltanater
3:45 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
I think the HH should go out, definitely.
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3444. AllStar17
3:44 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011




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3443. Drakoen
3:43 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
ASCAT reveals 93L has yet to form a surface circulation

Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
3442. GTcooliebai
3:43 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
1008 mb closed low?

Member Since: Agosto 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
3441. hydrus
3:39 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
GFS 006z: Wonder what that 12Z will look like
This is 228 hours out. I think that is around 9.5 days.


Howdy Gro...That would be a slow mover if that track were to materialize..Lotsa heavy rain and flooding issues..
Member Since: Septiembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21874
3440. GTcooliebai
3:37 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
GFS 006z: Wonder what that 12Z will look like
This is 228 hours out. I think that is around 9.5 days.


Grothar is it me or are the models a little slow with movement on this one. It's already in the central Atlantic, & we all saw how quickly 93L got pushed westward by the Ridging to its north.
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3439. Waltanater
3:35 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Looks like we will have our Depression fairly soon. I definitely see it forming up.
Member Since: Mayo 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
3438. NICycloneChaser
3:35 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting WxLogic:
HH on it's way:

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:16Z
Date: August 17, 2011
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01


Well, there you are. I'm officially suprised.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
3437. caneswatch
3:34 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Precisely.

And, how are those satellites funded? And by what entity?

Hmmm...


Does it really matter if it's government funded? AGW isn't political BS, It's real. I remember a story a few years ago quoting some republican who was in office saying that he wanted to grow orange-fruit trees in the Arctic.

Tell me, how is it political?
Member Since: Octubre 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
3436. Grothar
3:34 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting ncstorm:


Actually, I called in last night.
Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
3435. jpsb
3:34 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


While there's many days to watch for change. I have never seen all the models being consistent on a storm that hasn't even formed; however, it is past the Cape Verde Islands already. It's something to start taking seriously and if you live from LA to Maine, you need to make sure you are prepared just in case pre-Irene threatens ur area.
Well since I have watched system after system fail to develop into much this year, I am going to have to see one develop first before I believe a 200 hours model forecast calling for a major hurricane. Something is killing systems this year and until that stops not much is going to happen.
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3434. hydrus
3:33 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
I do believe that 93 is getting organised rather quickly now...
Member Since: Septiembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21874
3433. Grothar
3:33 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
GFS 006z: Wonder what that 12Z will look like
This is 228 hours out. I think that is around 9.5 days.


Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
3432. CanesfanatUT
3:33 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


Uhhhhh, no, exactly wrong. And as far as the "Nation's Weather History" going back to 1880, what?


Man I'm hurtin' and mad today, brah. Can't we win with all this cheating?? I mean, really.

Feels bad, man. Real bad.
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3431. WxLogic
3:32 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
12Z GFS Initialization:

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3430. miguel617
3:32 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
new blog.
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3429. reedzone
3:32 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Hi Reed-

What effects will SAL have on the 'Pre-Irene', or pre-Harvey' for that matter if 93L kaputs.


Gotta head to work, but shear is forecast to lower by the end of the week I think.. It's gonna be a very interesting week next week.
Member Since: Julio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
3428. ncstorm
3:32 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like a good blob off of the East coast of Florida


I called the east coast this morning..lets see if something develops from that front (click on NWS Fronts)..pretty large blob indeed..

Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
3427. WxLogic
3:31 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
HH on it's way:

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:16Z
Date: August 17, 2011
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01
Member Since: Agosto 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5032
3426. mcluvincane
3:30 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting ncstorm:


the models were never consistent with any of the previous storms that have developed..but this time its different..you have several models (ECWMF, GFS, UKMET, NAM, CMC)predicting development for about a week now and they still keep running the same set up with development..you cant dispute that we wont have development, the dispute can only be in the tracking of the system now..


+1000
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3425. ncstorm
3:30 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting mcluvincane:


Ummm.. No there were no reliable models predicting Emily to strike florida as a major hurricane. We have the ECMWF,GFS,UKMET,CMC all in agreement with this one

LOL..I just said that..must be that wilmington flair..
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
3424. rmbjoe1954
3:29 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


While there's many days to watch for change. I have never seen all the models being consistent on a storm that hasn't even formed; however, it is past the Cape Verde Islands already. It's something to start taking seriously and if you live from LA to Maine, you need to make sure you are prepared just in case pre-Irene threatens ur area.


Hi Reed-

What effects will SAL have on the 'Pre-Irene', or pre-Harvey' for that matter if 93L kaputs.
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3423. ncstorm
3:29 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:


Of course, but some here seem to have a short memory and are quick to jump the gun time and time again, like I said, some, not all.


the models were never consistent with any of the previous storms that have developed..but this time its different..you have several models (ECWMF, GFS, UKMET, NAM, CMC)predicting development for about a week now and they still keep running the same set up with development..you cant dispute that we wont have development, the dispute can only be in the tracking of the system now..
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
3422. Thunderpig75
3:28 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Yesterday, I posted that you should put milk jugs of water in your freezer before storms to keep food colder longer in the event of a power loss. That prompted a 2-hour debate on the food safety hazards of reusing milk jugs. The better suggestion would have been to use gallon jugs of bottled water, then you could also use them for drinking. Anyway, at risk of creating more unintended controversy, I have another hurricane preparedness tip:

My neighborhood was beat up badly in Hurricane Ivan, but the only damage to the inside of our well-constructed homes came from water intrusion through roof vents which, in turn, caused ceilings to collapse. I avoided this by taking foam pool flotation "noodles," cutting them to the length I needed, and wedging them in the horizontal roof vents. The noodles held fast in the wind because they fit tightly, and no water came in. I hope there are no concerns with this tip, and please understand I'm not suggesting that people swim on their rooftops.


Need to make sure you take them back out as soon as the danger passes or it could overheat the shingles making them completely useless for any further weather situations. Roofs need to breathe or the shingles will cook/dry rot and become penetrable to water.
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3421. reedzone
3:27 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting kshipre1:
reed,

what's your take on this next potential system headed westward toward the Florida peninsula/EGOM?


While there's many days to watch for change. I have never seen all the models being consistent on a storm that hasn't even formed; however, it is past the Cape Verde Islands already. It's something to start taking seriously and if you live from LA to Maine, you need to make sure you are prepared just in case pre-Irene threatens ur area.
Member Since: Julio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
3420. kmanislander
3:26 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I'd be suprised if it isn't.


I agree. With cost cutting everywhere the gas and man hours would be better spent on a real threat later on. When the season gets busy, and all indications are that it will, there will be several flights into multiple systems so conserving resources early in the season makes all the sense in the world.
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3418. jpsb
3:26 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting yonzabam:



Never been able to get my head around the idea of a satellite reliably measuring sea level to millimetre accuracy.
Lol, you need a really really good clock.
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3416. mcluvincane
3:24 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting Jedkins01:


Of course, but some here seem to have a short memory and are quick to jump the gun time and time again, like I said, some, not all.


Ummm.. No there were no reliable models predicting Emily to strike florida as a major hurricane. We have the ECMWF,GFS,UKMET,CMC all in agreement with this one
Member Since: Junio 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1394
3414. NICycloneChaser
3:23 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting kmanislander:
93L is practically on top of this buoy and surface pressures are rising. I wouldn't be surprised if the HH tasked for today is cancelled.


I'd be suprised if it isn't.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
3413. Mucinex
3:23 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting FLdewey:


Does FEMA ask that you coat the noodles in bleach first? ;-)

If they are the official FEMA pool noodles they will come factory-installed with Formaldehyde. No need to deal with pesky bleach. Also, they will arrive in time for Christmas.
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3412. GTcooliebai
3:22 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting weathers4me:
3382. GTcooliebai 3:12 PM GMT on August 17, 2011 +0


Look at the spin on this wave here: Link

If it can get away from that SAL, its going to explode. It's huge!! I'm surprised it is not yellow yet.

SAL doesn't look too bad, in fact the wave behind our AOI has a clear path to develop now.

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3411. shawn26
3:22 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
That could end up being a very large storm.
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3410. serialteg
3:21 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
anticyclone over 93L, 20kt shear over 30W wave



Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
3409. kmanislander
3:21 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
93L is practically on top of this buoy and surface pressures are rising. I wouldn't be surprised if the HH tasked for today is cancelled.


Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 78 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.05 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 °F
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3408. SouthDadeFish
3:21 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Buoy updated: Still shows east winds and a rising pressure. We may not see development until Friday, unless it crashes into Honduras and Nicaragua.

Link
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3407. Chucktown
3:21 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai:


Look at the spin on this wave here: Link


I also notice the tremendous amount of dry air ahead of this wave and the upper level low to the northwest of it. Still several obstacles for this to overcome before any kind of development can occur. Probably still why NHC hasn't "tagged" it yet. Also, notice how quickly the convection has waned since this morning.

Link
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3406. Jedkins01
3:21 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting stillwaiting:
didnt the models show emily crushing s.fl at one point,i remember she was also supposed to be a big one long range...


Of course, but some here seem to have a short memory and are quick to jump the gun time and time again, like I said, some, not all.
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3405. yonzabam
3:21 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting jpsb:
Not really, the only really reliable info on sea level would come from satellite measurements, since land masses slowly rise and fall for all kinds of reasons. And sea level measurements via satellites are a fairly recent development so there is not enough data points to allow any conclusions.



Never been able to get my head around the idea of a satellite reliably measuring sea level to millimetre accuracy.
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3404. hydrus
3:21 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Two very large waves... And a seriously potent wave behind them over Africa..
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3402. mcluvincane
3:19 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Link

Check this loop out with the massive wave models predict
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3400. stillwaiting
3:18 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
didnt the models show emily crushing s.fl at one point,i remember she was also supposed to be a big one long range...
Member Since: Octubre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
3399. tryingtolearn
3:18 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
hello everyone, This is my vry first post on here and as the name suggest i want to learn more about what goes on in here. I dont know squat about thus weather information.

been reading everyones post for two years now and been able to pick up just a few things of whats being said, If the regulars on here dont mind i may ask a few question ( have note book handy) i live about 1 hour from the gulf of mexico in louisiana so i pay close attention to all the post as well as Dr. matthews information. i will thank everyone ahead of time for your answers and patience.
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3398. wunderkidcayman
3:18 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting usa777:
Even if 93 does spin up it looks like it's headed into central America.


I don't trust the models what so ever till the HH flys in and we get a better idea of there the LLC is where it moving and how strong it is with out even that doesen't make sense to look at them
Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
3396. GTcooliebai
3:18 PM GMT en Agosto 17, 2011
Quoting kshipre1:
hello,

strange how the GFS shows it going up the east coast after hitting florida.

almost hinting at a possible trough? weird because the Bermuda High is supposed to be parked in the Western atlantic and pretty strong at that

You don't think the EGOM is equally at risk?
This storm could be an anomaly, that follows a strange track, last nights GFS showed a storm riding up the West Coast of FL. after passing through the Keys, this morning it shifted a little to the right and now has it going up the spine of the state, the ECMWF keeps it just offshore of the East Coast of FL. with the Subtropical Ridge building in.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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