Tropical Depression Seven forms
The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.
92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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May it perhaps not develop then also.......Hey Brother.....Lets keep our fingers crossed for little to nothing this year!
I have been saying that for days.....
Hey Pot......that makes at least 2 of us correct.......LOL.....been on Vacation since August 1st and just got back Friday....glad things have been quite for most in the Tropical Regions thus far.
welcome; but i got that off their site most folks dont read the instruction manuel :)
It was. I was in the first grade at the time. We went to school and immediately allowed outside for recess to try to catch the showflakes on our tongues. If I remeber correctly portions of Miami actaully had accumulations of ~1 inch on the cars. Of course anything that hit the ground melted immediately.
Huh?
Hope Taz does not see that sentence, LOL!
A 2 week Holiday is a Good Thing! Hope the weather was good too!
Based upon the forecast steering for next Wednesday and Thursday a weak to moderate TS would be steered to the WNW across the NW Caribbean. There is a weakness forecasted between the Bahamas and Louisiana around Wednesday that could pull a system to the NW but it would all be a matter of timing. Come Thursday a high is shown digging down from Texas that could shunt it WNW across the Yucatan or serve as a blocker forcing a more NW track.
That is the best I can say right now.All a matter of timing, strength and, of course, something forming in the first place
Like this :)
Without betting my house away......but, I belive 93L will at least get an Invest Status again to monitor once it passes the Eastern Caribbean.
I stand incorrected......
:):))
Still waiting for the first hurricane of the season (with the Avg. formation date being around Aug 10th I believe) but this is quite the anomaly this year.
With all of the trof and frontal remnants to come over the next few weeks, does anyone think our first Cane might come from closer to the US or Caribbean rather than from a CV wave? Just a thought but anything could happen; the same way we have had a cluster of CV tropical storms recently, this pattern could change in later August and we could have (the usual) cluster of Hurricanes.....I don't have a clue what will happen.
Nope Rod Stewart with his hair dyed!
Thanks for post the info; I prefer to stick with the simpler description; relative sheer equals the difference between upper level and lower level winds in a particular geographic area............. :)
Complete with the cool hairdos ;D
MJO loves the Atlantic!
Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
(provides probabilitity of tropical cyclone occurence associated with
convectively coupled equatorial waves, ENSO, and the MJO)
hey watch it with the dinosaur caomments - doesn't seem that long ago to some of us. :D
Well, gotta go, dinner's burning and kids are "dying" of hunger . . . thanks for the trip down memory lane.
It's embedded in a large moisture field, though. Dry air isn't going to kill it enough for it totally dissipate. The biggest issue is whether it can obtain a decent low level center.
It is now!
But Zombies do appear from time to time.
When least expected.
So watch out!
She has about 36 hours so that decent enough for gradual strengthening...
So far this Hurricane Season:
ACE: 10.6
$ in Damage:
$218 Million
Total Amount of Storms:
7 Named Storms
0 Hurricanes
0 Major Hurricanes
1 US Landfall...
Strongest Storms:
Arlene~ 65 Mph TS 993 MB
Hey xcool! Hadn't seen you in awhile.
I would like to see the NWS daily temp log for that 4 week stretch -seems like an exaggeration.
Why is this so? (real question, I have no idea why)
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