Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Depression Seven forms
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:25 PM GMT en Agosto 14, 2011 +14
The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn't the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7's. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we've been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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1251. TampaSpin 1:07 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting kmanislander:


On the one hand it may but on the other..... well perhaps.


May it perhaps not develop then also.......Hey Brother.....Lets keep our fingers crossed for little to nothing this year!
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
1252. pottery 1:08 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting TampaSpin:




The very dry air is what is preventing it from forming!!!!!






I have been saying that for days.....
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1253. GTcooliebai 1:10 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting daddyjames:


Actually, it was 1977. I was there. Remeber walking out of the house thinking "What is this white stuff falling out of the sky?"

From Wikipedia:
January 17, 1977: The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a Nor'easter over Atlantic Canada sends very cold temperatures southward into the state. Areas around Pensacola are the first to receive the snow. Then the rest of The Panhandle. Followed by record accumulations for The Nature Coast, the I-4 corridor (both Orlando and Tampa receive light accumulations of about 1-2" with a few isolated spots reportedly receiving 3-6"), and finally South Florida. By early on January 19, West Palm Beach reported snow for the first time on record, with snow flurries reaching as far south as Homestead. The snow causes little impact as it was of the dry variety, though the accompanying cold air results in hundreds of millions of dollars in damage (Orlando tied the 1899 record of over six consecutive nights well-below freezing). On January 20, the Miami Herald reports the event as the front page story, with a headline of a size usually reserved for the declaration of war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_snow_events_ in_Florida#cite_note-almanac-11
That would've been quite the site, wish I was alive then, we almost had snow last year.
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1254. scott39 1:11 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
ex93L not developing before now is not a good thing, unless it runs itself into CA as rain.
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1255. TampaSpin 1:11 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting pottery:

I have been saying that for days.....



Hey Pot......that makes at least 2 of us correct.......LOL.....been on Vacation since August 1st and just got back Friday....glad things have been quite for most in the Tropical Regions thus far.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
1256. blsealevel 1:11 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks for your fine explanation on shear & what each numerical value inside the yellow shapes represents, along with the tan color streamlines in the background.


welcome; but i got that off their site most folks dont read the instruction manuel :)
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1257. GTcooliebai 1:13 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting scott39:
ex93L not developing before now is not a good thing, unless it runs itself into CA as rain.
That could very well happen, unless a trough swings down & tries to pull it up.
Member Since: Agosto 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5189
1258. daddyjames 1:13 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That would've been quite the site, wish I was alive then, we almost had snow last year.



It was. I was in the first grade at the time. We went to school and immediately allowed outside for recess to try to catch the showflakes on our tongues. If I remeber correctly portions of Miami actaully had accumulations of ~1 inch on the cars. Of course anything that hit the ground melted immediately.
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1259. tropicfreak 1:14 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting scott39:
ex93L not developing before now is not a good thing, unless it runs itself into CA as rain.



Huh?
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1260. pottery 1:14 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting TampaSpin:



Hey Pot......that makes at least 2 of us correct.......LOL.....been on Vacation since August 1st and just got back Friday....glad things have been quite for most in the Tropical Regions thus far.

Hope Taz does not see that sentence, LOL!

A 2 week Holiday is a Good Thing! Hope the weather was good too!
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1262. Stormchaser2007 1:16 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Week 2

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1264. ShenValleyFlyFish 1:17 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting pottery:

I have been saying that for days.....
No you're wrong! The chronalflaug adveconium heliologica vorticon motion will mitigate for that.
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1265. kmanislander 1:17 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting scott39:
If it does develope by 75W, do you see it being pulled N into the GOM? TIA


Based upon the forecast steering for next Wednesday and Thursday a weak to moderate TS would be steered to the WNW across the NW Caribbean. There is a weakness forecasted between the Bahamas and Louisiana around Wednesday that could pull a system to the NW but it would all be a matter of timing. Come Thursday a high is shown digging down from Texas that could shunt it WNW across the Yucatan or serve as a blocker forcing a more NW track.

That is the best I can say right now.All a matter of timing, strength and, of course, something forming in the first place
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1266. GTcooliebai 1:17 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting daddyjames:



It was. I was in the first grade at the time. We went to school and immediately allowed outside for recess to try to catch the showflakes on our tongues. If I remeber correctly portions of Miami actaully had accumulations of ~1 inch on the cars. Of course anything that hit the ground melted immediately.

Like this :)

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1267. TampaSpin 1:18 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting weatherjr:
Our EX-Invest 93 finally POOF. What will be next? (for eastern most the caribbean)



Without betting my house away......but, I belive 93L will at least get an Invest Status again to monitor once it passes the Eastern Caribbean.
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1269. pottery 1:19 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
No you're wrong! The chronalflaug adveconium heliologica vorticon motion will mitigate for that.

I stand incorrected......

:):))
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1270. overwash12 1:19 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Like this :)

1977? Leisure suit gave it away.lol
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1271. scott39 1:20 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Like this :)

Hey...Thats Billy Joel!
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1272. angiest 1:21 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
As promised, photos from Lake Somerville earlier today.  The lake is at or below 50% capacity.
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1273. weathermanwannabe 1:21 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Good Evening Folks. The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda.

Still waiting for the first hurricane of the season (with the Avg. formation date being around Aug 10th I believe) but this is quite the anomaly this year.

With all of the trof and frontal remnants to come over the next few weeks, does anyone think our first Cane might come from closer to the US or Caribbean rather than from a CV wave? Just a thought but anything could happen; the same way we have had a cluster of CV tropical storms recently, this pattern could change in later August and we could have (the usual) cluster of Hurricanes.....I don't have a clue what will happen.
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1274. TampaSpin 1:22 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting scott39:
Hey...Thats Billy Joel!


Nope Rod Stewart with his hair dyed!
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
1275. GTcooliebai 1:23 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting angiest:
As promised, photos from Lake Somerville earlier today.  The lake is at or below 50% capacity.
That is a pretty large lake, sad that the drought is doing this :(
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1276. PcolaDan 1:23 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Sorry thelmores, seems like you were wasting your breath.
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1277. weathermanwannabe 1:23 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting blsealevel:


welcome; but i got that off their site most folks dont read the instruction manuel :)


Thanks for post the info; I prefer to stick with the simpler description; relative sheer equals the difference between upper level and lower level winds in a particular geographic area............. :)
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1278. overwash12 1:24 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting TampaSpin:


Nope Rod Stewart with his hair dyed!
Tony Orlando!
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1279. Tropicsweatherpr 1:25 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
nrtiwlnvragn, I posted earlier about 96L being deleited at atcf. My question is why they didn't deactivated 96L but deleited it?

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1282. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:26 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
That was the scariest lightning strike I have ever seen in my lifetime.

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1283. daddyjames 1:27 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Like this :)



Complete with the cool hairdos ;D
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1285. MississippiWx 1:28 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Week 2



MJO loves the Atlantic!
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1286. xcool 1:28 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    



Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
(provides probabilitity of tropical cyclone occurence associated with
convectively coupled equatorial waves, ENSO, and the MJO)
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
1287. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:29 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Gert has the appearance of a gradually strengthening tropical storm. Will probably strengthen overnight and affect Bermuda tomorrow with tropical storm conditions.

Member Since: Julio 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25320
1289. scott39 1:31 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting P451:


Not enough to salvage x93L before 70W.

The Caribbean is a dead zone and I don't think you see a rapid change in that (next 72 hours if you will).

So you think ex93L is dead dead dead!!??
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1290. daddyjames 1:32 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting WhoDat1:


Is that a dinosaur in the background..


hey watch it with the dinosaur caomments - doesn't seem that long ago to some of us. :D

Well, gotta go, dinner's burning and kids are "dying" of hunger . . . thanks for the trip down memory lane.
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1291. MississippiWx 1:33 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting P451:


Not enough to salvage x93L before 70W.

The Caribbean is a dead zone and I don't think you see a rapid change in that (next 72 hours if you will).



It's embedded in a large moisture field, though. Dry air isn't going to kill it enough for it totally dissipate. The biggest issue is whether it can obtain a decent low level center.
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1292. GTcooliebai 1:34 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting daddyjames:


Complete with the cool hairdos ;D
Well IDK who it really is, still what a site it must have been, I could only imagine the school children going outside, especially those who have never seen snow or had the chance to roll up in it, trying to make tiny snowballs and throw it at one another.
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1293. pottery 1:34 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting scott39:
So you think ex93L is dead dead dead!!??

It is now!
But Zombies do appear from time to time.
When least expected.
So watch out!
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1294. weathermanwannabe 1:34 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
That observed inverse relationship between the E-Pac and Atlantic Basins has been pretty much thrown out the window this year with multiple storms at the same time on both sides so far.......It has some basis in the MJO cycle but the E-Pac is primed to pop again at the moment while we wait on the next Atlantic system ITCZ wise.
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1296. HurricaneDean07 1:35 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Thinking Gert will peak around 60 to 65 Mph TS...
She has about 36 hours so that decent enough for gradual strengthening...

So far this Hurricane Season:
ACE: 10.6

$ in Damage:
$218 Million

Total Amount of Storms:
7 Named Storms
0 Hurricanes
0 Major Hurricanes

1 US Landfall...

Strongest Storms:
Arlene~ 65 Mph TS 993 MB
Member Since: Octubre 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4053
1297. JLPR2 1:36 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting xcool:



Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
(provides probabilitity of tropical cyclone occurence associated with
convectively coupled equatorial waves, ENSO, and the MJO)


Hey xcool! Hadn't seen you in awhile.
Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
1298. TampaSpin 1:37 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting MississippiWx:


It's embedded in a large moisture field, though. Dry air isn't going to kill it enough for it totally dissipate. The biggest issue is whether it can obtain a decent low level center.



Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
1299. TallyMike 1:37 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting klew136:

The iguanas falling out of trees happened two years also, in the Keys, we didn't go over 55 for a period of at least four weeks, and the lows were in the 40's and no one has heat in their house. We weren't upset over the iguanas because they are not suppose to live here, but we were upset over the fish kill due to cold temps on the surface and no oxygen to the fish.


I would like to see the NWS daily temp log for that 4 week stretch -seems like an exaggeration.
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1300. PcolaDan 1:37 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting P451:


Not enough to salvage x93L before 70W.

The Caribbean is a dead zone and I don't think you see a rapid change in that (next 72 hours if you will).



Why is this so? (real question, I have no idea why)
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
1301. GTcooliebai 1:37 AM GMT en Agosto 15, 2011    
Quoting P451:


That rapid increase in steering layer forward motion isn't helping either. The wave axis was sheared far ahead of the area of convection once it felt the influence of the upward speed of the steering layer.



Is this an indication of how strong the Ridging is?
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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