Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time

How many storms this year?

A10 or below
B11-15
c over 15

how strong will gert be when it passes bermuda?

a35-45
b45-55
c55-65

What will 96l be at 8??

a0-20%
b30-50%
c60-80%
d td

When will ex93l be rementioned

a8 pm
b2 am
c8 am
d2pm

i think c b b a

CCBC.

Quoting islander101010:
favorite blues band is n. miss allstars what about ex 93?

Lol...Nice. We have a lot of talent here in MS. Anywhere from music, to athletics, to movie stars...you name it. We got it! :-)

Anyway, x93L needs to be watched, especially down the road in the Caribbean. As for now, it has lost all model support. The Euro tries to develop it in the extreme Western Caribbean before coming ashore in Central America. If it can keep any sort of vorticity going, it will have favorable conditions in the Caribbean with the MJO, low shear, and very high SSTs.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Time to pull out the sweaters!

Might have to call out the salt trucks.

Oh, and: Evacuate the Katy Prairie! oh noes...!

Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time

How many storms this year?

A10 or below
B11-15
c over 15

how strong will gert be when it passes bermuda?

a35-45
b45-55
c55-65

What will 96l be at 8??

a0-20%
b30-50%
c60-80%
d td

When will ex93l be rementioned

a8 pm
b2 am
c8 am
d2pm

i think c b b a

CCCA

More evidence that 92L is getting absorbed into Gert...Look at the 850mb vort:

6 hours ago:



Now:

This sudden burst of activity is just a glimpse of what we will see later this month and into the month of September. MJO is expected to enter the basin and stick around through the end of this month, and probably longer. Wind shear is now very low across the tropical Atlantic, and once the MJO enters the region, so will be much of the dry air and SAL. Sea Surface temperatures are boiling, and TCHP in the western Caribbean is now skyrocketing.

I seriously doubt we won't reach at least 18 named storms, and there is a good chance of tying, or surpassing, last years numbers. Not trying to spell doom, just posting what I see.

Quoting deaddude21:

+1 for having SOME reason.

Lol now I only have "some" reason. How am I not fully reasonable....? Oh well... I tried.

Anyway, 93L may be in the most favorable environment out of all the tropical entities we are watching now. If it can acquire more vorticity, look out.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This sudden burst of activity is just a glimpse of what we will see later this month and into the month of September. MJO is expected to enter the basin and stick around through the end of this month, and probably longer. Wind shear is now very low across the tropical Atlantic, and once the MJO enters the region, so will be much of the dry air and SAL. Sea Surface temperatures are boiling, and TCHP in the western Caribbean is now skyrocketing.

I seriously doubt we won't reach at least 18 named storms, and there is a good chance of tying, or surpassing, last years numbers. Not trying to spell doom, just posting what I see.

I think this season will surpass last year's total TS numbers, but not ACE or hurricane numbers. Might be close though.

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Long-range (10 to 15 day) GFS continues to indicate a much more favorable synoptic steering regime for United States landfalls, with ridging over the east, and troughing over the south

Quoting deaddude21:

Fine, be that way. Iggy me. Thin skin is going to destroy America faster than the faux bird flu pandemic would have in 2006.

<

Quoting KoritheMan:
Long-range (10 to 15 day) GFS continues to indicate a much more favorable synoptic steering regime for United States landfalls, with ridging over the east, and troughing over the south

ouch

Quoting MississippiWx:
More evidence that 92L is getting absorbed into Gert...Look at the 850mb vort:

6 hours ago:



Now:

Looks like 93l's got a little stronger?

Im thinking we will prob have more landfalls this year also... Im gonna go with at least 2 hurricane landfalls could be more. Hopefully everyone is prepared and ready.

Quoting thunderbug91:
Will ex-93L regain classification as 93L? Or will it get a new name, like 97L or 98L...

Basic rule of reclassification is whether or not the entity has completely dissipated and / or interacted with other entities. Even though 93L was deactivated, the actual weather feature i.e. the associated Twave never completely disappeared. So because it is the same feature, it gets the same name / number. Other features, e.g. Emily the second time around, which have been absorbed by other weather systems, will not get back their old name. That's because they're a composite of the old, named feature and the new feature. The most notable example of this for me is Hurricane Katrina.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Looks like 93l's got a little stronger?

Yeah, the vort is a little stronger. Needs to get a lot stronger than that to be a player, though.

Quoting MississippiWx:
More evidence that 92L is getting absorbed into Gert...Look at the 850mb vort:

6 hours ago:



Now:

Notice that that area near Puerto Rico has completely split from Gert.

Pretty well-defined upper level anticyclone atop 93L. Favorable upper-level conditions are also present over the AOI north of Hispañola.

96L is diving into an area of 40 knot westerly upper-level winds.

Quoting stormhank:
Im thinking we will prob have more landfalls this year also... Im gonna go with at least 2 hurricane landfalls could be more. Hopefully everyone is prepared and ready.

The continued lack of hurricane strikes is NOT a good thing. This same situation occurred in the early 1970s, and was even noted by former senior hurricane specialist Miles Lawrence, who retired from the NHC in 2005.

All it does is breed complacency, which in the end costs more lives and money than it otherwise would have.

looking at recon, Gert may sadly have the strongest circulation of any system this season lol

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Nice Banner!!!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This sudden burst of activity is just a glimpse of what we will see later this month and into the month of September. MJO is expected to enter the basin and stick around through the end of this month, and probably longer. Wind shear is now very low across the tropical Atlantic, and once the MJO enters the region, so will be much of the dry air and SAL. Sea Surface temperatures are boiling, and TCHP in the western Caribbean is now skyrocketing.

I seriously doubt we won't reach at least 18 named storms, and there is a good chance of tying, or surpassing, last years numbers. Not trying to spell doom, just posting what I see.

I agree.

I guess I was wrong on 93, it seems to have vanished! Well almost.

98E is not looking healthy at all right now. Its thunderstorm activity is separated well away from its center of circulation. Chances aren't looking good for classification at this time, and it doesn't deserve a code red.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

My philosiphy.... Report ignore move on

Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, the vort is a little stronger. Needs to get a lot stronger than that to be a player, though.

Yeah. I do remember way back when it had support that the models showed it would be a slow development.

XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.33N/53.23W


07L/TS/G/CX
invest 92L TO SE BEING ABSORBED

Anyone think 93l could be reclassified by the NHC by tomorrow? I believe its movin into more favorable conditions?

Quoting stormhank:
Anyone think 93l could be reclassified by the NHC by tomorrow? I believe its movin into more favorable conditions?

i do

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This sudden burst of activity is just a glimpse of what we will see later this month and into the month of September. MJO is expected to enter the basin and stick around through the end of this month, and probably longer. Wind shear is now very low across the tropical Atlantic, and once the MJO enters the region, so will be much of the dry air and SAL. Sea Surface temperatures are boiling, and TCHP in the western Caribbean is now skyrocketing.

I seriously doubt we won't reach at least 18 named storms, and there is a good chance of tying, or surpassing, last years numbers. Not trying to spell doom, just posting what I see.

There has been a good amount of SAL in the Atlantic. Dry sinking air is not a good recipe for development. It is a bigger killer than shear majority of the time. The Atlantic just needs more time to squeeze out the remaining bigger spots of dry air. The wave train coming off Africa should moisten it up good in the coming weeks and September should be one crazy active month...especially if the MJO sticks around a little longer.

Quoting stormhank:
Anyone think 93l could be reclassified by the NHC by tomorrow? I believe its movin into more favorable conditions?

Yup I think so...

Quoting stormhank:
Anyone think 93l could be reclassified by the NHC by tomorrow? I believe its movin into more favorable conditions?

I think they will wait until Tuesday.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pretty well-defined upper level anticyclone atop 93L. Favorable upper-level conditions are also present over the AOI north of Hispañola.

96L is diving into an area of 40 knot westerly upper-level winds.

I think 93L will probally develop while in the carribean.Or at least have the chances upped for development.

Quoting P451:
Hypothetical: If the season ends up with let's say 20 named storms, would you look back and say "WOW!! what an active season!" or would you look back and say "Yeah, the numbers are there, but 6 of those were tiny weak short lived systems."


Just wondering what is important to folks when judging a season's importance.

If pple are really honest, they'll say, "It all depends on whether one of those OTHER storms had a direct impact on me."... lol But yeah, doubt most pple would be much concerned about the 6 weak storms if during ASO we had a lot of big bad ones.

Quoting deaddude21:
Tropicalanalyst: But that's what I mean, cold water and shear from troughs is too much to allow anything strong to hit the CONUS in November. Ida was pretty weak to begin with though the most interesting storm of the terribly weak season.

When you think of the November hurricanes in recent history -- Lenny, Paloma, Tomas. What happens in every case? They go ENE out to sea or die before they approach Florida or the Gulf Coast. Ida was the best candidate, just too weak.

Frankly, should I care so much if they don't hit the US, so long as they DO hit:

Any Lesser Antilles island
Caymans
Jamaica
Hispaniola
Cuba
The Bahamas / TCI???

All this is pretty subjective. I agree with the person who said the season isn't over until 30 Nov. The fact that YOU haven't been hit before doesn't mean that you can't get hit. With SSTs staying anomalously warmer later into the season, the possibilities are still there.

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GERT AL072011 08/14/11 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 51 54 54 51 45 40 37 34
V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 51 54 54 51 45 40 37 34
V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 52 55 54 49 46 45 47 51
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 7 9 10 4 30 65 58 42 26 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 2 5 0 -2 -2 -4 1
SHEAR DIR 295 348 349 13 9 24 201 233 237 238 237 235 241
SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.6 27.1 26.3 24.5 16.9 10.6 12.7 11.1 11.0 11.5
POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 141 133 128 121 107 77 70 69 67 66 65
ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 123 117 113 109 97 73 68 67 65 63 63
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -51.4 -49.7 -49.3 -49.6 -49.4
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 59 62 65 66 64 56 51 42 46 45
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -17 -31 -44 -48 -50 -60 -31 31 92 148 169 151 166
200 MB DIV -3 7 3 17 40 17 32 16 22 31 21 10 2
700-850 TADV 4 2 -1 1 5 10 7 -18 -82 -93 -44 -31 -44
LAND (KM) 1160 1240 1290 1242 1162 892 675 277 513 933 1281 1448 1203
LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.4 30.2 31.6 33.0 36.4 40.3 44.5 48.9 52.1 54.2 55.7 56.0
LONG(DEG W) 63.1 63.4 63.6 63.4 63.1 60.6 56.3 51.4 46.0 41.0 36.5 32.4 28.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 11 14 17 23 27 28 26 20 15 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 29 25 15 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=623)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0)

Quoting robert88:


There has been a good amount of SAL in the Atlantic. Dry sinking air is not a good recipe for development. It is a bigger killer than shear majority of the time. The Atlantic just needs more time to squeeze out the remaining bigger spots of dry air. The wave train coming off Africa should moisten it up good in the coming weeks and September should be one crazy active month...especially if the MJO sticks around a little longer.

Last year had a lot more dry air and SAL.

WAIT! What is this feeling? I think I'm um actually cold? Lol. Sorry took me a second to recognize the sensation. And this is why we put up with the heat dear friends (at least me anyways). The mercury dropped below 80 and I need to go put socks on. Lol.

Weather Station
Orange (KORG)
Elevation
13 ft
Station Select
Now
Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm
Temperature
75 °F
Feels Like 75 °F

Quoting nofailsafe:


It's drizzling here in west u. They started to fizzle once they got inside the beltway, as usual... :(

Maybe that second line can hold on long enough it is much stronger...doubt it though it has a long way to go

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
WAIT! What is this feeling? I think I'm um actually cold? Lol. Sorry took me a second to recognize the sensation. And this is why we put up with the heat dear friends (at least me anyways). The mercury dropped below 80 and I need to go put socks on. Lol.

Weather Station
Orange (KORG)
Elevation
13 ft
Station Select
Now
Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm
Temperature
75 °F
Feels Like 75 °F

I'm so happy for you guys though. :)

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
WAIT! What is this feeling? I think I'm um actually cold? Lol. Sorry took me a second to recognize the sensation. And this is why we put up with the heat dear friends (at least me anyways). The mercury dropped below 80 and I need to go put socks on. Lol.

Weather Station
Orange (KORG)
Elevation
13 ft
Station Select
Now
Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm
Temperature
75 �F
Feels Like 75 �F

LOL.

You guys deserve the cooler weather. Probably won't last long though, unfortunately.

t-storms with ex 93L seem too be weaking some tonight but sould re fire later

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
WAIT! What is this feeling? I think I'm um actually cold? Lol. Sorry took me a second to recognize the sensation. And this is why we put up with the heat dear friends (at least me anyways). The mercury dropped below 80 and I need to go put socks on. Lol.

Weather Station
Orange (KORG)
Elevation
13 ft
Station Select
Now
Thunderstorm
Thunderstorm
Temperature
75 °F
Feels Like 75 °F

You guys deserve it after going through all summer with that heat.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Last year had a lot more dry air and SAL.

I thought anomalous upper lows were the culprit?

IMO even though we havnet had a hurricane as yet..lets remember that last year when danielle formed on Aug.21st that before the season ended we had 11 hurricanes ..so I think the hurricanes will come .right now I beleive we could see at least 2 hurricanes before August ends. JMHO.

little spin north of hispanola might be the first of the systems conus homers have to deal with