Record Low Arctic Sea Ice for July; Quiet tropics
Last month, Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest ever recorded for any July in the 1979 to 2011 satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Most of the ice loss occurred in the first half of the month when high pressure made for clear skies and melting sunshine, and warm air blew into the Arctic from the south. In the first two weeks of July, air temperature over the North Pole was 11 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit above average. During the last two weeks of July, low pressure took over and brought cooler temperatures, although it appears this also acted to push the ice around, which resulted in a larger but thinner area of ice. New research shows that old ice continues to decline as well, which is problematic because older ice is more stable and tends to grow thicker over multiple seasons, and new ice is thin and more susceptible to melting. According to the University of Washington Polar Science Center, Arctic sea ice volume was 51% lower than average and 62% lower than the maximum (which was seen in 1979 at the beginning of the record).
Figure 1. Monthly July ice extent from 1979 to 2011 from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows a 6.8% decline per decade.
The low amount of sea ice along Siberia has opened up the Northern Sea Route early (figure 2), and some companies are already taking advantage. It doesn't appear possible to get through the whole passage without the aid of an ice breaker or two around the East Siberian Sea, but compared to the normal route south through the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean, it's a deal. From Yokohama, Japan to the Rotterdam port in the Netherlands, the route through the Arctic is around 8,500 miles. If the Arctic is impassable, the route through the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans is around 13,000 miles.
Figure 2. Sea ice concentration from the University of Illinois Polar Research Group. Image modified to highlight the Northern Sea Route in light blue.
Quiet Tropics
After a brief reformation over the weekend as a tropical depression, Emily finally dissipated for good on Sunday, and the National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory on the system. The 7-day precipitation accumulation for July 30th through August 5th (figure 3) shows us that most of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba dodged the widespread, extreme rain that could have fallen had Emily stayed organized. Locally high accumulation of 5 to 15 inches fell in the Dominican Republic, which was probably aided by topography, but it does not appear that heavy, widespread rain fell in Haiti. The southeast Bahamas also might have also seen some relatively heavy rain (1.5 to 5 inches) from the system as it redeveloped thunderstorm activity north of Cuba late last week.
Figure 3. Satellite-estimates precipitation in millimeters for the 7 days preceding Friday, August 5th. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.
Beyond Emily, we're seeing a typical upswing in African easterly wave activity for August. Out in the main development region of the Atlantic, between Africa and the Caribbean, we have two waves, one near 50°W and the other around 25°W. Neither of these waves are forecast by any models to develop into tropical cyclones at this point, but the National Hurricane Center did invest the eastern wave over the weekend as 92L. They're no longer updating that invest as of yesterday afternoon, since satellite presentation degraded and the GFS stopped developing the wave. Even though they aren't favored to develop, what these systems might provide is a primer for waves that have yet to leave Africa. The next two waves, scheduled to enter the Atlantic around August 11th and August 15th, are looking slightly more favorable, although model support has waned since last week. This is expected though—its hard to get consensus and consistency from models on waves that have yet to enter open water. We'll know more at the end of this week, for sure.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Yeah, but as someone already said, those Texans don't mind paying $3 per KWh...
Speaking of solar energy, how often must one hire someone to clean the panels to maintain efficiency? Living near the ocean, salt is frequently deposited everywhere.
she likes doing that too evere one all so she is bypassing a admins banned here other name got banned so she made a new one too bypass it
In the first two weeks of July, air temperature over the North Pole was 11 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit above average.
The asbestos of the Atlantic Tropics
Not to mention the disassociation of large quantities of methane hydrate in and below the permafrost.
Well it seems that 92L is the sacrificial lamb because it has cleared away all the SAL and the wave after it is entering into a perfectly clear environment.
Electricity up in New England is a concern also. A wind farm off the coast of Cape Cod ran into "coast huger" opposition and court battles because it was going to spoil their view. A transmission line from existing hydro in Canada has run into severe "tree huger" opposition and court battles because it's going to spoil their view. Then there's the new court battles over renewing the nuke licenses. Guess all those "hugers" want to keep using carbon based energy?
Very true. IN East Texas, they burn local lignite - just no way to scrub that ash enough.
Many of us scream at them to authorize more natural gas fired plants - we have plenty of it, the price is good (not like oil), and we need the market.
--Big Spring is installing a recycling plant to turn sewage into drinking water. (Sorta has a Marie Antoinette feel to it, doesn't it? "Let them drink urine!")
--Inflow in the Highland Lakes, which provide water to Austin and surrounding cities, is 1 percent of what it was a year ago.
--Many Texas rivers have simply stopped flowing.
--This drought is the costliest ever for farmers. Ranchers say it will take at least a decade to rebuild their devastated herds (and that's assuming no further droughts in that time).
--Parched cattle moved to better pasture are dying from drinking too much water.
--The Austin area has had more than 40 days at or above 100 degrees this year; the average is 12.
--The Amarillo area has had 38 days at or above 100 degrees this year; the average is 6 (and the record was 26).
--All 254 counties in Texas have been declared natural disasters.
It really all depends on how much energy you need/use and the ability to have a site for it. Just saying solar wouldn't work in my particular situation (lots of trees, no decent location to put in an array the size I would need. I do try to conserve energy and limit waste as much as I can.
It's funny how you say everyone wins, when clearly the polar bears aren't winning...duh.
I hope that was a joke?
it reduces volume, but as you said, about 10% is also above land.
As far as durability, the ones I looked into said they could handle hail up to 1" in diameter...
There' a lot of folks that does that. CM is a good person, she was taking up for u. Let it be gosh.
So 92L went poof, how does the other one look? Could 92 of been making a path for other storms to make it?
sheri
You can sway it any way you like, however the point is, nations leader in energy production is and will continue to be at the forefront of renewable energy as long the public demands it. No need to add incentives or restrictions.
Someone farted and made it go POOF
it most have had been a vary big fart LOL
I think it was Jason lmao
Melting permafrost is a huge issue. It turns solid frozen land into a slushy muddy swamp. Most roads must be completely rebuilt, and doing so is not easy.
I thought you liked recycling...;^)
10:21 PM GMT en Agosto 08, 2011
dang what happened to the blog? Everyone leave for dinner at the same time?
Adaptation is not the answer--the problem is far too large for that--but even if it were, the haves don't have the right to force the have-nots to adapt, do they?
A dog-eat-dog world is only good for the final dog.
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