Record Low Arctic Sea Ice for July; Quiet tropics
Last month, Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest ever recorded for any July in the 1979 to 2011 satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Most of the ice loss occurred in the first half of the month when high pressure made for clear skies and melting sunshine, and warm air blew into the Arctic from the south. In the first two weeks of July, air temperature over the North Pole was 11 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit above average. During the last two weeks of July, low pressure took over and brought cooler temperatures, although it appears this also acted to push the ice around, which resulted in a larger but thinner area of ice. New research shows that old ice continues to decline as well, which is problematic because older ice is more stable and tends to grow thicker over multiple seasons, and new ice is thin and more susceptible to melting. According to the University of Washington Polar Science Center, Arctic sea ice volume was 51% lower than average and 62% lower than the maximum (which was seen in 1979 at the beginning of the record).
Figure 1. Monthly July ice extent from 1979 to 2011 from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows a 6.8% decline per decade.
The low amount of sea ice along Siberia has opened up the Northern Sea Route early (figure 2), and some companies are already taking advantage. It doesn't appear possible to get through the whole passage without the aid of an ice breaker or two around the East Siberian Sea, but compared to the normal route south through the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean, it's a deal. From Yokohama, Japan to the Rotterdam port in the Netherlands, the route through the Arctic is around 8,500 miles. If the Arctic is impassable, the route through the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans is around 13,000 miles.
Figure 2. Sea ice concentration from the University of Illinois Polar Research Group. Image modified to highlight the Northern Sea Route in light blue.
Quiet Tropics
After a brief reformation over the weekend as a tropical depression, Emily finally dissipated for good on Sunday, and the National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory on the system. The 7-day precipitation accumulation for July 30th through August 5th (figure 3) shows us that most of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba dodged the widespread, extreme rain that could have fallen had Emily stayed organized. Locally high accumulation of 5 to 15 inches fell in the Dominican Republic, which was probably aided by topography, but it does not appear that heavy, widespread rain fell in Haiti. The southeast Bahamas also might have also seen some relatively heavy rain (1.5 to 5 inches) from the system as it redeveloped thunderstorm activity north of Cuba late last week.
Figure 3. Satellite-estimates precipitation in millimeters for the 7 days preceding Friday, August 5th. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.
Beyond Emily, we're seeing a typical upswing in African easterly wave activity for August. Out in the main development region of the Atlantic, between Africa and the Caribbean, we have two waves, one near 50°W and the other around 25°W. Neither of these waves are forecast by any models to develop into tropical cyclones at this point, but the National Hurricane Center did invest the eastern wave over the weekend as 92L. They're no longer updating that invest as of yesterday afternoon, since satellite presentation degraded and the GFS stopped developing the wave. Even though they aren't favored to develop, what these systems might provide is a primer for waves that have yet to leave Africa. The next two waves, scheduled to enter the Atlantic around August 11th and August 15th, are looking slightly more favorable, although model support has waned since last week. This is expected though—its hard to get consensus and consistency from models on waves that have yet to enter open water. We'll know more at the end of this week, for sure.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Wall Street Crash was mainly on a Thursday (though the decline happened over a period of weeks).
Still, it could be another present day Minsky moment.
I don't know. It looks like simple, mindless thuggery. However, it seems so coordinated, that it must be more than that.
People in the central US trying to put out fires from a heatwave, and people in London are setting fire to everything they can find. Morons.
???Orbits chosen to always remain out of the geomagneticPole regions cuz charged particles concentrated by the converging magnetic fields would screw up their electronics??? And so the resultant orbit is such that the area nearest the NorthPole itself remains out of side-scan range?
Yes, of course.
Twice in the post 95 period alone: 2002 (first 6) and 2006 (first 5, inc. the 'unnamed' storm).
In 2002 the first 6 storms were tropical storms. And then the seventh one just died as TD7. It wasn't until TD8 until Hurricane Gustav formed as 2002's first hurricane.
It happened in 2006, though the 'E' storm was a hurricane as the second storm was not classified until post-season analysis. Also happened in 2002. Uncommon, but not all that rare.
Its not from Emily at all, its just a deep westerly flow full of deep tropical moisture combined with a little bit of cooling aloft from some mid level troughing over the area.
Its the rain season, this is a very common pattern for this time of year. I would expect an increase over the next couple days as an old cold front tries to come down. Although it will be very weak, a weak front with all this moisture and instability will lead to increased activity the next couple days.
I've had nothing but scary dry lightning out of that so far.
Speaking of Perry and his overheated state: last week, Texas set a record for electricity usage that led to its grid operator paying a whopping $3,000/MWh for peak electricity. To give you some perspective on this, $3,000/MWh translates to $3/KWh, or 40 times the $0.08/KWh a resident of that state normally pays for electricity at home.
Yes, 40 times the normal rate. Maybe instead of declaring another
rain danceday of prayer for the state, the good governor could work on declaring incentives for people to use solar? Maybe?I must be missing something because isn't ice just frozen water? How does the frozen water know if it is old or new? Can you point me to the scientific literature that states "Old" ice melts slower than "New" ice. Where I come from Frozen Water is Frozen Water. BTW that was a nice way to explain that the ice pack is actually larger this month!
Persistent Heat here...
Topped-out at 95.4 F at 2:00 pm.
Some thunder over the northern mountains but here in the flat, not a drop for a couple days. Very little breeze, just HOT !
Yeah I know its so stupid. I don't know about you, but haven't you noticed that the people who blab about GW don't even post all about weather when there is something going on. All they post about is GW. They aren't weather enthusiasts all. They are just political fanboys that think they can figure out all the wolds problems and can solve them.
That's horse-manure. From a cow, Jedkins.
And you should know that already.....
The obvious solution is for Texans to turn all the incandescence bulbs in their home. That should solve everything.
It actually got so bad last week that Texas was buying electricity from Mexico!! (Texas has a weird grid).
Solar would be a good option because it's always working at time of peak summer need. Texas uses wind quite a bit, but the wind doesn't blow during heat waves.
Changing sea ice does not contribute to rises or falls in sea level. You are confusing land ice with sea ice.
Mohandas Gandhi
Old ice generally refers to multi-year ice. New ice generally refers to ice that is only a year or so old. Multi-year ice - ice that has survived both the melt and the accrual seasons more than once - is usually thicker. New ice is thinner. Thinner ice has less volume, and thus melts faster.
The arctic sea ice was the lowest average extent in the satellite record during July. Multi-year ice remains near records. Estimates of arctic ice volume remain near record lows. According to no measure is the ice pack "actually larger this month."
Old ice is Ice that survived a season of melting or wasn't pushed out of the Arctic by currents and melted that way. A better term is multi-year ice. Multi year ice can be thicker than first year ice because it's got a head start once the freezing season begins. All other things being equal, thicker ice takes longer to melt than thinner first year ice.
Or what the other guy said.
And, at the same time, our good governor has forced the Public Utilities Commission to stop payments from the fund specifically set up to help the poor and elderly pay high summer electric bills - this way there is more money on the books and "Look Ma, we balanced our budget!"
Do not be filling up. Buy little bits. The price will fall but the stations are slow to do that. Just how it is.
Go slow on gasoline buying - tell everyone you know. Wait a few days and you'll save real money.
In respect to the hazards of a looming geomagnetic storm I highly recommend to read back to the related blog entries of "our doc" from 2009:
Part one: Space weather storms / Blog March 31st 2009
Part two: A future Space Weather catastrophe / Blog Apr 3rd 2009 [Scroll down to this entry]
Quote:
"We have the very real possibility that a geomagnetic storms of an intensity that has happened before--and will happen again--could knock out the power to tens of millions of Americans for multiple years. The electrical grids in Europe and northern Asia have similar vulnerabilities, so a huge, years-long global emergency affecting hundreds of millions of people and costing many trillions of dollars might result from a repeat of the 1859 or 1921 geomagnetic storms."
Since I've read those entries, especially the second, I'm aware of our vulnerability amid a "safe" town. And since that I use to have a look to spaceweather.com every day.
I talk about both topics, and just as a note... painting with an overly broad brush (see my quote) isn't the best way to get people to pay attention to what you say on here....
Also... Pot, meet kettle.
I do remember as a kid 1954, when a nuke powered sub arose at the North Pole and it was totally ice free. Doesn't that count as a report. In fact, that event occur several times durning the 50s.
My point is, there seems to be cycles to Sea Ice, just as there are cycles in Ocean Heat content.
Just saying.
It was also in a polynya, which is naturally occuring even in heavy ice.
On the NYMEX, yes. I'll see what they are on the spot mkt tonight when the reports come out.
Good idea.
Houston here ..land of concrete ...last electric bill was 382 dollars and change (one month) ...that's a two bedroom condo too!
New or Single year ice is typically less than 5 feet thick; 2 to 3 year old ice averages 6 1/2 feet thick and ice 10 years or older averages more than 16 feet thick. Ice cover melts ~5 feet of thickness during the summer melt season. Ice is ice but thin ice doesn't last through the summer & old thick ice has a better chance...like a thicker ice cube would take longer to melt in your drink.
Actually, it does. Water expands when frozen. Ice is less dense than water.
Do the experiment. When the ice melts, the water level is lower.
Volume increases about 9% when water is frozen. Therefore, when sea ice melts, the volume goes down by 9%.
I originally grew up in mountains, so that is what I'm basing this off of. When ice begins to melt a little and refreezes, and/or has more water freeze on top of it, it freezes thicker, denser, there is less 'air' in the ice. Am I close or way off base?
You are right on. Old ice is like concrete.
yes they did
Incentives for Solar? Is that along the same lines as incentives for buying cars like the Chevy Volt? The American public will do what best suits their interests. Solar, electric cars, ect. are not yet cost effective. In addition, Neo you've made quite a few assumptions about the state of Texas lately. The state of Texas is at the forefront of renewable energy, ranking first in wind energy and top five in nuclear. Texas has the largest wind farm in the world and has contracts for more expansion in this area. Believe me, if/when renewable energy becomes the primary source of energy in this country, you can bet that Texas will be leading the way.
A lot of homeowner's associations in TX are still prohibiting solar panels, the new law that went into effect to limit HOA's authority they think they have to tell property owners how they're allowed to power their own homes has no teeth and is full of loopholes.Link
Sure, it counts as a report. But it's not comparable to satellite data that covers the entire arctic ocean at virtually the same time and measures all the locations in an objective manner. Open ice in one spot at one time is not evidence saying that there was less ice in the 1950s.
Cycles exist, but they have a physical reason. There are oscillations in the data on the short term - you can see this in the data - but they are on top of the accelerating downward climatic trend, which is longer term and not a cycle or oscillation.
they took care of jason
Wind is good because it doesn't use water to generate electricity (and Texas ain't got water), it's bad because during heat waves the wind doesn't blow. During heat waves the sun is out and the days are long which makes solar a better option for peak demand. Diversify.
Texas is a leader in wind. Solar? Conservation? A grid connected to other resources? Not so much.
Considering I dont see Jason around....
I belive that's the highest I have seen that map go this year.
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