Record Low Arctic Sea Ice for July; Quiet tropics
Last month, Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest ever recorded for any July in the 1979 to 2011 satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Most of the ice loss occurred in the first half of the month when high pressure made for clear skies and melting sunshine, and warm air blew into the Arctic from the south. In the first two weeks of July, air temperature over the North Pole was 11 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit above average. During the last two weeks of July, low pressure took over and brought cooler temperatures, although it appears this also acted to push the ice around, which resulted in a larger but thinner area of ice. New research shows that old ice continues to decline as well, which is problematic because older ice is more stable and tends to grow thicker over multiple seasons, and new ice is thin and more susceptible to melting. According to the University of Washington Polar Science Center, Arctic sea ice volume was 51% lower than average and 62% lower than the maximum (which was seen in 1979 at the beginning of the record).
Figure 1. Monthly July ice extent from 1979 to 2011 from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows a 6.8% decline per decade.
The low amount of sea ice along Siberia has opened up the Northern Sea Route early (figure 2), and some companies are already taking advantage. It doesn't appear possible to get through the whole passage without the aid of an ice breaker or two around the East Siberian Sea, but compared to the normal route south through the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean, it's a deal. From Yokohama, Japan to the Rotterdam port in the Netherlands, the route through the Arctic is around 8,500 miles. If the Arctic is impassable, the route through the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans is around 13,000 miles.
Figure 2. Sea ice concentration from the University of Illinois Polar Research Group. Image modified to highlight the Northern Sea Route in light blue.
Quiet Tropics
After a brief reformation over the weekend as a tropical depression, Emily finally dissipated for good on Sunday, and the National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory on the system. The 7-day precipitation accumulation for July 30th through August 5th (figure 3) shows us that most of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba dodged the widespread, extreme rain that could have fallen had Emily stayed organized. Locally high accumulation of 5 to 15 inches fell in the Dominican Republic, which was probably aided by topography, but it does not appear that heavy, widespread rain fell in Haiti. The southeast Bahamas also might have also seen some relatively heavy rain (1.5 to 5 inches) from the system as it redeveloped thunderstorm activity north of Cuba late last week.
Figure 3. Satellite-estimates precipitation in millimeters for the 7 days preceding Friday, August 5th. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.
Beyond Emily, we're seeing a typical upswing in African easterly wave activity for August. Out in the main development region of the Atlantic, between Africa and the Caribbean, we have two waves, one near 50°W and the other around 25°W. Neither of these waves are forecast by any models to develop into tropical cyclones at this point, but the National Hurricane Center did invest the eastern wave over the weekend as 92L. They're no longer updating that invest as of yesterday afternoon, since satellite presentation degraded and the GFS stopped developing the wave. Even though they aren't favored to develop, what these systems might provide is a primer for waves that have yet to leave Africa. The next two waves, scheduled to enter the Atlantic around August 11th and August 15th, are looking slightly more favorable, although model support has waned since last week. This is expected though—its hard to get consensus and consistency from models on waves that have yet to enter open water. We'll know more at the end of this week, for sure.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I have Dismissed the Idea.
It was, after all YOUR Idea.....
And yeah, it would work, but only at night.....
LOL, I feel old. What age would I need to be to understand what everyone is talking about? :-)
you can say that again batman.... :)
You'll do the same someday. We all grew up in a very interesting time. We saw the Golden Age of the US. A new Europe rebuilt, countries which were former enemies become strong allies. The first TV's in color, transistor radios, Elvis, Rock and Roll, the Beattles, the first satellites, the first man on the moon. Computers. Very interesting times.
:) TY
HEY!!!!! We use aspercream...it has no smell! roflmbo
Well, hmmm ... at least 50+...:)
This place is bad for me.
I'm leaving before I get any older.....
Have a Safe one, all.
Monitoring a few tropical waves, but quiet overall...for now
U were on the USS Raliegh LDP-1 too?
im part of the crew lol...i remember when Elvis died, tv with only vhf/uhf and 2 other channels, getting up to turn the channel, reel to reel, then 8 track, to cassette etc...the stuff posted tonight just reminded me i am old lol
Between 60 and 90 would work. Although the youngsters around 60 don't remember as much as we do.
YAY! I am not there yet.
Vicks under my nose
Pillow under my left arm
Icy-Hot or Thera-gesic wraps on my wrist and ankles
Nice knee wrap. I look like the "Revenge of the Mummy"
not sure, we were on the pier...he was fighting it and running toward the shack to try to get down the steps to land it cuz you cant land on the pier only the beach...we saw it surface 2 times before it took off under the pier and snap the rod in 2...appeared to be sand or black tip but cant swear to it...def not a tiger or hammer head tho...but we have caught small hammers from the pier as well
You too!
'nite all.
I'm "Gone, solid Gone">>>>>>>>
See?!?!?!?! Where else ya gonna find that kinda stuff?!?!?!?!
roflmbo, no, USS Acadia, AD-42...they actually just decommed her and sank her this year in CA...sad day for me...it was my home for some time
It's when you can remember when Elvis was "born", you got a problem. LOL
i was bit by a brown recluse...on my leg...was on crutches for a while...couldn't even walk
LOLOLOl....Grothar you are soooooooo funny!!!!
how bout my Mom worked in the Pentagon for the Admiral of the Fleet during the Kennedy Admin... and my dad fought in WW2...
Link
Oh, my goodness!!...how awful....did it crawl out of your shoe.....I check every shoe I put on....
Funny? LOL
Well, well....Aren't you just a little ray of sunshine?!
yeah it been there for a while
(in order of date and time)
06Z
12Z
18Z
00Z
bad for tropics as far as rain in Africa...but glad to see it, one of the missionaries at our church is there, said the earlier droughts caused the price of the food for one of the orphanages went from 800/mo to 1,200/mo...
Sorry. Now I am going to jump out of my bedroom window from the first floor.
You would be post #666.
Grandparents on one side born during the Civil War. Top that one. LOL
500mb anomalies GFS Ensembles forecast
no actually, i had moved a piece of furniture that hadnt been moved in quite some time...now i pull everything out at least once a month and vacuum behind all of it...take all curtains down at least once a month too and wash em...they like to hide in the folds of those too...
my dads parents spent 4 years on ships moving to the US from Europe in the late 1800's....and my Mom's Gma was part of the cause of the civil war...we are Cherokee...
I still have plenty of Valium and Jack Daniels left over from today
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