Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 — Blog Index
Took the full 150+ brunt in florida city. Thankfully storms like this dont come to our shores that often.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that Andrew is part of why we have the EF tornado scale now. Without context, that looks like (E)F-3 to (E)F-4 tornado damage. That picture is just wind damage, correct?
Under the classical Fujita scale, F-3 was 158-207mph, and F-4 was 208-260mph/ Under the Enhanced Fujita scale they are 136-165 and 166-200 respectively. Those numbers probably match well with Andrew's sustained winds and gusts at that time.
Back from dinner w/friends, logged in to see what's up, and am having a Vince Lombardi moment........."What the hell's going on around here?"
Ahhhh!!! Run!! ...actually rain would be nice.
Here's one of those responses you were looking for Spicy. Should I reckon your Aunt left central FL for Homestead to be with someone during Andrew?
I think the sympathy meter would peg higher if you showed what a storm can do to those living in poverty, in comparison to showing huge estates that are probably second or even third homes of the rich down in the Caymans.
I lived on South Beach when Andrew struck. I went down to Cutler Ridge and Homestead, and even could have worked down there had I chosen. It was unreal. Of course, that was one year in the last 23 that I have not resided in New Orleans.
Surely you superimposed a picture of Marco over Florida there.
But I gotta say, I sure wish Emily would've come ashore here in West Palm today as a weak TS. We sure could use the rain and the break from the heat.
What created yet more misery for Hispaniola would have been a God-send here.
Hey "killer," good to see you.
****That 35 mph bag of wind east of Florida****
Don't know about that, but it did redefine the construction industry for the whole state.
As a psych major, you should understand the devastating impact of hurricanes in term of lives lost, property destroyed, but most importantly, the devastation to survivors: physically, mentally, and emotionally. We all are subject to being overwhelmed by events that tear everything we depend on apart.
I did damage assessment following Andrew and Mitch (Honduras). The biggest thing that sticks in my mind was the effect on people. The survivors are just plain stuck: they have no way to get away from all of it: no food, water, electricity, shelter, etc. etc. Years later, they are still affected.
A major hurricane is a major disaster. Maybe in addition to your interest in hurricanes, you might take an interest in people and what mental health professionals can do to help before, during, and after catastrophic events.
… I’m just saying… there’s more to hurricanes… and you're in a field in which you could help make things better
what??????? hahaha
Bad on the arteries. She survive?
He will jfv.
Better go make sure it's not recoon.
Pork and beans?
Hence, the verbal diarrhea.
Sorry, didn't have a good hurricane story....I panicked!
LMAO!!!
I love Lewis Black's "if it wasn't for that horse, i would of never got into college..and then the girl walks away" - the definition of how to get a brain aneurism..
On wifes laptop but i can tell you The NAO has only a small correlation with overall U.S. hurricane landfall probabilities, but it appears to influence strongly which regions in the United States are most likely to experience a hurricane landfall. Strongly positive NAO values are associated with high intense hurricane landfall probabilities along the East Coast.
Charmin please.
................................................. .................................................. ..
Oops, geography lesson, Slidell is not part of New Orleans. Not even the same Parish. Just saying.....
TIA!!!!...;^)
Viewing: 3951 - 4001
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 — Blog Index