Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
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"Backup" one. Link
I guess it's a wait and see then. Thanks.
..Ahhhhh, Look at all the Lonely Invest,
5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 6
Location: 26.9°N 78.1°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Well, I wasn't expecting that.
Welcome back, Ems.
WTNT45 KNHC 062038
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA
FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT
THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALBEIT A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR...AND EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS...IF AT ALL...UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS OVER OPEN WATERS
AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES. AFTER 36
HOURS...EMILY SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AND BE ABSORBED BY A MID-
LATITUDE FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY. EMILY
IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA
THROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS
FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 26.9N 78.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.9N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 29.9N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 31.6N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 33.6N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Correction to word one; Emily.
Very strong circulation, and looks like there is no SAL interaction, due to being blocked by N Water Vapor...
I didn't expect that either lol.
ACK!!
No, i'm not your Meteorology professor, but you should be prepared to prove your point to people on the Blog if you're going to make statements like that.
You somewhat cleared up your analysis here, i'm still a little confused at what you're looking at exactly to make that assessment.
Regardless, I enjoy your opinion on the blog, and I'm sure you will do fine with your degree.
2011080612
25.4 282.2
29.0 282.1
100
25.4 282.2
061600
1108061600
1
WTNT21 KNGU 061600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.4N 77.8W TO 29.0N 77.9W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS.
2. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE
SOUTH FROM 23.0N 076.0W TO 25.0N 079.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 350
DEGREES AT 10 KTS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 84 TO 86 FAHRENHEIT DEGREES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 071600Z.//
9211080612 254N 778W 25
Here's the Data Buoy on the far west end of Freeport Bahamas. (keep in mind, it only updates on the hour)
Freeport Data Buoy
Heres another data buoy to potentially keep an eye on (Lake Worth FL)
Lake Worth Data Buoy
All Active Year
Atlantic
92L.INVEST
05L.EMILY
East Pacific
05E.EUGENE
Central Pacific
West Pacific
91W.INVEST
90W.INVEST
12W.MERBOK
11W.MUIFA
Indian Ocean
Southern Hemisphere
I was typing when the NHC update came out......Guess she barely made TD status...... :)
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAINSINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY. EMILY
IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA
THROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.
Thanks, appreciate that. I'm taking a Radar and Satellite Meteorology class in the fall. Should learn all that good stuff, but now i'm a step ahead lol.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml
And your post not out of line at all IMHO
Thank you!
lol
OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
It does, and it's not post-Emily any more lol
So true...
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