Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Emily with makeup, we can see right through her.
: )
Well lately, similar to previous years, high pressure will probably keep anything that goes far enough South to keep going west into either Texas or Mexico. Compare the potential steering of this year so far to the last few years where Florida has gotten no hurricanes, its a similar regime.
Like I said, I'm not saying its not going to happen. But it looks to me that most storms that go far enough South will just keep going west into Central America, Mexico, or southern Texas. And anything far enough north will steer east and away from Florida also. Its looking more and more like that's going to be the case.
Keep in mind, as we head later into August and September, Mid-Latitude troughs only grow stronger when fall approaches, so I don't see why it will change too much.
How are you making this analysis? I'm not trying to be rude, I usually enjoy you're posts, but if you are going to say something like that you better back it up with more reasoning then stronger cyclones following upper steering currents.
It seems like the best in the business are saying the CONUS is favored for landfalls this year, but even they admit it's almost impossible to tell more than 2 weeks out.
What are you seeing different?
Is it even moving? LOL
GAH!!! I meant thunder!!! darn you!!!! :P
Win
+1
I said that an hour ago and got reemed for it lol
guess it does matter who says it :P LOL
sure wish I could go play in that, though...
HH isn't where the lowest pressure is yet.
We'll see soon enough.
Data Buoy
Just getting even. :) Hey, we Floridians have to stick together. There are so few of us on this blog. Beginning to get rain now in FLL. Getting very dark. I hear a rumbling of lightning in the background.
LOL...I know how u feel!!
I thinks its because hes Alaskan they trust him more, you know those Alaskans can smell rain in Russia from their houses.
Looks like Nippers pig roast is having a rainy, windy day.
EDIT...Not till Sunday...
lol! i think we might get more rain than what most where thinking this morning seems that the west side of
Emily has much more showers than this morning.
Hey Ocean...yeah...it was creepy...even at the points when i was only in to my knees, the waves started pounding and i was covered past my waist depth wise... like i said, we are use to the ocean and currents, i have an app on my phone for tides and such...and the waves came in angled from the south...they usually come in a little angled but these seemed more emphasized today...and strangest part was the tide seemed higher today, it was only 2 ft from the high tide drop off edge 3.5 hours before high tide...thanks btw for peewee's well wishes...he is ok, hurt his pride some lol...another note tho was a woman not too far with us got nailed on 5 diff parts of her body by jelly fish...ems actually called out on this one...
They found it a long time ago. 1011mb.
Yeah right LOL
Getting some vivid thunder and loud lightening here in North Broward. :)
The convection that is flaring out to the west is giving ex-Emily the illusion that the "whole" system is moving west. It is still drifting north.
Well maybe its because they are expecting the current steering to change, but I don't see why it will...
Also, I'm really not that computer savvy, so I don't know all that HTML crap to be able to post the information I'm looking at. But I'm basing what I'm saying on the dominant steering patterns, they favor storms still avoiding Florida like more of recent years. You aren't my meteorology professor so I don't need to prove to you why, it would be too much trouble that I just don't feel like going through.
And remember, I never said I expect hurricanes to avoid the U.S. I said Florida has an elevated chance of avoiding hurricane landfalls again. I live in Florida so I focus on Florida weather.
Ultimately, nobody should be planning for hurricanes in Florida based on anything I say because I am not a professional, but an early student. So I don't want anyone thinking they can put hurricanes behind them because they live in Florida and I think Florida has a high chance of being avoided again this year.
You're a DCI fan? miracles never cease.
Link?
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