Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT en Agosto 05, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.

Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea

The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.

South-Central U.S. continues to bake

The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:

• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°


Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.

Angela

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At 144 hours, the next strong wave is emerging off the coast of Africa with a low pressure area attached to it:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
I realize everyone is eyeing the 0z GFS, but if you want to, take a look at the blog I just wrote.

I think you'll find that this is the link to your blog.
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1867. java162
Quoting JLPR2:
in 150hrs the GFS is showing two CV systems.



i noticed that as well... a repeat of last year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:
Ok, I'm going to ask this question when it's quiet because it would probably anger almost everyone here. It's an honest question though. Why does what seems like 90% of the bloggers here disagree with the NHC forecast so frequently? I've been paying attention closely the last few years, and the NHC never that far off... the storm is almost always within the cone if you track it. I mean the NHC has Ph. D.'s who have been tracking storms for probably an average of twenty years or more. They're the authority. Don't mean to offend anyone.


You are spot on. They are the best-of-the-best and do a great job. A lot of people here spend a lot of time splitting hairs about the forecast but the NHC is almost always correct.
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1865. JLPR2
in 150hrs the GFS is showing two weak CV systems.
Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8706
Quoting KoritheMan:
I realize everyone is eyeing the 0z GFS, but if you want to, take a look at the blog I just wrote.
it says error opening your files
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Quoting JLPR2:


That's our troublesome Emily in the North Central Atl.


Indeed it is...it looks stronger than ever out there. However, I'd be surprised if it were warm core.
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It's barely dripping now. Suppose it'll pick up later....

Member Since: Octubre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22143
Tropical Weather Outlook
Aug, 6th 2015

A large area of disturbed weather persists over the South Western Bahamas and Cuba associated with the Remnants of Emily 2011. There is a high chance 70% of this becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48hrs.

A second area just east of the lesser antillies is showing signs of organization. Should this area develop into a tropical storm we will need to assign a new name as the next up name, Emily, is still being used. There is a high chance 90% of a tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1860. robj144
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Every meteorologist, whether it be an enthusiast, or an expert holding a degree of mastery has their opinion on weather forecasts. The NHC are not miracle workers and can't foresee the future, even if everyone who works for them do hold PH.D. degrees and are experts within the subject. It all goes down to this:

Weather is unpredictable and changes constantly. No one can predict what will change next within the atmosphere, not even highly respected models.


Yes, I do agree. But the NHC has a team, not one, of experts which are legitimate experts. So out of everyone, they will have the best forecast, and they do. Look at Emily...as hard as this storm was to predict if you look at a time evolution of the official track, they were pretty much accurate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I've been watching the Great Salt Lake for possible TC development but so far....nada.

LOL Lake Michigan isn't producing any, either. But we did get Snowpocalypse back in February. It's a shame we don't have any of that snow left to send to Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm usually a lurker too. I'm from San Antonio.

No sign of aurora here tonight. I used to see it when I lived in Wisconsin.
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Link ONLY One model takes Emily inland making a threat to Greensboro, NC!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1856. 786
Quoting Grothar:



Looks all west for a while.



To me the position of the high would enable weaker storms to travel west in the central atlantic. If it became a strong system after 60W it would travel north of PR and DR and skirt around the high out to sea, if it stayed weak it would go through the Caribbean, if it became strong before 60W then it would follow the weakness in the central Atlantic and be a fish storm. Is that correct?

Would this be the pattern setting up?
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Quoting robj144:
Ok, I'm going to ask this question when it's quiet because it would probably anger almost everyone here. It's an honest question though. Why does what seems like 90% of the bloggers here disagree with the NHC forecast so frequently? I've been paying attention closely the last few years, and the NHC never that far off... the storm is almost always within the cone if you track it. I mean the NHC has Ph. D.'s who have been tracking storms for probably an average of twenty years or more. They're the authority. Don't mean to offend anyone.


I think it's ok to question the NHC, It's like a student questioning a teacher to learn more. I would never shoot them down if they got anything wrong. Weather is not an exact science, it's always changing.
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Quoting java162:





given its way in the middle of the atlantic and the models have it developing this early.. i suspect franklyn will be our first hurricane. jmo
what Franklin the turtle?
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1852. java162
Quoting MississippiWx:
120:





prospect track.... i see the models seem to be taking it westward at the moment?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:
Ok, I'm going to ask this question when it's quiet because it would probably anger almost everyone here. It's an honest question though. Why does what seems like 90% of the bloggers here disagree with the NHC forecast so frequently? I've been paying attention closely the last few years, and the NHC never that far off... the storm is almost always within the cone if you track it. I mean the NHC has Ph. D.'s who have been tracking storms for probably an average of twenty years or more. They're the authority. Don't mean to offend anyone.


Every meteorologist, whether it be an enthusiast, or an expert holding a degree of mastery has their opinion on weather forecasts. The NHC should be respected for their decisions and forecasts but they are not miracle workers and can't foresee the future (in a weather perspective), even if everyone who works for them do hold PH.D. degrees and are experts within the subject. It all goes down to this:

Weather is unpredictable and changes constantly. No one can predict what will change next within the atmosphere, not even highly respected models or people holding degrees in meteorology.
Member Since: Junio 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
1850. hcubed
Quoting klew136:


Scientists awarded patent for new hurricane intensity scale

http://www.keysnet.com/2011/08/05/365464/scientis ts-awarded-patent-for.html


Interesting, and does link to a NOAA page, with links to historical hurricanes (by year, then storm).

NOAA Surface Wind Analysis

Called the H*Wind Project:

"...The purpose is to develop an integrated tropical cyclone observing system in which wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms could be used to develop an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a hurricane..."

Appears to be a detailed analysis of wind fields as time went by.
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Things have calmed down quite a bit with wave Emily limping towards the north. We have a clean board all the way to Africa and as I have been predicting a couple of weeks of quiet tropics. Who knows, maybe our hot high will continue to steer and shear systems away.



I am at my happiest when the weather is quiet. I dream of a future where only weak cool fronts and gentle tropical waves will allow for a new age of climate stability like we had in the past.
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1848. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:
120:



That's our troublesome Emily in the North Central Atl.
Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8706
1847. Grothar
Quoting robj144:
Ok, I'm going to ask this question when it's quiet because it would probably anger almost everyone here. It's an honest question though. Why does what seems like 90% of the bloggers here disagree with the NHC forecast so frequently? I've been paying attention closely the last few years, and the NHC never that far off... the storm is almost always within the cone if you track it. I mean the NHC has Ph. D.'s who have been tracking storms for probably an average of twenty years or more. They're the authority. Don't mean to offend anyone.


Ego.
Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26153
Quoting Grothar:


They let us stay up late on Friday nights. We have to wind down from Bingo.


LOL. That is too funny...Thanks for the laugh.
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120:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1844. robj144
Ok, I'm going to ask this question when it's quiet because it would probably anger almost everyone here. It's an honest question though. Why does what seems like 90% of the bloggers here disagree with the NHC forecast so frequently? I've been paying attention closely the last few years, and the NHC never that far off... the storm is almost always within the cone if you track it. I mean the NHC has Ph. D.'s who have been tracking storms for probably an average of twenty years or more. They're the authority. Don't mean to offend anyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oceanbug:


Where snow is a greater threat than surge??


I've been watching the Great Salt Lake for possible TC development but so far....nada.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1842. Thrawst
Quoting EricSFL:


You're in New Providence?


Same here... seeing some good flashes...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1841. Grothar
Quoting MississippiWx:


Isn't it past your bedtime, old man?


They let us stay up late on Friday nights. We have to wind down from Bingo.
Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26153
1840. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


I think the stronger system has been later in the run...we'll see if it pops up again.


I believe the 12z Euro has a weak system and only strengthens it by the end of the run.
Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8706
Quoting MississippiWx:


Isn't it past your bedtime, old man?


Silly boy....He just got up....Mornin' Grothar!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Allan's page version looks nicer. :)


Agreed! It's much easier to see things, in my opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1837. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:
00z GFS still holding onto the possible Cape Verde development next week.

GFS 60 hours:



Allan's page version looks nicer. :)
Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8706
1836. EricSFL
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yep. Nice ship in the avatat pic, btw.


Thanks. lol I'm pretty sure it calls in Nassau on alternate routes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1835. java162
Quoting JLPR2:
GFS 90hrs...


Showing a weak system.





given its way in the middle of the atlantic and the models have it developing this early.. i suspect franklyn will be our first hurricane. jmo
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Quoting JLPR2:
GFS 90hrs...


Showing a weak system.


I think the stronger system has been later in the run...we'll see if it pops up again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1833. robj144
Quoting oceanbug:

I did! So far no aurora, although there's significant light pollution where I am. Scattered clouds are moving in. Maybe in an hour or so I'll hop in the car and drive to a darker area. The peak will be around 1:30 am Central time, right?


Yes, I think that's correct.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:




I have lived in Winter Park, Mount Dora, and Sorrento. But now I live in ....hmmm....where am I?


Where snow is a greater threat than surge??
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Quoting Grothar:
Doesn't look quite as good as before, but still looks like NW. Link animation below::::




Link




Isn't it past your bedtime, old man?
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http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#Ge omagneticStorms link above to NOAA Space website, scroll down to see chart and how they classify the severity of magnetic storms on a G scale.
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Quoting robj144:


Go outside and check out the aurora.

I did! So far no aurora, although there's significant light pollution where I am. Scattered clouds are moving in. Maybe in an hour or so I'll hop in the car and drive to a darker area. The peak will be around 1:30 am Central time, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1828. JLPR2
GFS 90hrs...


Showing a weak system.

And 102hrs...


GFS is showing persistence.
Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8706
Quoting rv1pop:
You are now a Spudnut -- (a raised donut made with potato flour)


I've been called worse!.....(I think)
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Quoting EricSFL:


You're in New Providence?
Yep. Nice ship in the avatat pic, btw.
Member Since: Octubre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22143
1825. Grothar
Doesn't look quite as good as before, but still looks like NW. Link animation below::::




Link


Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26153
1824. cwf1069
Can somebody explain me how to download my avatar. I did once but I forgot. Thank you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1823. EricSFL
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening, all. Just a quick lookin to say it looks like we are on schedule for rain / thundershowers from ex-Emily. I just heard some thunder off to the SE, so I guess we'll get some rain soon.



You're in New Providence?
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1822. rv1pop
Quoting PrivateIdaho:




I have lived in Winter Park, Mount Dora, and Sorrento. But now I live in ....hmmm....where am I?
You are now a Spudnut -- (a raised donut made with potato flour)
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1821. Mucinex
Quoting robj144:


Thanks. That's probably the Panama they're talking about.

There is also a Panama, NY just across the border from Pennsylvania
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1820. 786
I def. Want to learn how to eventually understand the steering to I can appreciate how and where storms will be steered. I have learnt tons on this blog thank you!
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Remember PI...You're that southern born boy...who went Yankee....lol...:/


Few Yankees this far west lots more in Fl.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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