Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Yes is is becoming very interesting to see how it is quite well organizing a this time, as you said, I see some convection trying to get going around that area and moving to the west, lets see what the visible image shows on the mroning.
Understood, so the spin of the hurricane about its center is something like L cos x, where x is co-latitude and L is the angular momentum of the spin of the hurricane. This component is what is factored into the chart along with the the angular momentum about the surface.
Hmm, doing better.
Ummm... yeah, sure enough. May not be upgraded back to TD status at 5am, but it is sure fighting back to life. But I am thinking that the center mark that it has is too far to the southeast. I am thinking, based on radar and satellite, it to be near 24N 78W moving slowly WWD
You mean L sin(x)....cos(90 degrees) = 0....and we don't want that, because a hurricane centered at the north pole yields the greatest angular momentum increase to the atmosphere.
*Edit nvm...you meant about the hurricane's axis, not the Earth's. Sorry, I'm tired lol.
About the Earth's axis, factored into the maps I posted, would be Lsin(x) though, or something similar. Torque is also a consideration, as the distance to the axis is changing on a sphere.
I said the co-latitude where the North Pole is zero degrees, so it is max at the north pole.
Warmer ocean, bigger warmer ocean, almost no land in the way, and the fact that they are usually formed from the monsoon. Atlantic storms and some eastern Pacific storms are formed from tropical waves, which are usually fairly small entities, which helps keep them small.
I thought you meant literal latitude. Perhaps I turned "co-" into "cos-" in my mind....again, tired lol.
The torque's lever arm is like R sin x, where x is the co-latitude and R is the radius of the Earth.
If I were to take a guess, it would probably have to do with area to grow, but also they have higher SSTs in that area of the world, causing greater evaporation over a larger area condensing and causing the clouds.
Part of its ego.
Part of its based on logic and reasoning. One thing about the NHC is they strongly follow model consensus. They don't follow it exactly, but the forecast tracks and intensities are based primarily off model consensus. Why? Because they can't say the "I have a hunch" yada yada. There is no room for gut feelings when lives and property are at stake. Obviously, the NHC is forecast is not 100% model based, and I'm not calling them model worshipers, but it goes to show that there is some reasoning behind disagreeing with the NHC on occasion.
Another part of it is just general ignorance, and/or not knowing any better. For example, thinking a storm will become a major because of warm SSTs while completely ignoring the upper level conditions.
I wish....if I wasn't lazy I would just do it in LibreOffice Math and the post screenies here.
Anyway, I'm gonna hit the sack now. Great discussion Rob. Thanks for having it with me.
It's this really neat concept called "Internet Experts". The VAST majority of people who comment on blogs are not representing any official position or group .... only themselves. As such, they don't have to worry about screwing up. In the REAL world (meaning not the virtual one), 90% of the people who engage in this type of "expertism" & have employment related to the subject they pretend to be an expert in, would have already been discredited, fired, laughed at, & humiliated into oblivion.
But on the net, you can anonymously pretend to know completely what's going on all you want to, & make claims that you're the world's leading expert in your pretend-field. And you can also discredit every single person, company, & entity which actually DOES hold a real-world position in the specific field .... such as the NHC.
Shoot, those idiots don't have even 10% of the knowledge & experience as most all "experts" on the internet have. I mean really, these internet guys all have 3 Bachelors, 2 Masters, 1 Doctorate, & an Honorary Degree from each of the 100 most respected universities in the world. We know this is true because they tell us so.
And then what happens when you run your mouth about the huge expertise you have about hurricanes ..... and then completely screw up in front of the world, when the hurricane that your personally-invented models show has a 100% chance of plowing into Brownsville .... changes it's mind & hits Iceland? Well, that's easy to fix. You simply quit posting on whatever forum you were using, disappear for a week or so, then come back with a completely new user-name & completely new profile.
And then you just start right back at the beginning, deciding which & how many degrees you are going to give yourself, and how many decades you're going to claim that you've been in the professional hurricane predicting field.
99% of the people on the internet don't have to answer for ANYTHING they say or claim, even if they are proven dead-wrong. And right there is what breeds these Internet-Experts who have 20X the experience of everyone at the NHC combined. :) :)
Yes it is west of Andros island and it is trying to organize better,hope people here in Miami are aware that Ex-emily is probably coming here, For sure we can use the rain, but the question is how strong will it get in those bath-water of the gulf stream, Let's watch the show ex-emily want to do
Levi, get to bed. :)
22.8n77.0w, 23.7n77.5w, 24.6n77.9w are now the most recent positions
TropicalWaveEmily's travel-speed was 11.2mph(18k/h) on a heading of 337.9degrees(NNW)
The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Copy&paste 20.0n73.8w, 21.1n75.2w-21.9n76.1w, 21.9n76.1w-22.8n77.0w, 22.8n77.0w-23.7n77.5w, 23.7n77.5w-24.6n77.9w, pbi, fpo, asd, 23.7n77.5w-26.515n78.77w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TW.Emily was headed toward passage over Hawksbill,GrandBahama ~9&1/2 hours from now
then BlackbeardIslandNationalWildlifeRefuge,Georgia(31. 49n81.20w)~1day19hours from now
Take a look at the previous mapping to see how the NHC's re-evaluation&alteration of the old coordinates altered the track.
I'm out for now, have a good night/morning everyone.
So with this heat/drought I figured I better go ahead and introduce myself now because I could combust at any moment. So if anyone's up... I'm CC, Texan, female, 40(ish)lol and I've been here faithfully since 2005, even in the off season. I seldom post because I could always find out what I wanted to know just by reading the blogs, and I've learned a lot, laughed a lot, rolled my eyes a lot, right along with y'all. So if you're ever here on the night-shift and think you're alone, check the dark corners, cuz I'm probably here. (If I'm not, that probably means the Texas 'death ridge' has turned me into dust along with everything else).
CC
Steering could get interesting ... or she's just up and outta here.
You know with the US' credit downgrade and debt issues, maybe they'll have to sell the names to companies...
Might even fund another Quikscat...
Or have each storm sponsored- like a soccer team or a race team.
"Our latest models for Tropical Storm Emily presented by Allstate indicate a NW movement."
Hi cc. Good to see there are other lurkers out there besides myself.
I used to post a few years back until the blogs got infected with personal attacks when someone would make a forecast. I just sit back and read now. There is good info on here however. Emily is about to head north then northeast bypassing the peninsula.
Yes! Each forecaster could even have their forecast sponsored. I'm sure Avila and Beven can command a decent price...
We are onto a winner. ;)
Welcome CC45. I too am a lurker. Don't post very often, read alot and have found a wealth of info here. Have found "friends" that I look forward to reading everyday, and people that I respect their opinion. I'm mostly here on the nite shift. We have some very smart young people (Levi), and feel some comfort during threats that help me understand official forcasts
Yes, and of course, and so what?
We are in the drought too. Keep breaking records, gardens dead, Livestock looking sorry, Power outage in the future. PLEASE let this high go away! I seldom do anything but lurk faifully:) Emily has been as doozy to watch. Everyone agrees to disagree about pretty much everything
LEONA Baldwin's husband saw it first, and she got on the marine radio to alert others in the remote Alaska village of Kivalina that a strange orange goo was sitting on top of the town's harbour.
The news attracted all the townspeople, anxious to get a gander of the phenomenon that covered much of the harbour and then began washing ashore on Wednesday.
The next day it rained, and residents found the orange matter floating on top of the rain buckets they use to collect drinking water. It was also found on one roof, leading them to believe whatever it was, it was airborne, too.
By today, the orange substance in the lagoon had dissipated or washed out to sea, and what was left on ground had dried to a powdery substance.
Samples of the orange matter were collected in canning jars and sent to a lab in Anchorage for analysis.
Until results are known, Kivalina's 374 residents will likely continue to wonder just what exactly happened in their village.
"Certainly at this point it's a mystery," said Emanuel Hignutt, a chemist with the state Department of Environmental Conservation lab in Anchorage.
Kivalina, an Inupiat Eskimo village, is located at the tip of a 13-kilometre barrier reef on Alaska's north-west coast, and is located between the Chukchi Sea and Kivalina River to the north and the Wulik River to the south.
Villagers have never seen anything like this before, and elders have never heard any stories passed down from earlier generations about an orange-coloured substance coming into town.
Portions of the samples will also be sent to the University of Alaska Fairbanks and to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration lab in South Carolina for testing.
"There's a number of experts in the areas who can identify if it's an organic material, for example, and what species this is, or perhaps it's not an organic material, and we're going to determine that, as well," Mr Hignutt said.
The Coast Guard already has ruled out that the orange material, which some people described as having a semi-solid feel to it, was man-made or a petroleum product.
That leaves algae as the best guess, said village administrator Janet Mitchell.
The concern is if it's somehow harmful. What will it do to fish, which villagers will soon start catching to stock up for winter, or the caribou currently being hunted, or the berries?
"We rely 100 per cent on subsistence," she said.
When the material bunched up in the lagoon, it created three-metre-by-30-metre swaths of glimmering orange.
"The colour was a bright neon orange," said resident Frances Douglas.
"Everybody was baffled," she said.
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